Fertility in Japan

This page gives information of type fertility about the country Japan.
See all pages giving information on fertility for particular countries|See all pages giving information about Japan

Data sources

Some data on this page comes from the Human Fertility Database (website www.humanfertility.org) (data downloaded December 2, 2013, last updated by HFD August 8, 2012). The data collected by the Human Fertility Database is based on government data collection by the government of Japan. You can download the data yourself here. Details about the modalities of data collection are available here. Where available, we use HFD data because of its higher reliability.

Qualitative history of fertility-relevant events and trends

Key events

See Wikipedia:Abortion in Japan for the abortion timeline, and this paper for the pro-natalist policy timeline.

Year	Event	Postulated effects seen in fertility statistics
1869	abortion was banned nationwide, but punishment was rare except in cases of adultery or death to the mother
1880	ban on abortion was included in the penal code
1907	women could be incarcerated for up to a year for having an abortion; practitioners could be jailed for up to seven.
1923	doctors were granted legal permission to perform emergency abortions to save the mother's life; abortions performed under different, less life-threatening circumstances were still prosecuted.
1940	National Eugenic Law outlined a set of procedures doctors needed to follow in order to get an abortion.	Some commentators claim this was causally responsible for a huge decline in the number of abortions 1941-1944.
1948	passage of Eugenic Protection Law legalizing abortion and facilitating the provision of family planning services	This may have contributed to the rapid decline in birth rates and fertility in the 1949-1955 period.
1966	inauspicious year for births.	sudden dip in fertility rates.
1972	The Japanese government, foreseeing that fertility would soon drop to below the replacement fertility level, introduced a per-child subsidy.
1973	change in data collection modalities	Jumps or discontinuities at this year are likely attributable to the change in data collection modality.
1991	Childcare Leave Act passed by Japanese government aimed at helping working mothers
1994	government passed a four-year Angel Plan 1995-99 (officially known as the "Basic Direction for Future Childbearing Support Measures") with the primary goal being to establish more day-care centers to make parenting easier (and thereby, more attractive)
1996	replacement of the Eugenic Protection Law by the Maternal Health Protection Law, making abortion illegal except in case the fetus had significant defects or in case of danger to the mother's health	No discernible effect, but probably because the law itself didn't change reality on the ground.
1999	government passed a New Angel Plan building on the earlier Angel Plan, to build more day-care centers and after-school support.
1999	birth control pills were legalized, see here	No discernible effect
2001	Employment Insurance Law was amended, specifying that 40% salary was to be paid to regular full-time employees on childcare leave
2002	"Plus One" plan announced by the government, encouraging fathers to take five-day paternity leave following childbirth
2003	Japanese government passed "Next Generation" law and "Law for Measures to Support the Development of the Next Generation." These required any business with more than 300 workers to create a "plan" for raising the fertility level of its workers
2004	government subsidies for infertility treatments begin
2006	abortion was officially made legal conditional to the mother's consent	No discernible effect, but probably because the law itself didn't change reality on the ground.

Trends in period fertility

The fertility history of Japan can be subdivided into the following rough periods. Fertility history prior to 1947 relies on Gapminder, which uses the less reliable UN data, whereas fertility history 1947 onward uses the higher reliability HFD data. However, for the part 1947 onward, the Gapminder and HFD data paint a similar picture, and the only qualitative difference is that the Gapminder data fail to capture the dip in 1966.

Time period	Trend in fertility	Some numbers	Details
1873-1901	huge increase	TFR increased from 3.41 to 5.01
1901-1906	rapid decrease	TFR decreased from 5.01 to 4.37
1907-1919	upward jump, followed by modest decrease	TFR jumped up to 5.02 (from 4.37 the previous year), then decreased gradually to 4.77	The introduction of explicit penalties for women who have abortions in 1907 might explain the jump.
1920-1939	rapid decrease	TFR decreased from 5.35 to 3.8	The sudden change between 1919 and 1920 may be attributable to the change in data source.
1939-1947	fluctuation	TFR increased from 3.8 to 4.5, but with fluctuations	The war years of 1944 and 1945 were particularly bad for TFR.
1947-1961	huge decrease	CBR decreased from 34.65 to 16.99 TFR decreased from 4.566 to 1.963 (crossing replacement levels in 1959)	Possibly exacerbated by the legalization of abortion in 1948. Note that the starting point of 1947 is the earliest year for which reliable data can be found, and Japan was also involved in World War II till 1945. Therefore, the relevance of legal abortion in the decline of fertility is hard to test.
1961-1973	modest increase	CBR increased from 16.99 to 19.35 TFR increased from 1.963 to 2.135 1973 was the last year with above-replacement fertility	The year 1966, an inauspicious year for births, was in the middle of this period. Adjusting for the huge decline in birth sin these year and the subsequently slightly-above-normal value next year, we see a steady and modest increase in fertility over the period. Tightening of abortion laws is probably part of the explanation.
1973-present	gradual decrease	CBR decreased from 19.35 to 8.5 TFR decreased from 2.135 to 1.361	The decline was not steady, with small upticks in a few years, including what may be a more long-term rebound 2005-2009 (further data would be necessary to verify that). But the overall direction of decline is pretty strong.

Trends in completed fertility

Range of birth cohorts	Trend in fertility	Some numbers	Details
1932-1944	stayed roughly steady, declining and then bouncing back	CCF decreased from 2.06 to 2.035 CCF40 decreased from 2.047 to 2.027	The fertility seems to have gone up a bit for the cohorts born during World War II, but the overall variation is too little. Mean CCF for the period is 2.036 and standard deviation is 0.023.
1945-1959	stayed roughly steady, but lower than the 1932-1944 level	CCF increased from 1.851 to 1.87 CCF40 increased from 1.842 to 1.85	Mean CCF was 1.95 and standard deviation 0.049. Mean CCF40 was 1.94 and standard deviation 0.049.
1959-1969	rapid decline	CCF data unavailable CCF40 decreased from 1.85 to 1.444	Slope for rate of decline using linear regression estimate is -0.04.

Key quantitative metrics

Unless otherwise specified, data is from the Human Fertility Database, last updated August 2012.

The "Year" column below gives the period year for period measures, and the birth cohort year for cohort measures. With the exception of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate, all latest period measures are for 2009. Latest cohort measures are 1959 or 1969, the former for the completed measures and the latter for the under-40 measures.

Metric	Direct fertility measure, comparable with replacement fertility value of 2.1?	Period measure or cohort measure?	Most recent measurement	Year	Extreme values, along with year and source
crude birth rate (CBR)	No	Period	8.5	2009	Data available 1947-2009; maximum value 34.65 in 1947, minimum value 8.43 in 2005.
total fertility rate (TFR)	Yes	Period	1.361	2009	Data available 1947-2009; maximum value 4.566 in 1947, minimum value 1.254 in 2005
TFR40	Yes(ish)	Period	1.324	2009	Data available 1947-2009; maximum value 4.252 in 1947, minimum value 1.228 in 2005
CBR proportions by birth order	No	Period	birth orders 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (and more) (respectively): 0.479, 0.365, 0.126, 0.024, 0.007	2009	Data available 1968-2009
TFR proportions by birth order	No	Period	birth orders 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (and more) (respectively): 0.495, 0.357, 0.118, 0.022, 0.007	2009	Data available 1968-2009
Completed cohort fertility	Yes	Cohort	1.87	1959	Data available for birth cohorts 1932-1959; maximum value 2.071 for 1941 cohort, minimum value 1.851 for 1945 cohort
CCF40	Yes(ish)	Cohort	1.444	1969	Data available for birth cohorts 1932-1969; maximum value 2.062 for 1941 cohort, minimum value 1.444 for 1969 cohort
Mean age at birth	No	Period	30.44	2009	Data available for 1947-2009; maximum value 30.47 in 1947, minimum value 27.47 in 1975
Mean age of childbearing for birth cohorts	No	Cohort	28.64	1959	Data available for birth cohorts 1953-1969; maximum value 28.64 for 1959 cohort, minimum value 27.92 for 1953 cohort
Mean age of childbearing for birth cohorts till the age of 40 (CMAC40)	No	Cohort	29.55	1969	Data available for birth cohorts 1953-1969; maximum value 29.55 for 1969 cohort, minimum value 27.82 for 1953 cohort
Tempo-adjusted total fertility rate (period measure)	Yes	Period	1.512	2008	Data available for 1969-2008; maximum value 2.045 in 1969, minimum value 1.369 in 2005

