Fertility in Russia
From Demography
This page gives information of type fertility about the country Russia.
See all pages giving information on fertility for particular countries|See all pages giving information about Russia
Contents
Data sources
Some data on this page comes from the Human Fertility Database (website www.humanfertility.org) (data downloaded January 2014, last updated by HFD April 2012). The data collected by the Human Fertility Database is based on government data collection by the government of Russia. You can download the data yourself here. Details about the modalities of data collection are available here. Where available, we use HFD data because of its higher reliability.
Qualitative history of fertility-relevant events and trends
Key events
See Wikipedia:Abortion in Russia.
| Year | Event | Postulated effects seen in abortion statistics |
|---|---|---|
| 1920 | Abortion was made legal by the Bolshevik government as part of their "Decree on Women's Healthcare" -- it was seen as a temporary necessity given that many women were not financially prepared to have kids because of the devastation caused by the war. | No data available |
| 1936 | Abortion was made illegal because the leader, Joseph Stalin, wanted a larger population for greater national power. The law was unpopular. | No data available |
| 1955 | Abortion was made legal again, shortly following Stalin's death in 1953. | No data available |
| 1993 | Legal restrictions on sterilization were removed | Decline in the abortion ratio from 1993 to 1994 -- the abortion ratio was quite high in 1992-1993 relative to what it was both earlier and later, suggesting that sterilization might have prevented further rise in the abortion ratio (note that the abortion rate was declining anyway, because the number of pregnancies overall was declining). |
| 2011 | Legal abortion was restricted to the first 12 weeks after pregnancy, with exception for abortion in the case of rape (22 weeks) and in case of medical necessity (any time prior to birth) | No data available (too recent) |
Trends in period fertility
Reliable data prior to 1959 is not available, so we concentrate on the trends from 1959 onward.
| Time period | Trend in fertility | Some numbers | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1959-1968 | moderately paced decrease | CBR decreased from 23.61 to 14.07 TFR decreased from 2.583 to 1.97 |
The starting point for the decrease may have been earlier (like 1955, when abortion was made legal again) but we don't have reliable data prior to 1959. |
| 1968-1980 | relative stability, also slight divergence between CBR and TFR | CBR increased from 14.07 to 15.91 (peaking at 15.91 in 1978) TFR decreased from 1.97 to 1.863 |
TFR and CBR both increased somewhat at the beginning of the period, then around 1973, TFR started declining whereas CBR continued to increase somewhat. Overall changes in both were minor. |
| 1980-1987 | modest increase | CBR increased from 15.91 to 17.2 TFR increased from 1.863 to 2.229 |
|
| 1987-1999 | rapid decrease | CBR decreased from 17.2 to 8.32 TFR decreased from 2.229 to 1.158 |
|
| 1999-2010 | modest increase | CBR increased from 8.32 to 12.61 TFR increased from 1.158 to 1.569 |
Trends in cohort fertility
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Key quantitative metrics
Unless otherwise specified, data is from the Human Fertility Database, last updated April 2012.
The "Year" column below gives the period year for period measures, and the birth cohort year for cohort measures. With the exception of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate, all latest period measures are for 2009. Latest cohort measures are 1960 and 1970, the former for the completed measures and the latter for the under-40 measures.
