Fertility in USA: Difference between revisions

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Most of the data on this page comes from the [[Human Fertility Database]] (website [http://www.humanfertility.org www.humanfertility.org]) (data downloaded December 2013, last updated January 2013). The data collected by the Human Fertility Database is based on government data collection by the United States government. Details about the modalities of data collection are available [http://www.humanfertility.org/Docs/USA/USAcom.pdf here].
Most of the data on this page comes from the [[Human Fertility Database]] (website [http://www.humanfertility.org www.humanfertility.org]) (data downloaded December 2013, last updated January 2013). The data collected by the Human Fertility Database is based on government data collection by the United States government. Details about the modalities of data collection are available [http://www.humanfertility.org/Docs/USA/USAcom.pdf here].
==Data on period fertility==
===Data on total indicators only without breakdown by birth order===
{| class="sortable" border="1"
!Year|| [[crude birth rate|CBR]] (births per 1000 people per year) ||CBR minus previous year's CBR ||[[total fertility rate|TFR]] (sum of all [[age-specific fertility rate]]s), ballpark for [[replacement fertility]] is 2.1||TFR minus previous year's TFR|| TFR40 (sum of [[age-specific fertility rate]]s up to the age of 40), almost equal to TFR because births above the age of 40 are rare ||TFR40 minus previous year's TFR40
|-
| 1933 || 16.57 ||  || 2.012 ||  || 1.911 ||
|-
| 1934 || 17.15 || 0.58 || 2.072 || 0.06 || 1.973 || 0.062
|-
| 1935 || 16.93 || -0.22 || 2.038 || -0.034 || 1.944 || -0.029
|-
| 1936 || 16.75 || -0.18 || 2.007 || -0.031 || 1.919 || -0.025
|-
| 1937 || 17.09 || 0.34 || 2.038 || 0.031 || 1.955 || 0.036
|-
| 1938 || 17.61 || 0.52 || 2.092 || 0.054 || 2.01 || 0.055
|-
| 1939 || 17.3 || -0.31 || 2.05 || -0.042 || 1.974 || -0.036
|-
| 1940 || 17.88 || 0.58 || 2.113 || 0.063 || 2.037 || 0.063
|-
| 1941 || 18.89 || 1.01 || 2.226 || 0.113 || 2.152 || 0.115
|-
| 1942 || 20.99 || 2.1 || 2.465 || 0.239 || 2.392 || 0.24
|-
| 1943 || 21.92 || 0.93 || 2.566 || 0.101 || 2.489 || 0.097
|-
| 1944 || 20.99 || -0.93 || 2.439 || -0.127 || 2.359 || -0.13
|-
| 1945 || 20.33 || -0.66 || 2.38 || -0.059 || 2.297 || -0.062
|-
| 1946 || 23.67 || 3.34 || 2.83 || 0.45 || 2.747 || 0.45
|-
| 1947 || 25.82 || 2.15 || 3.161 || 0.331 || 3.077 || 0.33
|-
| 1948 || 24.2 || -1.62 || 3.009 || -0.152 || 2.93 || -0.147
|-
| 1949 || 23.94 || -0.26 || 3.022 || 0.013 || 2.945 || 0.015
|-
| 1950 || 23.52 || -0.42 || 3.02 || -0.002 || 2.944 || -0.001
|-
| 1951 || 24.45 || 0.93 || 3.203 || 0.183 || 3.124 || 0.18
|-
| 1952 || 24.7 || 0.25 || 3.302 || 0.099 || 3.222 || 0.098
|-
| 1953 || 24.65 || -0.05 || 3.372 || 0.07 || 3.292 || 0.07
|-
| 1954 || 24.92 || 0.27 || 3.494 || 0.122 || 3.411 || 0.119
|-
| 1955 || 24.64 || -0.28 || 3.538 || 0.044 || 3.456 || 0.045
|-
| 1956 || 24.88 || 0.24 || 3.654 || 0.116 || 3.57 || 0.114
|-
| 1957 || 24.97 || 0.09 || 3.738 || 0.084 || 3.654 || 0.084
|-
| 1958 || 24.25 || -0.72 || 3.689 || -0.049 || 3.609 || -0.045
|-
| 1959 || 23.96 || -0.29 || 3.689 || 0 || 3.609 || 0
|-
| 1960 || 23.65 || -0.31 || 3.667 || -0.022 || 3.587 || -0.022
|-
| 1961 || 23.33 || -0.32 || 3.626 || -0.041 || 3.545 || -0.042
|-
| 1962 || 22.43 || -0.9 || 3.481 || -0.145 || 3.403 || -0.142
|-
| 1963 || 21.74 || -0.69 || 3.354 || -0.127 || 3.28 || -0.123
|-
| 1964 || 21.07 || -0.67 || 3.222 || -0.132 || 3.149 || -0.131