Period fertility

Total indicators only without breakdown by birth order

Year	CBR (births per 1000 people per year)	CBR minus previous year's CBR	TFR (sum of all age-specific fertility rates), ballpark for replacement fertility is 2.1	TFR minus previous year's TFR	TFR40 (sum of age-specific fertility rates up to the age of 40), almost equal to TFR because births above the age of 40 are rare	TFR40 minus previous year's TFR40
1947	34.65		4.566		4.252
1948 (passage of Eugenic Protection Law permitting abortion and facilitating provision of fmaily planning services)	33.95	-0.7	4.444	-0.122	4.132	-0.12
1949	33.42	-0.53	4.357	-0.087	4.101	-0.031
1950	28.42	-5	3.672	-0.685	3.486	-0.615
1951	25.55	-2.87	3.281	-0.391	3.13	-0.356
1952	23.6	-1.95	2.995	-0.286	2.874	-0.256
1953	21.67	-1.93	2.713	-0.282	2.617	-0.257
1954	20.27	-1.4	2.502	-0.211	2.423	-0.194
1955	19.58	-0.69	2.383	-0.119	2.316	-0.107
1956	18.63	-0.95	2.236	-0.147	2.18	-0.136
1957	17.38	-1.25	2.058	-0.178	2.013	-0.167
1958	18.18	0.8	2.129	0.071	2.089	0.076
1959 (first year with TFR below replacement fertility)	17.71	-0.47	2.061	-0.068	2.027	-0.062
1960	17.33	-0.38	2.008	-0.053	1.98	-0.047
1961	16.99	-0.34	1.963	-0.045	1.94	-0.04
1962	17.14	0.15	1.974	0.011	1.954	0.014
1963	17.4	0.26	2.001	0.027	1.983	0.029
1964	17.81	0.41	2.045	0.044	2.028	0.045
1965	18.72	0.91	2.145	0.1	2.129	0.101
1966 (inauspicious year for births)	13.85	-4.87	1.579	-0.566	1.565	-0.564
1967	19.49	5.64	2.224	0.645	2.21	0.645
1968	18.63	-0.86	2.127	-0.097	2.112	-0.098
1969	18.58	-0.05	2.119	-0.008	2.105	-0.007
1970	18.8	0.22	2.129	0.01	2.115	0.01
1971	19.21	0.41	2.153	0.024	2.139	0.024
1972	19.3	0.09	2.138	-0.015	2.125	-0.014
1973 (last year with TFR above the replacement fertility level; also, first year with new data collection modality)	19.35	0.05	2.135	-0.003	2.121	-0.004
1974	18.52	-0.83	2.04	-0.095	2.028	-0.093
1975	17.14	-1.38	1.9	-0.14	1.889	-0.139
1976	16.34	-0.8	1.84	-0.06	1.83	-0.059
1977	15.5	-0.84	1.786	-0.054	1.776	-0.054
1978	14.95	-0.55	1.774	-0.012	1.765	-0.011
1979	14.25	-0.7	1.751	-0.023	1.742	-0.023
1980	13.57	-0.68	1.731	-0.02	1.722	-0.02
1981	13.07	-0.5	1.726	-0.005	1.718	-0.004
1982	12.86	-0.21	1.755	0.029	1.746	0.028
1983	12.72	-0.14	1.788	0.033	1.779	0.033
1984	12.48	-0.24	1.8	0.012	1.79	0.011
1985	11.92	-0.56	1.757	-0.043	1.747	-0.043
1986	11.45	-0.47	1.719	-0.038	1.709	-0.038
1987	11.1	-0.35	1.689	-0.03	1.68	-0.029
1988	10.79	-0.31	1.657	-0.032	1.647	-0.033
1989	10.2	-0.59	1.576	-0.081	1.565	-0.082
1990	9.96	-0.24	1.543	-0.033	1.531	-0.034
1991	9.95	-0.01	1.537	-0.006	1.525	-0.006
1992	9.8	-0.15	1.506	-0.031	1.493	-0.032
1993	9.61	-0.19	1.464	-0.042	1.451	-0.042
1994	9.98	0.37	1.507	0.043	1.493	0.042
1995	9.55	-0.43	1.426	-0.081	1.411	-0.082
1996	9.68	0.13	1.43	0.004	1.414	0.003
1997	9.54	-0.14	1.392	-0.038	1.376	-0.038
1998	9.61	0.07	1.388	-0.004	1.371	-0.005
1999	9.39	-0.22	1.347	-0.041	1.329	-0.042
2000	9.49	0.1	1.359	0.012	1.339	0.01
2001	9.31	-0.18	1.336	-0.023	1.316	-0.023
2002	9.16	-0.15	1.318	-0.018	1.297	-0.019
2003	8.91	-0.25	1.29	-0.028	1.266	-0.031
2004	8.81	-0.1	1.288	-0.002	1.263	-0.003
2005	8.43	-0.38	1.254	-0.034	1.228	-0.035
2006	8.67	0.24	1.313	0.059	1.285	0.057
2007	8.64	-0.03	1.331	0.018	1.299	0.014
2008	8.66	0.02	1.36	0.029	1.326	0.027
2009	8.5	-0.16	1.361	0.001	1.324	-0.002
Maximum	34.65 (1947)	5.64 (1967)	4.566 (1947)	0.645 (1967)	4.252 (1947)	0.645 (1967)
Minimum	8.43 (2005)	-5 (1950)	1.254 (2005)	-0.685 (1950)	1.228 (2005)	-0.615 (1950)
Average (arithmetic mean)	15.366984127	-0.4217741935	1.971047619	-0.0516935484	1.9304126984	-0.0472258065
Geometric mean	14.2564922903		1.8716644672		1.8411780514
Median	14.25	-0.245	1.786	-0.029	1.776	-0.03
Standard deviation	6.3600331291	1.2910175478	0.7350500406	0.1619209065	0.6754908761	0.1543309643
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression)	-0.3094743664	0.0196975649	-0.0323055876	0.0031489764	-0.0303344854	0.0027210597
Multiplier for best log-linear fit (using linear regression on the logarithm)	0.9803430789		0.985175264		0.985546664
$R^{2}$ for linear regression	0.7955544081	0.075772529	0.6490239958	0.1231073376	0.6776002642	0.1011861286

Crude birth rate broken down by birth order

Year	CBR	CBR1	CBR2	CBR3	CBR4	CBR5+	CBR1 proportion	CBR2 proportion	CBR3 proportion	CBR4 proportion	CBR5+ proportion
1947	34.65
1948	33.95
1949	33.42
1950	28.42
1951	25.55
1952	23.6
1953	21.67
1954	20.27
1955	19.58
1956	18.63
1957	17.38
1958	18.18
1959	17.71
1960	17.33
1961	16.99
1962	17.14
1963	17.4
1964	17.81
1965	18.72
1966	13.85
1967	19.49
1968	18.63	8.6	7.32	2.15	0.39	0.17	0.4616210413	0.3929146538	0.1154052603	0.0209339775	0.0091250671
1969	18.58	8.41	7.32	2.31	0.39	0.16	0.4526372443	0.3939720129	0.1243272336	0.0209903122	0.0086114101
1970	18.8	8.55	7.33	2.39	0.39	0.15	0.454787234	0.389893617	0.1271276596	0.0207446809	0.0079787234
1971	19.21	8.65	7.5	2.51	0.4	0.14	0.4502863092	0.3904216554	0.130661114	0.0208224883	0.0072878709
1972	19.3	8.86	7.35	2.54	0.4	0.14	0.4590673575	0.3808290155	0.1316062176	0.0207253886	0.007253886
1973	19.35	8.79	7.36	2.62	0.42	0.15	0.4542635659	0.3803617571	0.1354005168	0.0217054264	0.007751938
1974	18.52	8.45	7.16	2.41	0.38	0.13	0.4562634989	0.3866090713	0.1301295896	0.0205183585	0.0070194384
1975	17.14	7.77	6.92	2.02	0.31	0.12	0.4533255543	0.4037339557	0.1178529755	0.0180863477	0.0070011669
1976	16.34	7.17	6.8	1.97	0.29	0.11	0.4388004896	0.4161566707	0.1205630355	0.017747858	0.0067319461
1977	15.5	6.59	6.56	1.98	0.28	0.1	0.4251612903	0.4232258065	0.1277419355	0.0180645161	0.0064516129
1978	14.95	6.22	6.35	2.02	0.27	0.09	0.4160535117	0.4247491639	0.1351170569	0.0180602007	0.0060200669
1979	14.25	5.94	5.95	2.02	0.26	0.08	0.4168421053	0.4175438596	0.141754386	0.018245614	0.0056140351
1980	13.57	5.75	5.53	1.96	0.26	0.08	0.4237288136	0.4075165807	0.1444362564	0.0191599116	0.0058953574
1981	13.07	5.61	5.22	1.91	0.26	0.08	0.4292272379	0.3993879112	0.1461361897	0.0198928845	0.0061208875
1982	12.86	5.51	5.1	1.91	0.27	0.08	0.4284603421	0.3965785381	0.1485225505	0.0209953344	0.0062208398
1983	12.72	5.47	4.97	1.92	0.27	0.08	0.4300314465	0.3907232704	0.1509433962	0.0212264151	0.0062893082
1984	12.48	5.31	4.87	1.93	0.28	0.08	0.4254807692	0.390224359	0.1546474359	0.0224358974	0.0064102564
1985	11.92	5.01	4.69	1.88	0.27	0.07	0.4203020134	0.3934563758	0.1577181208	0.0226510067	0.0058724832
1986	11.45	4.85	4.47	1.8	0.27	0.07	0.423580786	0.3903930131	0.1572052402	0.023580786	0.0061135371
1987	11.1	4.7	4.32	1.76	0.26	0.07	0.4234234234	0.3891891892	0.1585585586	0.0234234234	0.0063063063
1988	10.79	4.55	4.18	1.73	0.26	0.06	0.421686747	0.3873957368	0.1603336423	0.0240963855	0.0055607044
1989	10.2	4.38	3.89	1.63	0.25	0.06	0.4294117647	0.381372549	0.1598039216	0.0245098039	0.0058823529
1990	9.96	4.34	3.75	1.57	0.25	0.06	0.4357429719	0.3765060241	0.1576305221	0.0251004016	0.0060240964
1991	9.95	4.49	3.66	1.5	0.24	0.06	0.4512562814	0.367839196	0.1507537688	0.024120603	0.0060301508
1992	9.8	4.51	3.58	1.42	0.23	0.06	0.4602040816	0.3653061224	0.1448979592	0.0234693878	0.006122449
1993	9.61	4.51	3.49	1.34	0.22	0.05	0.4693028096	0.3631633715	0.1394380853	0.02289282	0.0052029136
1994	9.98	4.75	3.6	1.34	0.23	0.06	0.4759519038	0.3607214429	0.1342685371	0.0230460922	0.006012024
1995	9.55	4.56	3.45	1.26	0.22	0.06	0.477486911	0.3612565445	0.1319371728	0.0230366492	0.0062827225
1996	9.68	4.61	3.57	1.24	0.21	0.06	0.4762396694	0.3688016529	0.1280991736	0.0216942149	0.0061983471
1997	9.54	4.58	3.5	1.2	0.21	0.05	0.4800838574	0.3668763103	0.1257861635	0.0220125786	0.0052410901
1998	9.61	4.66	3.51	1.18	0.2	0.05	0.4849115505	0.3652445369	0.1227887617	0.0208116545	0.0052029136
1999	9.39	4.62	3.41	1.12	0.19	0.05	0.4920127796	0.3631522897	0.1192758253	0.0202342918	0.0053248136
2000	9.49	4.65	3.47	1.12	0.2	0.05	0.4899894626	0.3656480506	0.1180189673	0.0210748156	0.0052687039
2001	9.31	4.56	3.41	1.1	0.19	0.05	0.4897959184	0.3662728249	0.1181525242	0.0204081633	0.0053705693
2002	9.16	4.54	3.34	1.04	0.18	0.05	0.4956331878	0.364628821	0.1135371179	0.019650655	0.0054585153
2003	8.91	4.34	3.32	1.02	0.18	0.05	0.4870931538	0.3726150393	0.1144781145	0.0202020202	0.0056116723
2004	8.81	4.26	3.31	1	0.18	0.05	0.4835414302	0.3757094211	0.113507378	0.020431328	0.0056753689
2005	8.43	4.07	3.17	0.97	0.17	0.05	0.4827995255	0.3760379597	0.1150652432	0.0201660735	0.0059311981
2006	8.67	4.16	3.24	1.03	0.18	0.05	0.4798154556	0.3737024221	0.1188004614	0.0207612457	0.0057670127
2007	8.64	4.12	3.2	1.07	0.19	0.06	0.4768518519	0.3703703704	0.1238425926	0.0219907407	0.0069444444
2008	8.66	4.11	3.19	1.09	0.2	0.06	0.474595843	0.3683602771	0.1258660508	0.0230946882	0.0069284065
2009	8.5	4.07	3.1	1.07	0.2	0.06	0.4788235294	0.3647058824	0.1258823529	0.0235294118	0.0070588235
Mean (1968-2009)	12.2947619048	5.5630952381	4.7483333333	1.644047619	0.2595238095	0.08	0.4556327314	0.3829420791	0.1337623587	0.0213415441	0.0063137007
Geometric mean (1968-2009)	14.2564922903	5.3696471539	4.5153054	1.5692807595	0.2509251848	0.0738468184	0.4549327532	0.3825503349	0.1329542139	0.0212591409	0.0062565259
Median (1968-2009)	10.495	4.68	4.035	1.68	0.255	0.06	0.4555253665	0.3805953863	0.1303953518	0.0209928233	0.0061172123
Standard deviation (1968-2009)	3.7176403729	1.6032626614	1.5746713427	0.5009116544	0.0712245635	0.0354758592	0.0254953152	0.0177110054	0.0150539022	0.0018880947	0.0008986095
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1968-2009)	-0.2828166275	-0.114746779	-0.1210153148	-0.0393963212	-0.0053075115	-0.0025070902	0.0013334093	-0.0010227596	-0.0003296164	4.68163588958831E-005	-4.3616249428809E-005
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1968-2009)	0.9781332364	0.9809732791	0.9755395455	0.9756427142	0.9803586992	0.9718051041	1.0029035336	0.9973483256	0.9974538007	1.0022752143	0.9935303984