| Metric | Direct fertility measure, comparable with replacement fertility value of 2.1? | Period measure or cohort measure? | Most recent measurement | Year | Extreme values, along with year and source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude birth rate (CBR) | No | Period | 12.61 | 2010 | Data available 1959-2010; maximum value 23.61 in 1959, minimum value 8.32 in 1999. |
| total fertility rate (TFR) | Yes | Period | 1.569 | 2010 | Data available 1959-2010; maximum value 2.583 in 1959, minimum value 1.158 in 1999 |
| TFR40 | Yes(ish) | Period | 1.538 | 2010 | Data available 1959-2010; maximum value 2.467 in 1959, minimum value 1.146 in 1999 |
| CBR proportions by birth order | No | Period | birth orders 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (and more) (respectively): 0.505, 0.360, 0.097, 0.025, 0.013 | 2010 | Data available 1959-2010 |
| TFR proportions by birth order | No | Period | birth orders 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (and more) (respectively): 0.504, 0.358, 0.099, 0.025, 0.014 | 2010 | Data available 1959-2010 |
| Completed cohort fertility | Yes | Cohort | 1.849 | 1960 | Data available for birth cohorts 1944-1960; maximum value 1.89 for 1949 cohort, minimum value 1.766 for 1947 cohort |
| CCF40 | Yes(ish) | Cohort | 1.572 | 1970 | Data available for birth cohorts 1944-1970; maximum value 1.876 for 1954 cohort, minimum value 1.572 for 1970 cohort |
| Mean age at birth | No | Period | 27.6 | 2010 | Data available 1959-2010; minimum value 24.63 in 1994, maximum value 28.19 in 1959 |
| Mean age of childbearing for birth cohorts (CMAC) | No | Cohort | 25.05 | 1960 | Data available for birth cohorts 1944-1960; maximum value 26.28 for 1947 cohort, minimum value 25.05 for 1960 cohort |
| CMAC40 (mean age of childbearing till the age of 40 for birth cohorts) | No | Cohort | 25.12 | 1970 | Data available for birth cohorts 1944-1970; maximum value 26.07 in 1947, minimum value 24.6 in 1965 |
| tempo-adjusted total fertility rate (adjTFR) | Yes | Period (with trend) | 1.822 | 2009 | Data available 1960-2009; maximum value 2.32 in 1962, minimum value 1.358 in 1993 |
Period fertility
Further information: period fertility in Russia
| Year | Crude birth rate (CBR) (births per 1000 people) | CBR minus previous year's CBR | Total fertility rate (TFR) (sum of all age-specific fertility rates), ballpark for replacement fertility is 2.1 | TFR minus previous year's TFR | TFR40 | TFR40 minus previous year's TFR40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1959 | 23.61 | 2.583 | 2.467 | |||
| 1960 | 23.16 | -0.45 | 2.556 | -0.027 | 2.447 | -0.02 |
| 1961 | 21.86 | -1.3 | 2.458 | -0.098 | 2.363 | -0.084 |
| 1962 | 20.14 | -1.72 | 2.34 | -0.118 | 2.252 | -0.111 |
| 1963 | 18.72 | -1.42 | 2.283 | -0.057 | 2.201 | -0.051 |
| 1964 | 16.88 | -1.84 | 2.16 | -0.123 | 2.084 | -0.117 |
| 1965 | 15.71 | -1.17 | 2.087 | -0.073 | 2.017 | -0.067 |
| 1966 | 15.34 | -0.37 | 2.098 | 0.011 | 2.032 | 0.015 |
| 1967 | 14.42 | -0.92 | 2.006 | -0.092 | 1.947 | -0.085 |
| 1968 | 14.07 | -0.35 | 1.97 | -0.036 | 1.913 | -0.034 |
| 1969 | 14.24 | 0.17 | 1.984 | 0.014 | 1.933 | 0.02 |
| 1970 | 14.61 | 0.37 | 1.995 | 0.011 | 1.947 | 0.014 |
| 1971 | 15.08 | 0.47 | 2.024 | 0.029 | 1.979 | 0.032 |
| 1972 | 15.3 | 0.22 | 2.027 | 0.003 | 1.982 | 0.003 |
| 1973 | 15.06 | -0.24 | 1.962 | -0.065 | 1.919 | -0.063 |
| 1974 | 15.61 | 0.55 | 1.995 | 0.033 | 1.953 | 0.034 |
| 1975 | 15.71 | 0.1 | 1.971 | -0.024 | 1.931 | -0.022 |
| 1976 | 15.9 | 0.19 | 1.953 | -0.018 | 1.915 | -0.016 |
| 1977 | 15.86 | -0.04 | 1.918 | -0.035 | 1.884 | -0.031 |
| 1978 | 15.91 | 0.05 | 1.899 | -0.019 | 1.867 | -0.017 |
| 1979 | 15.81 | -0.1 | 1.865 | -0.034 | 1.836 | -0.031 |
| 1980 | 15.91 | 0.1 | 1.863 | -0.002 | 1.837 | 0.001 |
| 1981 | 16.07 | 0.16 | 1.882 | 0.019 | 1.857 | 0.02 |
| 1982 | 16.63 | 0.56 | 1.956 | 0.074 | 1.931 | 0.074 |