|-
| 1965 || 19.43 || -1.64 || 2.926 || -0.296 || 2.858 || -0.291
|-
| 1966 || 18.44 || -0.99 || 2.714 || -0.212 || 2.651 || -0.207
|-
| 1967 || 17.83 || -0.61 || 2.564 || -0.15 || 2.507 || -0.144
|-
| 1968 || 17.56 || -0.27 || 2.467 || -0.097 || 2.416 || -0.091
|-
| 1969 || 17.86 || 0.3 || 2.457 || -0.01 || 2.41 || -0.006
|-
| 1970 || 18.29 || 0.43 || 2.461 || 0.004 || 2.417 || 0.007
|-
| 1971 || 17.2 || -1.09 || 2.268 || -0.193 || 2.23 || -0.187
|-
| 1972 || 15.58 || -1.62 || 2.008 || -0.26 || 1.975 || -0.255
|-
| 1973 || 14.85 || -0.73 || 1.871 || -0.137 || 1.842 || -0.133
|-
| 1974 || 14.82 || -0.03 || 1.827 || -0.044 || 1.802 || -0.04
|-
| 1975 || 14.6 || -0.22 || 1.769 || -0.058 || 1.744 || -0.058
|-
| 1976 || 14.57 || -0.03 || 1.739 || -0.03 || 1.716 || -0.028
|-
| 1977 || 15.14 || 0.57 || 1.783 || 0.044 || 1.761 || 0.045
|-
| 1978 || 15.01 || -0.13 || 1.747 || -0.036 || 1.727 || -0.034
|-
| 1979 || 15.57 || 0.56 || 1.795 || 0.048 || 1.774 || 0.047
|-
| 1980 || 15.91 || 0.34 || 1.821 || 0.026 || 1.801 || 0.027
|-
| 1981 || 15.82 || -0.09 || 1.805 || -0.016 || 1.785 || -0.016
|-
| 1982 || 15.89 || 0.07 || 1.814 || 0.009 || 1.794 || 0.009
|-
| 1983 || 15.57 || -0.32 || 1.783 || -0.031 || 1.764 || -0.03
|-
| 1984 || 15.56 || -0.01 || 1.792 || 0.009 || 1.773 || 0.009
|-
| 1985 || 15.81 || 0.25 || 1.835 || 0.043 || 1.815 || 0.042
|-
| 1986 || 15.65 || -0.16 || 1.835 || 0 || 1.814 || -0.001
|-
| 1987 || 15.73 || 0.08 || 1.865 || 0.03 || 1.843 || 0.029
|-
| 1988 || 15.99 || 0.26 || 1.922 || 0.057 || 1.898 || 0.055
|-
| 1989 || 16.37 || 0.38 || 1.999 || 0.077 || 1.974 || 0.076
|-
| 1990 || 16.66 || 0.29 || 2.069 || 0.07 || 2.042 || 0.068
|-
| 1991 || 16.26 || -0.4 || 2.058 || -0.011 || 2.029 || -0.013
|-
| 1992 || 15.85 || -0.41 || 2.043 || -0.015 || 2.013 || -0.016
|-
| 1993 || 15.4 || -0.45 || 2.019 || -0.024 || 1.988 || -0.025
|-
| 1994 || 15.03 || -0.37 || 2.003 || -0.016 || 1.971 || -0.017
|-
| 1995 || 14.66 || -0.37 || 1.982 || -0.021 || 1.948 || -0.023
|-
| 1996 || 14.46 || -0.2 || 1.98 || -0.002 || 1.945 || -0.003
|-
| 1997 || 14.25 || -0.21 || 1.974 || -0.006 || 1.938 || -0.007
|-
| 1998 || 14.3 || 0.05 || 2.003 || 0.029 || 1.965 || 0.027
|-
| 1999 || 14.21 || -0.09 || 2.009 || 0.006 || 1.97 || 0.005
|-
| 2000 || 14.41 || 0.2 || 2.054 || 0.045 || 2.012 || 0.042
|-
| 2001 || 14.15 || -0.26 || 2.031 || -0.023 || 1.989 || -0.023
|-
| 2002 || 14 || -0.15 || 2.024 || -0.007 || 1.981 || -0.008
|-
| 2003 || 14.11 || 0.11 || 2.053 || 0.029 || 2.007 || 0.026
|-
| 2004 || 14.06 || -0.05 || 2.058 || 0.005 || 2.01 || 0.003
|-
| 2005 || 14.01 || -0.05 || 2.061 || 0.003 || 2.012 || 0.002
|-
| 2006 || 14.3 || 0.29 || 2.112 || 0.051 || 2.061 || 0.049
|-
| 2007 || 14.33 || 0.03 || 2.122 || 0.01 || 2.07 || 0.009
|-
| 2008 || 13.97 || -0.36 || 2.074 || -0.048 || 2.02 || -0.05
|-
| 2009 || 13.47 || -0.5 || 2.002 || -0.072 || 1.948 || -0.072
|-
| 2010 || 12.94 || -0.53 || 1.928 || -0.074 || 1.874 || -0.074
|-
! Mean || 18.0137179487 || -0.0471428571 || 2.3858333333 || -0.0010909091 || 2.3314102564 || -0.0004805195
|-
! Median || 16.615 || -0.13 || 2.0595 || -0.002 || 2.012 || -0.001
|-
! Standard deviation || 3.8378718091 || 0.7508203534 || 0.6196736765 || 0.1109433452 || 0.6026563156 || 0.1096561144
|-
! Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) || -0.1170643281 || -0.0066822651 || -0.0128025519 || -0.0008526999 || -0.0119700806 || -0.000900021
|-
! Multiplier for best log-linear fit (using linear regression on the logarithm) || 0.993534563 ||  || 0.9949225462 ||  || 0.9951862764 ||
|}