Total fertility rate broken down by birth order

The columns TFR1, TFR2, TFR3, and TFR4 describe the total fertility rates at the respective birth orders 1, 2, 3, and 4. The column TFR5+ describes the total fertility rate at higher birth orders (combined). The corresponding "proportion" columns divide the corresponding birth order TFR column by the TFR column (the total across all birth orders). For each row, the proportion columns add up to 1.

Year	TFR	TFR1	TFR2	TFR3	TFR4	TFR5+	TFR1 proportion	TFR2 proportion	TFR3 proportion	TFR4 proportion	TFR5+ proportion
1947	4.566
1948	4.444
1949	4.357
1950	3.672
1951	3.281
1952	2.995
1953	2.713
1954	2.502
1955	2.383
1956	2.236
1957	2.058
1958	2.129
1959	2.061
1960	2.008
1961	1.963
1962	1.974
1963	2.001
1964	2.045
1965	2.145
1966	1.579
1967	2.224
1968	2.127	0.96	0.843	0.255	0.047	0.021	0.4513399154	0.3963328632	0.119887165	0.02209685	0.0098730606
1969	2.119	0.936	0.842	0.274	0.048	0.02	0.4417177914	0.397357244	0.1293062765	0.0226521944	0.0094384143
1970	2.129	0.938	0.842	0.283	0.047	0.019	0.4405824331	0.3954908408	0.1329262565	0.0220760921	0.0089243776
1971	2.153	0.929	0.86	0.297	0.048	0.018	0.4314909429	0.3994426382	0.1379470506	0.0222944728	0.0083604273
1972	2.138	0.934	0.837	0.3	0.049	0.018	0.4368568756	0.3914873714	0.1403180543	0.0229186155	0.0084190833
1973	2.135	0.925	0.829	0.31	0.051	0.019	0.4332552693	0.3882903981	0.1451990632	0.0238875878	0.0088992974
1974	2.04	0.902	0.793	0.283	0.046	0.016	0.4421568627	0.3887254902	0.1387254902	0.0225490196	0.0078431373
1975	1.9	0.855	0.758	0.235	0.037	0.015	0.45	0.3989473684	0.1236842105	0.0194736842	0.0078947368
1976	1.84	0.821	0.746	0.226	0.034	0.013	0.4461956522	0.4054347826	0.122826087	0.0184782609	0.0070652174
1977	1.786	0.786	0.731	0.224	0.033	0.012	0.4400895857	0.4092945129	0.1254199328	0.0184770437	0.006718925
1978	1.774	0.776	0.727	0.228	0.031	0.011	0.4374295378	0.4098083427	0.1285231116	0.0174746336	0.0062006764
1979	1.751	0.773	0.707	0.23	0.031	0.01	0.4414620217	0.4037692747	0.1313535123	0.017704169	0.0057110223
1980	1.731	0.779	0.685	0.228	0.03	0.01	0.450028885	0.3957250144	0.1317157712	0.0173310225	0.0057770075
1981	1.726	0.786	0.673	0.228	0.031	0.009	0.4553881808	0.3899188876	0.1320973349	0.0179606025	0.0052143685
1982	1.755	0.793	0.684	0.237	0.032	0.009	0.4518518519	0.3897435897	0.135042735	0.0182336182	0.0051282051
1983	1.788	0.805	0.692	0.247	0.034	0.009	0.4502237136	0.3870246085	0.1381431767	0.01901566	0.005033557
1984	1.8	0.796	0.701	0.258	0.036	0.01	0.4422222222	0.3894444444	0.1433333333	0.02	0.0055555556
1985	1.757	0.76	0.692	0.261	0.035	0.009	0.4325554923	0.3938531588	0.1485486625	0.0199203187	0.0051223677
1986	1.719	0.742	0.673	0.259	0.036	0.009	0.431646306	0.3915066899	0.1506689936	0.0209424084	0.0052356021
1987	1.689	0.723	0.661	0.261	0.036	0.009	0.4280639432	0.3913558319	0.1545293073	0.0213143872	0.0053285968
1988	1.657	0.702	0.647	0.263	0.037	0.009	0.4236572118	0.3904646952	0.1587205794	0.0223295112	0.0054315027
1989	1.576	0.674	0.606	0.251	0.037	0.008	0.4276649746	0.3845177665	0.1592639594	0.0234771574	0.0050761421
1990	1.543	0.664	0.587	0.246	0.038	0.008	0.430330525	0.3804277382	0.1594296824	0.0246273493	0.0051847051
1991	1.537	0.682	0.573	0.237	0.037	0.008	0.4437215355	0.372804164	0.1541964867	0.0240728692	0.0052049447
1992	1.506	0.678	0.558	0.225	0.036	0.008	0.4501992032	0.3705179283	0.1494023904	0.0239043825	0.005312085
1993	1.464	0.671	0.539	0.212	0.035	0.008	0.4583333333	0.3681693989	0.1448087432	0.0239071038	0.0054644809
1994	1.507	0.698	0.552	0.212	0.036	0.009	0.4631718646	0.3662906437	0.1406768414	0.0238885202	0.0059721301
1995	1.426	0.662	0.522	0.197	0.035	0.009	0.4642356241	0.366058906	0.1381486676	0.0245441795	0.0063113604
1996	1.43	0.661	0.534	0.192	0.034	0.009	0.4622377622	0.3734265734	0.1342657343	0.0237762238	0.0062937063
1997	1.392	0.651	0.516	0.184	0.032	0.009	0.4676724138	0.3706896552	0.132183908	0.0229885057	0.0064655172
1998	1.388	0.659	0.511	0.179	0.031	0.008	0.4747838617	0.3681556196	0.128962536	0.0223342939	0.0057636888
1999	1.347	0.652	0.491	0.167	0.029	0.008	0.4840386043	0.3645137342	0.1239792131	0.0215293244	0.005939124
2000	1.359	0.66	0.496	0.165	0.03	0.008	0.4856512141	0.3649742458	0.1214128035	0.0220750552	0.0058866814
2001	1.336	0.655	0.485	0.159	0.029	0.008	0.4902694611	0.3630239521	0.119011976	0.0217065868	0.005988024
2002	1.318	0.658	0.475	0.15	0.027	0.008	0.4992412747	0.3603945372	0.1138088012	0.0204855842	0.0060698027
2003	1.29	0.637	0.474	0.145	0.026	0.008	0.4937984496	0.3674418605	0.1124031008	0.0201550388	0.0062015504
2004	1.288	0.636	0.476	0.142	0.026	0.008	0.4937888199	0.3695652174	0.1102484472	0.0201863354	0.0062111801
2005	1.254	0.62	0.463	0.139	0.025	0.007	0.4944178628	0.3692185008	0.1108452951	0.0199362041	0.0055821372
2006	1.313	0.649	0.481	0.149	0.027	0.008	0.4942878903	0.3663366337	0.1134805788	0.0205635948	0.006092917
2007	1.331	0.655	0.483	0.157	0.028	0.008	0.4921111946	0.3628850488	0.1179564237	0.0210368144	0.0060105184
2008	1.36	0.667	0.491	0.163	0.03	0.009	0.4904411765	0.3610294118	0.1198529412	0.0220588235	0.0066176471
2009	1.361	0.674	0.486	0.161	0.03	0.009	0.4952240999	0.3570903747	0.1182953711	0.0220426157	0.0066127847
Mean (1968-2009)	1.639047619	0.7448571429	0.6290952381	0.2195	0.0349285714	0.0106666667	0.4574722819	0.3816892847	0.133132143	0.0213434932	0.0063675302
Median (1968-2009)	1.6165	0.7	0.6265	0.228	0.034	0.009	0.4502114584	0.3857711875	0.1321406215	0.0218746013	0.0059992712
Standard deviation (1968-2009)	0.2837342412	0.1034605077	0.1298717584	0.0486637292	0.0068588304	0.0039673464	0.0237216689	0.0153357426	0.0140492792	0.0020951576	0.0012821002
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1968-2009)	-0.0222746941	-0.007759987	-0.0103252573	-0.0034965562	-0.000432785	-0.0002570294	0.001556969	-0.00111562	-0.0004130709	2.9638050840737E-005	-5.68902263624509E-005
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1968-2009)	0.9866279019	0.9899364352	0.983742996	0.983361587	0.9881403735	0.9792000859	1.0033533749	0.997075994	0.9966894156	1.0015329706	0.9924715122