| 1983 | 17.57 | 0.94 | 2.088 | 0.132 | 2.063 | 0.132 |
| 1984 | 16.97 | -0.6 | 2.051 | -0.037 | 2.027 | -0.036 |
| 1985 | 16.61 | -0.36 | 2.051 | 0 | 2.028 | 0.001 |
| 1986 | 17.25 | 0.64 | 2.177 | 0.126 | 2.152 | 0.124 |
| 1987 | 17.2 | -0.05 | 2.229 | 0.052 | 2.202 | 0.05 |
| 1988 | 16.03 | -1.17 | 2.142 | -0.087 | 2.116 | -0.086 |
| 1989 | 14.66 | -1.37 | 2.018 | -0.124 | 1.995 | -0.121 |
| 1990 | 13.44 | -1.22 | 1.894 | -0.124 | 1.874 | -0.121 |
| 1991 | 12.09 | -1.35 | 1.733 | -0.161 | 1.715 | -0.159 |
| 1992 | 10.69 | -1.4 | 1.549 | -0.184 | 1.532 | -0.183 |
| 1993 | 9.38 | -1.31 | 1.37 | -0.179 | 1.358 | -0.174 |
| 1994 | 9.59 | 0.21 | 1.395 | 0.025 | 1.383 | 0.025 |
| 1995 | 9.27 | -0.32 | 1.338 | -0.057 | 1.327 | -0.056 |
| 1996 | 8.88 | -0.39 | 1.271 | -0.067 | 1.259 | -0.068 |
| 1997 | 8.59 | -0.29 | 1.219 | -0.052 | 1.208 | -0.051 |
| 1998 | 8.76 | 0.17 | 1.233 | 0.014 | 1.221 | 0.013 |
| 1999 | 8.32 | -0.44 | 1.158 | -0.075 | 1.146 | -0.075 |
| 2000 | 8.7 | 0.38 | 1.196 | 0.038 | 1.183 | 0.037 |
| 2001 | 9.05 | 0.35 | 1.224 | 0.028 | 1.211 | 0.028 |
| 2002 | 9.69 | 0.64 | 1.287 | 0.063 | 1.274 | 0.063 |
| 2003 | 10.22 | 0.53 | 1.333 | 0.046 | 1.318 | 0.044 |
| 2004 | 10.45 | 0.23 | 1.341 | 0.008 | 1.325 | 0.007 |
| 2005 | 10.18 | -0.27 | 1.288 | -0.053 | 1.271 | -0.054 |
| 2006 | 10.39 | 0.21 | 1.296 | 0.008 | 1.278 | 0.007 |
| 2007 | 11.33 | 0.94 | 1.406 | 0.11 | 1.385 | 0.107 |
| 2008 | 12.08 | 0.75 | 1.494 | 0.088 | 1.469 | 0.084 |
| 2009 | 12.41 | 0.33 | 1.537 | 0.043 | 1.509 | 0.04 |
| 2010 | 12.61 | 0.2 | 1.569 | 0.032 | 1.538 | 0.029 |
| Mean | 14.1157692308 | -0.2156862745 | 1.8023461538 | -0.0198823529 | 1.7665576923 | -0.0182156863 |
| Median | 14.86 | -0.04 | 1.9355 | -0.018 | 1.8985 | -0.016 |
| Standard deviation | 3.8021290971 | 0.7335564188 | 0.3919091474 | 0.0737584292 | 0.3715297689 | 0.071963967 |
| Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) | -0.1989567148 | 0.0187963801 | -0.0220988645 | 0.0012877828 | -0.0206610177 | 0.0011103167 |
| Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using linear regression on the logarithm) | 0.9857656066 | 0.9873666048 | 0.9878851946 |
Completed fertility
Further information: completed fertility in Russia
| Cohort | Completed cohort fertility (CCF) | CCF minus previous year's CCF | CCF40 | CCF40 minus previous year's CCF40 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1944 | 1.815 | 1.791 | ||
| 1945 | 1.781 | -0.034 | 1.757 | -0.034 |
| 1946 | 1.836 | 0.055 | 1.811 | 0.054 |
| 1947 | 1.766 | -0.07 | 1.743 | -0.068 |
| 1948 | 1.784 | 0.018 | 1.764 | 0.021 |
| 1949 | 1.89 | 0.106 | 1.87 | 0.106 |
| 1950 | 1.854 | -0.036 | 1.837 | -0.033 |
| 1951 | 1.889 | 0.035 | 1.874 | 0.037 |
| 1952 | 1.876 | -0.013 | 1.863 | -0.011 |
| 1953 | 1.862 | -0.014 | 1.85 | -0.013 |
| 1954 | 1.887 | 0.025 | 1.876 | 0.026 |
| 1955 | 1.854 | -0.033 | 1.842 | -0.034 |
| 1956 | 1.845 | -0.009 | 1.834 | -0.008 |
| 1957 | 1.874 | 0.029 | 1.862 | 0.028 |
| 1958 | 1.862 | -0.012 | 1.85 | -0.012 |
| 1959 | 1.86 | -0.002 | 1.847 | -0.003 |
| 1960 | 1.849 | -0.011 | 1.836 | -0.011 |
| 1961 | 1.786 | -0.05 | ||
| 1962 | 1.737 | -0.049 | ||
| 1963 | 1.707 | -0.03 | ||
| 1964 | 1.68 | -0.027 | ||
| 1965 | 1.659 | -0.021 | ||
| 1966 | 1.636 | -0.023 | ||
| 1967 | 1.611 | -0.025 | ||
| 1968 | 1.6 | -0.011 | ||
| 1969 | 1.587 | -0.013 | ||
| 1970 | 1.572 | -0.015 | ||
| Mean (1944-1960) | 1.8461176471 | 0.002125 | 1.8298235294 | 0.0028125 |
| Median (1944-1960) | 1.854 | -0.01 | 1.842 | -0.0095 |
| Standard deviation (1944-1960) | 0.0383452773 | 0.041920361 | 0.0420077899 | 0.0415920165 |
| Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1944-1960) | 0.0041568627 | -0.0007058824 | 0.0050710784 | -0.0008161765 |
| Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using linear regression on the logarithm) (1944-1960) | 1.0022847828 | 1.0028122562 |