Revision as of 21:57, 27 January 2014

Data sources

Most of the data on this page comes from the Human Fertility Database (website www.humanfertility.org) (data downloaded December 2013, last updated January 2013). The data collected by the Human Fertility Database is based on government data collection by the United States government. Details about the modalities of data collection are available here.

Data on period fertility

Data on total indicators only without breakdown by birth order

Year CBR (births per 1000 people per year) CBR minus previous year's CBR TFR (sum of all age-specific fertility rates), ballpark for replacement fertility is 2.1 TFR minus previous year's TFR TFR40 (sum of age-specific fertility rates up to the age of 40), almost equal to TFR because births above the age of 40 are rare TFR40 minus previous year's TFR40
1933 16.57 2.012 1.911
1934 17.15 0.58 2.072 0.06 1.973 0.062
1935 16.93 -0.22 2.038 -0.034 1.944 -0.029
1936 16.75 -0.18 2.007 -0.031 1.919 -0.025
1937 17.09 0.34 2.038 0.031 1.955 0.036
1938 17.61 0.52 2.092 0.054 2.01 0.055
1939 17.3 -0.31 2.05 -0.042 1.974 -0.036
1940 17.88 0.58 2.113 0.063 2.037 0.063
1941 18.89 1.01 2.226 0.113 2.152 0.115
1942 20.99 2.1 2.465 0.239 2.392 0.24
1943 21.92 0.93 2.566 0.101 2.489 0.097
1944 20.99 -0.93 2.439 -0.127 2.359 -0.13
1945 20.33 -0.66 2.38 -0.059 2.297 -0.062
1946 23.67 3.34 2.83 0.45 2.747 0.45
1947 25.82 2.15 3.161 0.331 3.077 0.33
1948 24.2 -1.62 3.009 -0.152 2.93 -0.147
1949 23.94 -0.26 3.022 0.013 2.945 0.015
1950 23.52 -0.42 3.02 -0.002 2.944 -0.001
1951 24.45 0.93 3.203 0.183 3.124 0.18
1952 24.7 0.25 3.302 0.099 3.222 0.098
1953 24.65 -0.05 3.372 0.07 3.292 0.07
1954 24.92 0.27 3.494 0.122 3.411 0.119
1955 24.64 -0.28 3.538 0.044 3.456 0.045
1956 24.88 0.24 3.654 0.116 3.57 0.114
1957 24.97 0.09 3.738 0.084 3.654 0.084
1958 24.25 -0.72 3.689 -0.049 3.609 -0.045
1959 23.96 -0.29 3.689 0 3.609 0
1960 23.65 -0.31 3.667 -0.022 3.587 -0.022
1961 23.33 -0.32 3.626 -0.041 3.545 -0.042
1962 22.43 -0.9 3.481 -0.145 3.403 -0.142
1963 21.74 -0.69 3.354 -0.127 3.28 -0.123
1964 21.07 -0.67 3.222 -0.132 3.149 -0.131
1965 19.43 -1.64 2.926 -0.296 2.858 -0.291
1966 18.44 -0.99 2.714 -0.212 2.651 -0.207
1967 17.83 -0.61 2.564 -0.15 2.507 -0.144