Data 1800 onward: lower quality data based on reconstruction from other data

The data here are lower quality than the other data, even for recent years. They are based on various reconstructions and estimates, and are not sufficiently reliable for calculating year-on-year changes. However, broad trends may still be discerned.

An example to illustrate the lower quality of the Gapminder data is that the Gapminder data does not pick the sudden fertility dip in 1966, whereas the HFD data does.

The data sets correlate highly. For the years 1947-2009, where both data sets are available, the correlation is 0.993, indicating near perfect agreement in the trend. The values themselves differ only slightly, both additively and multiplicatively, as the table below shows. If we exclude the anomalous year 1966 from the assessment, the correlation rises to 0.996.

Year	Japan's TFR according to Gapminder (low quality data)	Japan's TFR according to HFD (high quality data)	Difference	Ratio
1800	4.08032
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812	4.42864
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838	4.5406
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863	4.83916
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873	3.4143658113
1874	3.5178314419
1875	3.7395435076
1876	3.754324312
1877	3.6656394857
1878	3.5769546594
1879	3.5473930507
1880	3.5917354638
1881	3.7691051163
1882	3.6656394857
1883	3.9612555733
1884	3.7986667251
1885	3.9760363776
1886	4.0351595951
1887	4.0351595951
1888	4.4342413133
1889	4.537706944
1890	4.1829676389
1891	3.990817182
1892	4.4046797046
1893	4.2568716608
1894	4.3455564871
1895	4.3603372915
1896	4.5081453352
1897	4.655953379
1898	4.7150765965
1899	4.7298574009
1900	4.6855149878
1901	5.0106926841
1902	4.966350271
1903	4.8333230316
1904	4.6116109659
1905	4.5229261396
1906	4.3751180958
1907	5.0254734885
1908	5.1289391191
1909	5.1585007279
1910	5.0106926841
1911	5.1880623366
1912	5.084596706
1913	5.0698159016
1914	5.1437199235
1915	4.9072270534
1916	4.9811310753
1917	4.9515694666
1918	4.8333230316
1919	4.774199814
1920	5.35
1921	5.22
1922	5.12
1923	5.26
1924	5.07
1925	5.22
1926	5.19
1927	5
1928	5.09
1929	4.87
1930	4.82
1931	4.76
1932	4.86
1933	4.63
1934	4.39
1935	4.59
1936	4.34
1937	4.45
1938	3.88
1939	3.8
1940	4.14
1941	4.36
1942	4.18
1943	4.11
1944	3.95
1945	3.11
1946	3.37
1947	4.51	4.566	0.056	1.0124168514
1948	4.38	4.444	0.064	1.0146118721
1949	4.3	4.357	0.057	1.013255814
1950	3.51	3.672	0.162	1.0461538462
1951	3.367	3.281	-0.086	0.9744579745
1952	3.096	2.995	-0.101	0.967377261
1953	2.856	2.713	-0.143	0.949929972
1954	2.647	2.502	-0.145	0.9452210049
1955	2.468	2.383	-0.085	0.9655591572
1956	2.32	2.236	-0.084	0.9637931034
1957	2.201	2.058	-0.143	0.935029532
1958	2.11	2.129	0.019	1.0090047393
1959	2.044	2.061	0.017	1.0083170254
1960	2.001	2.008	0.007	1.0034982509
1961	1.976	1.963	-0.013	0.9934210526
1962	1.965	1.974	0.009	1.0045801527
1963	1.965	2.001	0.036	1.0183206107
1964	1.97	2.045	0.075	1.038071066
1965	1.98	2.145	0.165	1.0833333333
1966	1.997	1.579	-0.418	0.790686029
1967	2.02	2.224	0.204	1.100990099
1968	2.048	2.127	0.079	1.0385742188
1969	2.077	2.119	0.042	1.0202214733
1970	2.101	2.129	0.028	1.0133269871
1971	2.113	2.153	0.04	1.0189304307
1972	2.109	2.138	0.029	1.0137505927
1973	2.087	2.135	0.048	1.0229995208
1974	2.048	2.04	-0.008	0.99609375
1975	1.997	1.9	-0.097	0.9514271407
1976	1.94	1.84	-0.1	0.9484536082
1977	1.885	1.786	-0.099	0.9474801061
1978	1.838	1.774	-0.064	0.965179543
1979	1.802	1.751	-0.051	0.9716981132
1980	1.777	1.731	-0.046	0.9741136747
1981	1.761	1.726	-0.035	0.980124929
1982	1.751	1.755	0.004	1.0022844089
1983	1.741	1.788	0.047	1.0269959793
1984	1.73	1.8	0.07	1.0404624277
1985	1.715	1.757	0.042	1.0244897959
1986	1.695	1.719	0.024	1.014159292
1987	1.67	1.689	0.019	1.0113772455
1988	1.641	1.657	0.016	1.0097501523
1989	1.607	1.576	-0.031	0.9807093964
1990	1.571	1.543	-0.028	0.9821769574
1991	1.535	1.537	0.002	1.0013029316
1992	1.499	1.506	0.007	1.0046697799
1993	1.467	1.464	-0.003	0.9979550102
1994	1.438	1.507	0.069	1.0479833102
1995	1.413	1.426	0.013	1.0092002831
1996	1.392	1.43	0.038	1.0272988506
1997	1.372	1.392	0.02	1.0145772595
1998	1.354	1.388	0.034	1.0251107829
1999	1.337	1.347	0.01	1.0074794316
2000	1.322	1.359	0.037	1.0279878971
2001	1.31	1.336	0.026	1.0198473282
2002	1.303	1.318	0.015	1.0115118956
2003	1.3	1.29	-0.01	0.9923076923
2004	1.301	1.288	-0.013	0.9900076864
2005	1.307	1.254	-0.053	0.9594491201
2006	1.317	1.313	-0.004	0.9969627942
2007	1.329	1.331	0.002	1.0015048909
2008	1.343	1.36	0.017	1.0126582278
2009	1.359	1.361	0.002	1.0014716703
2010	1.374
2011	1.389
2012	1.405
Average (1947-2009)			-0.0033174603	0.9990808783

Completed fertility

CCF and CC40, not broken down by birth order

Cohort	CCF	CCF minus previous year's CCF	CCF40	CCF40 minus previous year's CCF40
1932	2.06		2.047
1933	2.035	-0.025	2.024	-0.023
1934	2.008	-0.027	1.998	-0.026
1935	2.045	0.037	2.035	0.037
1936	2.035	-0.01	2.026	-0.009
1937	2.051	0.016	2.042	0.016
1938	2.009	-0.042	2.001	-0.041
1939	1.985	-0.024	1.976	-0.025
1940	2.052	0.067	2.043	0.067
1941	2.071	0.019	2.062	0.019
1942	2.031	-0.04	2.022	-0.04
1943	2.053	0.022	2.044	0.022
1944	2.036	-0.017	2.027	-0.017
1945	1.851	-0.185	1.842	-0.185
1946	1.905	0.054	1.896	0.054
1947	2.021	0.116	2.01	0.114
1948	1.987	-0.034	1.976	-0.034
1949	1.992	0.005	1.98	0.004
1950	1.969	-0.023	1.956	-0.024
1951	1.962	-0.007	1.949	-0.007
1952	1.982	0.02	1.968	0.019
1953	1.987	0.005	1.973	0.005
1954	1.983	-0.004	1.968	-0.005
1955	1.977	-0.006	1.961	-0.007
1956	1.946	-0.031	1.929	-0.032
1957	1.918	-0.028	1.9	-0.029
1958	1.909	-0.009	1.89	-0.01
1959	1.87	-0.039	1.85	-0.04
1960	unavailable		1.805	-0.045
1961	unavailable		1.762	-0.043
1962	unavailable		1.719	-0.043
1963	unavailable		1.672	-0.047
1964	unavailable		1.66	-0.012
1965	unavailable		1.595	-0.065
1966	unavailable		1.493	-0.102
1967	unavailable		1.506	0.013
1968	unavailable		1.497	-0.009
1969	unavailable		1.444	-0.053
Mean (1932-1959)	1.9903571429	-0.007037037	1.9783928571	-0.0072962963
Median (1932-1959)	1.9895	-0.009	1.978	-0.009
Standard deviation (1932-1959)	0.0582747098	0.0509467909	0.0602871765	0.0507488649
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1932-1959)	-0.004805145	-0.0004334554	-0.0051409414	-0.000510989
$R^{2}$ -- goodness of linear fit (square of the correlation) as a function of time	0.4600738487	0.0045603249	0.4920510998	0.0063872072
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1932-1959)	0.997579501		0.9973921665
Mean (1960-1969)			1.6153	-0.0406
Median (1960-1969)			1.6275	-0.044
Standard deviation (1960-1969)			0.1265473561	0.0321116109
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1960-1969)			-0.0410363636	0.0013818182
$R^{2}$ -- goodness of linear fit (square of the correlation) as a function of time			0.9639245164	0.01697419
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1960-1969)			0.9749241926

Completed cohort fertilities, by birth order where available

Cohort	CCF	CCF1	CCF2	CCF3	CCF4	CCF5+	CCF1 proportion	CCF2 proportion	CCF3 proportion	CCF4 proportion	CCF5+ proportion
1932	2.06
1933	2.035
1934	2.008
1935	2.045
1936	2.035
1937	2.051
1938	2.009
1939	1.985
1940	2.052
1941	2.071
1942	2.031
1943	2.053
1944	2.036
1945	1.851
1946	1.905
1947	2.021
1948	1.987
1949	1.992
1950	1.969
1951	1.962
1952	1.982
1953	1.987	0.887	0.769	0.282	0.04	0.01	0.4464016105	0.3870156014	0.1419224962	0.0201308505	0.0050327126
1954	1.983	0.882	0.765	0.286	0.041	0.01	0.4447806354	0.3857791225	0.1442259203	0.0206757438	0.0050428643
1955	1.977	0.879	0.761	0.286	0.042	0.009	0.4446130501	0.3849266566	0.1446636318	0.0212443096	0.004552352
1956	1.946	0.867	0.746	0.283	0.041	0.009	0.4455292909	0.3833504625	0.1454265159	0.0210688592	0.0046248715
1957	1.918	0.858	0.733	0.277	0.041	0.009	0.4473409802	0.382168926	0.1444212722	0.0213764338	0.0046923879
1958	1.909	0.858	0.727	0.274	0.04	0.009	0.4494499738	0.3808276585	0.1435306443	0.0209533787	0.0047145102
1959	1.87	0.846	0.71	0.265	0.039	0.009	0.4524064171	0.3796791444	0.1417112299	0.020855615	0.0048128342
Mean (1953-1959)	1.9414285714	0.8681428571	0.7444285714	0.279	0.0405714286	0.0092857143	0.4472174226	0.3833925103	0.1437002444	0.0209007415	0.0047817904
Median (1953-1959)	1.946	0.867	0.746	0.282	0.041	0.009	0.4464016105	0.3833504625	0.1442259203	0.0209533787	0.0047145102
Standard deviation (1953-1959)	0.0443353025	0.0150712593	0.022074549	0.0076157731	0.0009759001	0.00048795	0.0028331738	0.0026783947	0.0014053277	0.0004124619	0.0001922976
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1953-1959)	-0.0199285714	-0.0068571429	-0.0100357143	-0.003	-0.0002142857	-0.0001785714	0.0010743224	-0.0012382154	-8.09539448686275E-005	0.0001022031	-0.000042011
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1953-1959)	0.9897520583	0.9897520583	0.9897520583	0.9897520583	0.9897520583	0.9897520583	0.9897520583	0.9897520583	0.9897520583	0.9897520583	0.9897520583

Completed cohort fertilities till age 40, where available

Cohort	CCF40	CCF40_1	CCF40_2	CCF40_3	CCF40_4	CCF40_5+	CCF40_1 proportion	CCF40_2 proportion	CCF40_3 proportion	CCF40_4 proportion	CCF40_5+ proportion
1932	2.047
1933	2.024
1934	1.998
1935	2.035
1936	2.026
1937	2.042
1938	2.001
1939	1.976
1940	2.043
1941	2.062
1942	2.022
1943	2.044
1944	2.027
1945	1.842
1946	1.896
1947	2.01
1948	1.976
1949	1.98
1950	1.956
1951	1.949
1952	1.968
1953	1.973	0.883	0.765	0.278	0.039	0.009	0.4475418145	0.3877344146	0.1409021794	0.0197668525	0.0045615813
1954	1.968	0.878	0.76	0.282	0.039	0.008	0.4461382114	0.3861788618	0.1432926829	0.0198170732	0.0040650407
1955	1.961	0.875	0.756	0.283	0.039	0.008	0.4462009179	0.3855175931	0.1443141254	0.0198878123	0.0040795512
1956	1.929	0.863	0.741	0.279	0.039	0.008	0.4473820632	0.3841368585	0.1446345257	0.0202177294	0.0041472265
1957	1.9	0.853	0.728	0.273	0.038	0.008	0.4489473684	0.3831578947	0.1436842105	0.02	0.0042105263
1958	1.89	0.853	0.722	0.269	0.038	0.008	0.4513227513	0.382010582	0.1423280423	0.0201058201	0.0042328042
1959	1.85	0.84	0.704	0.261	0.037	0.008	0.4540540541	0.3805405405	0.1410810811	0.02	0.0043243243
1960	1.805	0.826	0.686	0.249	0.036	0.008	0.4576177285	0.3800554017	0.1379501385	0.0199445983	0.004432133
1961	1.762	0.815	0.668	0.237	0.035	0.007	0.4625425653	0.3791146425	0.1345062429	0.0198637911	0.0039727582
1962	1.719	0.804	0.65	0.225	0.033	0.007	0.4677137871	0.3781268179	0.1308900524	0.0191972077	0.004072135
1963	1.672	0.789	0.631	0.214	0.031	0.007	0.4718899522	0.3773923445	0.1279904306	0.0185406699	0.0041866029
1964	1.66	0.792	0.625	0.206	0.031	0.007	0.4771084337	0.3765060241	0.1240963855	0.0186746988	0.0042168675
1965	1.595	0.768	0.598	0.193	0.029	0.007	0.4815047022	0.3749216301	0.1210031348	0.0181818182	0.0043887147
1966	1.493	0.726	0.557	0.176	0.027	0.007	0.4862692565	0.373074347	0.1178834561	0.0180843938	0.0046885466
1967	1.506	0.739	0.56	0.173	0.027	0.007	0.4907038513	0.3718459495	0.114873838	0.0179282869	0.0046480744
1968	1.497	0.741	0.556	0.168	0.026	0.007	0.49498998	0.3714094856	0.1122244489	0.0173680695	0.0046760187
1969	1.444	0.719	0.534	0.159	0.025	0.007	0.4979224377	0.3698060942	0.1101108033	0.0173130194	0.0048476454
Mean (1953-1969)	1.7425882353	0.8096470588	0.6612352941	0.2308823529	0.0334705882	0.0075294118	0.4664617574	0.378913499	0.1312803399	0.0191112848	0.0043382677
Median (1953-1969)	1.762	0.815	0.668	0.237	0.035	0.007	0.4625425653	0.3791146425	0.1345062429	0.0197668525	0.0042328042
Standard deviation (1953-1969)	0.1854976613	0.0556596141	0.0795420717	0.0448760548	0.0051734617	0.0006242643	0.0185124	0.0054832404	0.0123492838	0.0010215973	0.00026236
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1953-1969)	-0.036252451	-0.0108308824	-0.0156004902	-0.0087058824	-0.000997549	-0.0001078431	0.0035779784	-0.0010829371	-0.0023354568	-0.0001824256	3.11583339680162E-005
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1953-1969)	0.9791004327	0.9791004327	0.9791004327	0.9791004327	0.9791004327	0.9791004327	0.9791004327	0.9791004327	0.9791004327	0.9791004327	0.9791004327
R^2 for linear regression (1953-1969)	0.9739531157	0.9655782504	0.9808957967	0.9597020647	0.9480826465	0.7610062893	0.9525551905	0.9946540434	0.9120115036	0.8131160552	0.359661059

Parity progression ratios

Note that the parity progression ratio (PPR) data is strictly deducible from the completed cohort fertility data (broken down by birth order) above, but it is included for completeness' sake.

Cohort	PPR from 0 to 1	PPR from 1 to 2	PPR from 2 to 3	PPR from 3 to 4
1953	0.887	0.867	0.367	0.144
1954	0.882	0.868	0.374	0.144
1955	0.879	0.865	0.377	0.145
1956	0.867	0.86	0.379	0.146
1957	0.858	0.855	0.378	0.147
1958	0.858	0.848	0.376	0.147
1959	0.846	0.84	0.373	0.149
Maximum	0.887	0.868	0.379	0.149
Minimum	0.846	0.84	0.367	0.144
Average (arithmetic mean)	0.8681428571	0.8575714286	0.3748571429	0.146
Geometric mean	0.8680305627	0.8575157207	0.374838175	0.1459902411
Median	0.867	0.86	0.376	0.146
Standard deviation	0.0150712593	0.0105333936	0.0040590874	0.0018257419
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression)	-0.0068571429	-0.0046785714	0.0008214286	0.0008214286
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using linear regression on logarithm)	0.9921263898	0.9945448817	1.0022155011	1.0056349756
$R^{2}$ for linear regression	0.9660377358	0.9206545064	0.1911127168	0.9446428571