1968 17.56 -0.27 2.467 -0.097 2.416 -0.091
1969 17.86 0.3 2.457 -0.01 2.41 -0.006
1970 18.29 0.43 2.461 0.004 2.417 0.007
1971 17.2 -1.09 2.268 -0.193 2.23 -0.187
1972 15.58 -1.62 2.008 -0.26 1.975 -0.255
1973 14.85 -0.73 1.871 -0.137 1.842 -0.133
1974 14.82 -0.03 1.827 -0.044 1.802 -0.04
1975 14.6 -0.22 1.769 -0.058 1.744 -0.058
1976 14.57 -0.03 1.739 -0.03 1.716 -0.028
1977 15.14 0.57 1.783 0.044 1.761 0.045
1978 15.01 -0.13 1.747 -0.036 1.727 -0.034
1979 15.57 0.56 1.795 0.048 1.774 0.047
1980 15.91 0.34 1.821 0.026 1.801 0.027
1981 15.82 -0.09 1.805 -0.016 1.785 -0.016
1982 15.89 0.07 1.814 0.009 1.794 0.009
1983 15.57 -0.32 1.783 -0.031 1.764 -0.03
1984 15.56 -0.01 1.792 0.009 1.773 0.009
1985 15.81 0.25 1.835 0.043 1.815 0.042
1986 15.65 -0.16 1.835 0 1.814 -0.001
1987 15.73 0.08 1.865 0.03 1.843 0.029
1988 15.99 0.26 1.922 0.057 1.898 0.055
1989 16.37 0.38 1.999 0.077 1.974 0.076
1990 16.66 0.29 2.069 0.07 2.042 0.068
1991 16.26 -0.4 2.058 -0.011 2.029 -0.013
1992 15.85 -0.41 2.043 -0.015 2.013 -0.016
1993 15.4 -0.45 2.019 -0.024 1.988 -0.025
1994 15.03 -0.37 2.003 -0.016 1.971 -0.017
1995 14.66 -0.37 1.982 -0.021 1.948 -0.023
1996 14.46 -0.2 1.98 -0.002 1.945 -0.003
1997 14.25 -0.21 1.974 -0.006 1.938 -0.007
1998 14.3 0.05 2.003 0.029 1.965 0.027
1999 14.21 -0.09 2.009 0.006 1.97 0.005
2000 14.41 0.2 2.054 0.045 2.012 0.042
2001 14.15 -0.26 2.031 -0.023 1.989 -0.023
2002 14 -0.15 2.024 -0.007 1.981 -0.008
2003 14.11 0.11 2.053 0.029 2.007 0.026
2004 14.06 -0.05 2.058 0.005 2.01 0.003
2005 14.01 -0.05 2.061 0.003 2.012 0.002
2006 14.3 0.29 2.112 0.051 2.061 0.049
2007 14.33 0.03 2.122 0.01 2.07 0.009
2008 13.97 -0.36 2.074 -0.048 2.02 -0.05
2009 13.47 -0.5 2.002 -0.072 1.948 -0.072
2010 12.94 -0.53 1.928 -0.074 1.874 -0.074
Mean 18.0137179487 -0.0471428571 2.3858333333 -0.0010909091 2.3314102564 -0.0004805195
Median 16.615 -0.13 2.0595 -0.002 2.012 -0.001
Standard deviation 3.8378718091 0.7508203534 0.6196736765 0.1109433452 0.6026563156 0.1096561144
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) -0.1170643281 -0.0066822651 -0.0128025519 -0.0008526999 -0.0119700806 -0.000900021
Multiplier for best log-linear fit (using linear regression on the logarithm) 0.993534563 0.9949225462 0.9951862764
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