Mean age at birth by period

Mean age at birth

Year	Mean age at birth (all birth orders)	MAB1	MAB2	MAB3	MAB4	MAB5+	MAB40	MAB40_1	MAB40_2	MAB40_3	MAB40_4	MAB40_5+
1947	30.47						29.59
1948	30.19						29.28
1949	29.92						29.16
1950	29.62						28.95
1951	29.54						28.94
1952	29.38						28.85
1953	29.2						28.73
1954	29.03						28.61
1955	28.85						28.47
1956	28.64						28.3
1957	28.44						28.14
1958	28.22						27.96
1959	28.06						27.83
1960	27.89						27.69
1961	27.81						27.63
1962	27.71						27.56
1963	27.71						27.58
1964	27.7						27.58
1965	27.7						27.59
1966	27.66						27.53
1967	27.76						27.67
1968	27.79	25.9	28.58	30.72	32.56	35.8	27.69	25.84	28.53	30.62	32.2	34.38
1969	27.8	25.87	28.53	30.74	32.54	35.69	27.7	25.81	28.48	30.64	32.2	34.3
1970	27.76	25.81	28.48	30.77	32.56	35.51	27.67	25.76	28.43	30.67	32.22	34.19
1971	27.74	25.75	28.43	30.73	32.55	35.36	27.65	25.7	28.37	30.63	32.23	34.09
1972	27.66	25.67	28.36	30.69	32.51	35.38	27.57	25.61	28.3	30.59	32.18	34.16
1973	27.64	25.63	28.28	30.65	32.46	35.16	27.55	25.58	28.22	30.55	32.15	34.08
1974	27.54	25.62	28.18	30.59	32.49	35.3	27.45	25.57	28.13	30.49	32.17	34.1
1975	27.47	25.68	28.16	30.51	32.46	35.26	27.39	25.63	28.11	30.4	32.13	34.11
1976	27.49	25.76	28.15	30.43	32.35	35.29	27.41	25.71	28.1	30.33	32.01	34.08
1977	27.58	25.88	28.21	30.39	32.33	35.29	27.5	25.83	28.17	30.29	32	34.07
1978	27.65	25.95	28.28	30.39	32.36	35.19	27.57	25.91	28.23	30.3	32.01	34
1979	27.7	26.01	28.36	30.41	32.29	35.33	27.63	25.97	28.32	30.33	31.95	34.08
1980	27.75	26.07	28.44	30.51	32.35	35.21	27.68	26.03	28.39	30.43	32.02	33.96
1981	27.83	26.16	28.54	30.62	32.39	35.16	27.76	26.12	28.49	30.54	32.04	33.93
1982	27.92	26.24	28.59	30.73	32.5	35.17	27.85	26.19	28.55	30.64	32.16	33.96
1983	28.02	26.3	28.68	30.86	32.6	35.12	27.95	26.26	28.64	30.78	32.29	33.92
1984	28.12	26.37	28.74	30.94	32.73	35.08	28.05	26.33	28.7	30.85	32.4	33.96
1985	28.26	26.5	28.83	31.02	32.83	35.09	28.19	26.46	28.78	30.93	32.51	34.02
1986	28.38	26.64	28.92	31.11	32.95	35.05	28.31	26.6	28.87	31.03	32.64	33.97
1987	28.52	26.78	29.03	31.23	32.99	35.24	28.45	26.74	28.97	31.14	32.68	34.2
1988	28.68	26.9	29.17	31.35	33.21	35.26	28.59	26.85	29.11	31.25	32.88	34.2
1989	28.81	27.03	29.32	31.5	33.32	35.29	28.72	26.97	29.25	31.39	32.97	34.28
1990	28.94	27.15	29.46	31.62	33.43	35.33	28.84	27.09	29.38	31.51	33.1	34.35
1991	29	27.23	29.58	31.75	33.53	35.36	28.9	27.17	29.5	31.63	33.16	34.39
1992	29.09	27.37	29.67	31.87	33.68	35.43	28.99	27.31	29.59	31.74	33.29	34.45
1993	29.19	27.51	29.79	32	33.78	35.54	29.08	27.44	29.7	31.85	33.36	34.55
1994	29.29	27.64	29.9	32.09	33.88	35.64	29.18	27.57	29.81	31.93	33.44	34.6
1995	29.39	27.75	30	32.16	33.96	35.73	29.26	27.68	29.9	31.98	33.48	34.65
1996	29.5	27.89	30.14	32.23	34.01	35.72	29.37	27.8	30.04	32.05	33.5	34.66
1997	29.57	27.95	30.26	32.32	34.05	35.72	29.43	27.85	30.15	32.11	33.53	34.58
1998	29.63	27.99	30.38	32.4	34.12	35.91	29.47	27.89	30.27	32.18	33.54	34.66
1999	29.65	28.01	30.49	32.47	34.18	35.81	29.48	27.9	30.36	32.24	33.58	34.57
2000	29.68	28.03	30.54	32.55	34.29	35.79	29.5	27.92	30.4	32.3	33.65	34.57
2001	29.68	28.05	30.54	32.59	34.33	35.81	29.49	27.93	30.39	32.33	33.68	34.59
2002	29.71	28.15	30.59	32.64	34.35	35.94	29.51	28.02	30.43	32.35	33.65	34.61
2003	29.83	28.36	30.61	32.61	34.34	35.91	29.61	28.21	30.44	32.3	33.61	34.65
2004	29.93	28.51	30.69	32.59	34.26	35.92	29.7	28.35	30.5	32.27	33.53	34.59
2005	30	28.63	30.76	32.53	34.2	35.86	29.76	28.45	30.55	32.19	33.46	34.48
2006	30.09	28.72	30.88	32.55	34.12	35.77	29.84	28.53	30.66	32.19	33.34	34.39
2007	30.24	28.87	31.02	32.59	34.03	35.62	29.96	28.66	30.78	32.22	33.24	34.25
2008	30.31	28.95	31.09	32.58	33.93	35.55	30.02	28.73	30.83	32.21	33.13	34.18
2009	30.44	29.13	31.22	32.64	33.89	35.33	30.13	28.89	30.93	32.25	33.13	33.98
Average (1968-2009)	28.7445238095	27.0573809524	29.4254761905	31.515952381	33.2783333333	35.4742857143	28.6154761905	26.9728571429	29.3273809524	31.3488095238	32.82	34.2807142857
Median (1968-2009)	28.745	26.965	29.245	31.425	33.265	35.37	28.655	26.91	29.18	31.32	32.925	34.225
Standard deviation (1968-2009)	0.9693427554	1.1172135624	1.0141900586	0.8534751329	0.7638890121	0.2786390519	0.9102082377	1.0695572043	0.9542512312	0.7685564625	0.628086525	0.2520490937
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression)	0.0766850336	0.0893955109	0.079628069	0.0656907868	0.0573608298	0.0126505145	0.072007941	0.085704562	0.0749380115	0.0586330119	0.0451438295	0.0116351997
Multiplier for best logarithm fit (using linear fit on logarithm)	1.0026655941	1.003298838	1.002699542	1.0020836461	1.0017242967	1.000356136	1.002516574	1.0031751711	1.0025509791	1.0018713788	1.0013775446	1.000338998
R^2 for linear regression	0.9418960745	0.963597186	0.9277483064	0.8915869093	0.8486074179	0.3102193711	0.9419237822	0.9663542144	0.9281440216	0.8759298983	0.7774891586	0.3207110369

Standard deviation in age of birth

Year	sdMAB	sdMAB1	sdMAB2	sdMAB3	sdMAB4	sdMAB5+	sdMAB40	sdMAB40_1	sdMAB40_2	sdMAB40_3	sdMAB40_4	sdMAB40_5+
1947	6.03						5.22
1948	6.14						5.33
1949	5.91						5.2
1950	5.77						5.12
1951	5.63						5.03
1952	5.49						4.92
1953	5.36						4.84
1954	5.25						4.76
1955	5.12						4.67
1956	5.01						4.58
1957	4.85						4.45
1958	4.71						4.34
1959	4.59						4.24
1960	4.42						4.11
1961	4.29						4.02
1962	4.19						3.95
1963	4.14						3.92
1964	4.1						3.9
1965	4.06						3.88
1966	4.22						4.01
1967	3.99						3.84
1968	4.03	3.52	3.43	3.45	3.84	4.41	3.87	3.4	3.33	3.3	3.42	3.4
1969	4.03	3.52	3.44	3.45	3.8	4.42	3.87	3.39	3.34	3.31	3.41	3.39
1970	4.03	3.51	3.43	3.45	3.82	4.4	3.88	3.38	3.32	3.3	3.43	3.42
1971	4.02	3.51	3.4	3.43	3.79	4.39	3.87	3.38	3.29	3.28	3.42	3.43
1972	4.03	3.49	3.39	3.42	3.81	4.34	3.87	3.36	3.29	3.28	3.43	3.43
1973	4.03	3.48	3.41	3.42	3.79	4.25	3.88	3.35	3.31	3.28	3.43	3.41
1974	4	3.45	3.4	3.43	3.85	4.36	3.85	3.33	3.3	3.28	3.48	3.48
1975	3.94	3.45	3.37	3.48	3.92	4.34	3.8	3.33	3.27	3.32	3.56	3.5
1976	3.88	3.43	3.32	3.45	3.96	4.39	3.74	3.32	3.23	3.3	3.57	3.54
1977	3.84	3.43	3.3	3.43	3.92	4.41	3.7	3.32	3.21	3.27	3.54	3.53
1978	3.81	3.42	3.27	3.36	3.94	4.42	3.68	3.32	3.19	3.21	3.54	3.6
1979	3.8	3.42	3.26	3.32	3.9	4.45	3.67	3.33	3.18	3.19	3.51	3.58
1980	3.81	3.45	3.27	3.31	3.86	4.48	3.69	3.36	3.19	3.16	3.49	3.64
1981	3.84	3.48	3.31	3.29	3.86	4.47	3.72	3.39	3.23	3.15	3.46	3.61
1982	3.86	3.5	3.33	3.28	3.81	4.41	3.74	3.41	3.24	3.14	3.42	3.53
1983	3.89	3.55	3.34	3.28	3.74	4.37	3.77	3.46	3.26	3.14	3.38	3.48
1984	3.92	3.58	3.38	3.28	3.72	4.3	3.8	3.49	3.3	3.14	3.34	3.46
1985	3.94	3.63	3.42	3.31	3.69	4.24	3.82	3.54	3.33	3.17	3.32	3.42
1986	3.96	3.66	3.46	3.31	3.7	4.24	3.85	3.57	3.38	3.19	3.36	3.4
1987	3.98	3.69	3.47	3.34	3.7	4.18	3.86	3.6	3.38	3.21	3.36	3.39
1988	4.02	3.75	3.51	3.36	3.68	4.17	3.9	3.65	3.42	3.22	3.33	3.36
1989	4.09	3.82	3.57	3.41	3.67	4.15	3.96	3.72	3.47	3.26	3.31	3.4
1990	4.14	3.89	3.61	3.44	3.67	4.04	4	3.79	3.5	3.28	3.33	3.32
1991	4.18	3.93	3.65	3.47	3.73	4.1	4.04	3.82	3.54	3.3	3.36	3.41
1992	4.23	3.98	3.73	3.52	3.75	4.09	4.09	3.88	3.61	3.35	3.39	3.4
1993	4.27	4.04	3.77	3.57	3.78	4.06	4.13	3.93	3.66	3.38	3.38	3.39
1994	4.32	4.1	3.82	3.64	3.84	4.12	4.17	3.99	3.7	3.44	3.44	3.45
1995	4.38	4.18	3.88	3.71	3.9	4.08	4.22	4.07	3.75	3.5	3.48	3.36
1996	4.42	4.24	3.92	3.75	3.95	4.08	4.25	4.12	3.79	3.54	3.52	3.39
1997	4.49	4.34	3.98	3.82	3.99	4.21	4.32	4.2	3.84	3.59	3.55	3.46
1998	4.56	4.42	4.04	3.85	4.06	4.23	4.38	4.28	3.89	3.62	3.58	3.44
1999	4.64	4.5	4.1	3.9	4.11	4.27	4.45	4.36	3.94	3.67	3.64	3.5
2000	4.73	4.61	4.17	3.95	4.14	4.26	4.53	4.46	4.01	3.7	3.65	3.5
2001	4.81	4.71	4.27	4.03	4.16	4.27	4.61	4.55	4.1	3.78	3.66	3.51
2002	4.88	4.79	4.35	4.1	4.26	4.32	4.67	4.62	4.17	3.83	3.74	3.54
2003	4.91	4.85	4.43	4.19	4.32	4.29	4.68	4.66	4.24	3.9	3.79	3.52
2004	4.94	4.91	4.49	4.27	4.36	4.34	4.71	4.71	4.29	3.98	3.83	3.58
2005	4.96	4.94	4.54	4.33	4.43	4.46	4.72	4.72	4.33	4.03	3.9	3.66
2006	4.98	4.96	4.56	4.37	4.53	4.54	4.73	4.74	4.34	4.06	3.97	3.76
2007	5.01	5	4.6	4.4	4.59	4.61	4.74	4.77	4.37	4.08	4.03	3.8
2008	5.04	5.04	4.65	4.42	4.61	4.59	4.76	4.8	4.4	4.1	4.03	3.77
2009	5.06	5.07	4.68	4.43	4.59	4.68	4.77	4.81	4.41	4.1	4.04	3.84
Average (1968-2009)	4.2785714286	4.0057142857	3.7552380952	3.6528571429	3.9652380952	4.315	4.1133333333	3.8733333333	3.6271428571	3.4602380952	3.5433333333	3.5
Median (1968-2009)	4.06	3.785	3.54	3.45	3.86	4.33	3.93	3.685	3.445	3.3	3.48	3.47
Standard deviation (1968-2009)	0.4227065604	0.5798786368	0.4657552906	0.37805204	0.2774556708	0.1566143313	0.3781512581	0.5407387299	0.4160574873	0.3143439789	0.209210673	0.124997561
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression)	0.030493477	0.0444469654	0.0345887691	0.0258844502	0.0163017584	-5.75318045539274E-005	0.0276282311	0.0418928774	0.031131999	0.0213151284	0.0117591767	0.0046657483
Multiplier for best logarithm fit (using linear fit on logarithm)	1.0069625637	1.0108694208	1.0089693165	1.0068332117	1.003954279	0.9999561218	1.006588887	1.0106470664	1.0083893499	1.0059586687	1.0032032028	1.0012951305
R^2 for linear regression	0.7831995317	0.8841918579	0.8300249014	0.7055230676	0.5195390451	0.000020309	0.8033625099	0.9033206291	0.8426434174	0.69199366	0.4754694981	0.2096891884

Mean age of childbearing by cohort

Cohort	Mean age of childbearing (all birth orders), CMAC	CMAC1	CMAC2	CMAC3	CMAC4	CMAC5+	CMAC40	CMAC40_1	CMAC40_2	CMAC40_3	CMAC40_4	CMAC40_5+
1953	27.92	26.03	28.57	31.12	33.08	34.97	27.82	25.96	28.49	30.99	32.64	33.88
1954	28.07	26.18	28.7	31.21	33.22	35.2	27.96	26.12	28.62	31.07	32.77	34.07
1955	28.22	26.35	28.84	31.3	33.34	35.31	28.1	26.28	28.76	31.16	32.88	34.2
1956	28.35	26.51	28.97	31.38	33.43	35.36	28.23	26.43	28.88	31.23	32.95	34.25
1957	28.47	26.67	29.09	31.45	33.5	35.47	28.35	26.58	29	31.29	33.03	34.34
1958	28.55	26.78	29.18	31.5	33.54	35.53	28.42	26.69	29.08	31.34	33.07	34.39
1959	28.64	26.89	29.27	31.55	33.61	35.55	28.49	26.79	29.15	31.38	33.11	34.42
1960							28.59	26.92	29.27	31.44	33.16	34.44
1961							28.7	27.06	29.4	31.49	33.21	34.53
1962							28.8	27.21	29.52	31.55	33.22	34.5
1963							28.92	27.37	29.66	31.64	33.23	34.49
1964							29.05	27.54	29.82	31.73	33.27	34.47
1965							29.15	27.68	29.94	31.77	33.29	34.47
1966							29.25	27.81	30.06	31.83	33.28	34.47
1967							29.36	27.94	30.18	31.93	33.29	34.45
1968							29.45	28.06	30.3	32.01	33.36	34.48
1969							29.55	28.17	30.4	32.09	33.42	34.52

Tempo-adjusted total fertility rate

The tempo-adjusted total fertility rates have been computed using the Bongarts-Feeney formula below.

Year	AdjTFR	AdjTFR1	AdjTFR2	AdjTFR3	AdjTFR4	AdjTFR5+	AdjTFR1 proportion	AdjTFR2 proportion	AdjTFR3 proportion	AdjTFR4 proportion	AdjTFR5+ proportion
1969	2.045	0.898	0.801	0.281	0.048	0.017	0.4391198044	0.3916870416	0.137408313	0.0234718826	0.0083129584
1970	2.033	0.886	0.801	0.283	0.048	0.016	0.435809149	0.3939990162	0.1392031481	0.0236104279	0.0078701426
1971	2.027	0.866	0.81	0.286	0.047	0.017	0.4272323631	0.3996053281	0.1410952146	0.0231869758	0.0083867785
1972	2.012	0.882	0.779	0.288	0.047	0.016	0.4383697813	0.3871769384	0.1431411531	0.023359841	0.0079522863
1973	2.031	0.904	0.763	0.295	0.051	0.018	0.4451009355	0.3756770064	0.145248646	0.0251107829	0.0088626292
1974	2	0.925	0.748	0.265	0.045	0.017	0.4625	0.374	0.1325	0.0225	0.0085
1975	1.93	0.918	0.746	0.218	0.034	0.014	0.4756476684	0.3865284974	0.1129533679	0.0176165803	0.007253886
1976	1.936	0.909	0.767	0.213	0.032	0.013	0.4695247934	0.396177686	0.1100206612	0.0165289256	0.006714876
1977	1.915	0.87	0.78	0.22	0.033	0.012	0.454308094	0.407310705	0.1148825065	0.017232376	0.0062663185
1978	1.89	0.831	0.786	0.23	0.031	0.012	0.4396825397	0.4158730159	0.1216931217	0.0164021164	0.0063492063
1979	1.876	0.82	0.769	0.245	0.03	0.01	0.4371002132	0.4099147122	0.1305970149	0.0159914712	0.0053304904
1980	1.885	0.84	0.75	0.254	0.032	0.009	0.4456233422	0.3978779841	0.1347480106	0.0169761273	0.0047745358
1981	1.884	0.857	0.729	0.256	0.033	0.009	0.4548832272	0.3869426752	0.135881104	0.0175159236	0.0047770701
1982	1.906	0.853	0.738	0.27	0.036	0.009	0.4475341028	0.3871983211	0.1416579224	0.018887723	0.0047219307
1983	1.937	0.866	0.748	0.276	0.038	0.009	0.4470831182	0.3861641714	0.1424883841	0.0196179659	0.0046463604
1984	1.97	0.886	0.755	0.279	0.04	0.009	0.4497461929	0.383248731	0.1416243655	0.0203045685	0.0045685279
1985	1.97	0.877	0.759	0.285	0.04	0.009	0.445177665	0.3852791878	0.1446700508	0.0203045685	0.0045685279
1986	1.95	0.864	0.748	0.29	0.039	0.01	0.4430769231	0.3835897436	0.1487179487	0.02	0.0051282051
1987	1.934	0.832	0.755	0.296	0.041	0.01	0.430196484	0.3903826267	0.1530506722	0.0211995863	0.0051706308
1988	1.914	0.8	0.757	0.304	0.044	0.009	0.4179728318	0.3955067921	0.1588296761	0.0229885057	0.0047021944
1989	1.815	0.768	0.708	0.29	0.041	0.009	0.4231404959	0.3900826446	0.1597796143	0.0225895317	0.0049586777
1990	1.745	0.737	0.675	0.281	0.042	0.009	0.4223495702	0.3868194842	0.1610315186	0.0240687679	0.0051575931
1991	1.731	0.766	0.644	0.271	0.042	0.009	0.4425187753	0.3720392837	0.1565569035	0.0242634315	0.0051993068
1992	1.72	0.79	0.623	0.256	0.042	0.009	0.4593023256	0.3622093023	0.1488372093	0.0244186047	0.0052325581
1993	1.671	0.777	0.608	0.238	0.038	0.009	0.4649910233	0.3638539797	0.1424296828	0.0227408737	0.0053859964
1994	1.693	0.794	0.619	0.23	0.04	0.01	0.4689899587	0.3656231542	0.1358535145	0.0236266982	0.0059066745
1995	1.606	0.754	0.593	0.212	0.038	0.009	0.4694894147	0.3692403487	0.1320049813	0.0236612702	0.0056039851
1996	1.597	0.732	0.611	0.21	0.035	0.009	0.4583594239	0.3825923607	0.131496556	0.0219160927	0.0056355667
1997	1.519	0.687	0.588	0.201	0.034	0.01	0.4522712311	0.3870967742	0.1323238973	0.0223831468	0.0065832785
1998	1.492	0.68	0.578	0.193	0.033	0.009	0.4557640751	0.3873994638	0.1293565684	0.0221179625	0.0060321716
1999	1.418	0.666	0.532	0.181	0.032	0.008	0.4696755994	0.3751763047	0.1276445698	0.0225669958	0.0056417489
2000	1.4	0.674	0.51	0.176	0.032	0.008	0.4814285714	0.3642857143	0.1257142857	0.0228571429	0.0057142857
2001	1.398	0.695	0.498	0.167	0.03	0.009	0.4971387697	0.356223176	0.1194563662	0.0214592275	0.0064377682
2002	1.457	0.778	0.492	0.152	0.027	0.008	0.533973919	0.3376801647	0.1043239533	0.0185312286	0.0054907344
2003	1.451	0.779	0.498	0.142	0.025	0.008	0.5368711234	0.3432115782	0.0978635424	0.0172294969	0.005513439
2004	1.42	0.738	0.514	0.136	0.024	0.007	0.5197183099	0.361971831	0.0957746479	0.0169014085	0.0049295775
2005	1.369	0.692	0.511	0.136	0.023	0.007	0.5054784514	0.373265157	0.0993425858	0.0168005844	0.0051132213
2006	1.476	0.736	0.555	0.153	0.024	0.007	0.4986449864	0.3760162602	0.1036585366	0.0162601626	0.0047425474
2007	1.474	0.741	0.541	0.159	0.025	0.007	0.5027137042	0.3670284939	0.1078697422	0.0169606513	0.0047489824
2008	1.512	0.767	0.543	0.167	0.028	0.008	0.5072751323	0.3591269841	0.1104497354	0.0185185185	0.0052910053
Mean	1.750225	0.803375	0.66825	0.232125	0.0361	0.01035	0.4618946022	0.380377066	0.1313044923	0.0205669536	0.0058544169
Median	1.8455	0.797	0.7185	0.2415	0.0355	0.009	0.4545956606	0.3844344657	0.1336240053	0.0213294069	0.0054383654
Standard deviation	0.2292455282	0.0763375391	0.1079023181	0.0528773072	0.0074551651	0.0031341788	0.0302267785	0.0168703565	0.0179891874	0.0029024389	0.0012288164
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression)	-0.018332364	-0.0055712008	-0.0086386492	-0.0034464353	-0.0004414634	-0.0002223265	0.001791493	-0.0009922883	-0.0006900574	-4.10824401118291E-005	-6.10066483665693E-005
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression)	0.9893212128	0.9930591068	0.9867216718	0.9836514642	0.9873868089	0.9803553931	1.0037782411	0.9973723994	0.9942690518	0.998044716	0.9909374027

Fertility and mortality: the story for surviving kids

A "surviving kids per woman" value of about 2 suggests that the population remains near-constant in the long run.

Year	TFR	Surviving kids per woman	Survival ratio (fraction of kids surviving to age 35)
1800	4.08032	2.0538143745	0.503346398
1801		2.0684248428
1802		2.0830353106
1803		2.0976457789
1804		2.1122562471
1805		2.1268667149
1806		2.1414771832
1807		2.1560876515
1808		2.1706981193
1809		2.1853085875
1810		2.1999190558
1811		2.2145295236
1812	4.42864	2.2291399919	0.503346398
1813		2.231307479
1814		2.2334749661
1815		2.2356424532
1816		2.2378099398
1817		2.2399774269
1818		2.242144914
1819		2.2443124011
1820		2.2464798882
1821		2.2486473753
1822		2.2508148619
1823		2.252982349
1824		2.2551498361
1825		2.2573173232
1826		2.2594848103
1827		2.2616522974
1828		2.2638197845
1829		2.2659872711
1830		2.2681547583
1831		2.2703222454
1832		2.2724897325
1833		2.2746572196
1834		2.2768247067
1835		2.2789921933
1836		2.2811596804
1837		2.2833271675
1838	4.5406	2.2854946546	0.503346398
1839		2.2915058186
1840		2.2975169826
1841		2.3035281467
1842		2.3095393107
1843		2.3155504747
1844		2.3215616387
1845		2.3275728028
1846		2.3335839668
1847		2.3395951308
1848		2.3456062948
1849		2.3516174588
1850		2.3576286229
1851		2.3636397869
1852		2.3696509509
1853		2.3756621149
1854		2.381673279
1855		2.387684443
1856		2.393695607
1857		2.399706771
1858		2.4057179351
1859		2.4117290991
1860		2.4177402631
1861		2.4237514271
1862		2.4297625911
1863	4.83916	2.4357737552	0.503346398
1864		2.3640572528
1865		2.2923407505
1866		2.2206242482
1867		2.1489077463
1868		2.1406598326
1869		2.0667520322
1870		1.9928442318
1871		1.9189364314
1872		1.8450286309
1873	3.4143658113	1.7711208305	0.5187261496
1874	3.5178314419	1.8247911589	0.5187261496
1875	3.7395435076	1.9397990052	0.5187261497
1876	3.754324312	1.9474661948	0.5187261496
1877	3.6656394857	1.9014630565	0.5187261497
1878	3.5769546594	1.8554599176	0.5187261496
1879	3.5473930507	1.8401255385	0.5187261497
1880	3.5917354638	1.8631271077	0.5187261496
1881	3.7691051163	1.9551333843	0.5187261496
1882	3.6656394857	1.9014630565	0.5187261497
1883	3.9612555733	2.054806851	0.5187261496
1884	3.7986667251	1.9704677639	0.5187261496
1885	3.9760363776	2.0624740411	0.5187261497
1886	4.0351595951	2.0931427998	0.5187261496
1887	4.0351595951	2.0931427998	0.5187261496
1888	4.4342413133	2.3677171097	0.533962169
1889	4.537706944	2.4229638425	0.5339621691
1890	4.1829676389	2.2335464737	0.5339621691
1891	3.990817182	2.1309453989	0.5339621691
1892	4.4046797046	2.3519323294	0.5339621691
1893	4.2568716608	2.2730084256	0.5339621691
1894	4.3455564871	2.3203627676	0.5339621691
1895	4.3603372915	2.3282551578	0.533962169
1896	4.5081453352	2.4071790616	0.533962169
1897	4.655953379	2.4861029654	0.5339621691
1898	4.7150765965	2.5176725271	0.5339621691
1899	4.7298574009	2.5255649173	0.5339621691
1900	4.6855149878	2.5725825255	0.5490501113
1901	5.0106926841	2.7511213757	0.5490501113
1902	4.966350271	2.7267751689	0.5490501113
1903	4.8333230316	2.6537365485	0.5490501113
1904	4.6116109659	2.532005514	0.5490501113
1905	4.5229261396	2.4833131004	0.5490501113
1906	4.3751180958	2.4021590774	0.5490501113
1907	5.0254734885	2.8343028834	0.5639872322
1908	5.1289391191	2.8926561782	0.5639872323
1909	5.1585007279	2.9093285483	0.5639872323
1910	5.0106926841	2.8259666986	0.5639872323
1911	5.1880623366	2.9260009183	0.5639872323
1912	5.084596706	2.8676476235	0.5639872323
1913	5.0698159016	2.9342411744	0.5787668096
1914	5.1437199235	2.9770143689	0.5787668095
1915	4.9072270534	2.840140145	0.5787668095
1916	4.9811310753	2.8829133401	0.5787668095
1917	4.9515694666	2.8658040625	0.5787668096
1918	4.8333230316	2.8680317848	0.5933871513
1919	4.774199814	2.8329488269	0.5933871512
1920	5.35	3.1746212589	0.5933871512
1921	5.22	3.0974809293	0.5933871512
1922	5.12	3.1121511774	0.6078420268
1923	5.26	3.1972490612	0.6078420268
1924	5.07	3.1541852742	0.622127273
1925	5.22	3.2475043652	0.622127273
1926	5.19	3.3020899698	0.636240842
1927	5	3.2508682219	0.6501736444
1928	5.09	3.3093838499	0.6501736444
1929	4.87	3.1663456481	0.6501736444
1930	4.82	3.2001245759	0.6639262606
1931	4.76	3.1602890002	0.6639262606
1932	4.86	3.2266816263	0.6639262606
1933	4.63	3.1367898935	0.6774924176
1934	4.39	2.9741917133	0.6774924176
1935	4.59	3.1096901968	0.6774924176
1936	4.34	2.9983652662	0.6908675729
1937	4.45	3.0743606992	0.6908675729
1938	3.88	2.6805661827	0.6908675729
1939	3.8	2.6252967769	0.6908675729
1940	4.14	2.8601917516	0.6908675729
1941	4.36	3.0121826177	0.6908675729
1942	4.18	2.8878264545	0.6908675729
1943	4.11	2.6722136784	0.6501736444
1944	3.95	2.2277495675	0.5639872323
1945	3.11	1.3201060833	0.4244714094
1946	3.37	2.2374314981	0.6639262606
1947	4.51	3.2913641856	0.7297925024
1948	4.38	3.4620268485	0.7904170887
1949	4.3	3.4479074761	0.8018389479
1950	3.51	2.8536721626	0.8130120121
1951	3.367	2.812553737	0.8353292952
1952	3.096	2.6507399696	0.8561821607
1953	2.856	2.4455213913	0.856274997
1954	2.647	2.3172154258	0.8754119478
1955	2.468	2.1825747364	0.8843495691
1956	2.32	2.0500297119	0.8836334965
1957	2.201	1.9439936924	0.8832320274
1958	2.11	1.8832549918	0.8925379108
1959	2.044	1.8382620599	0.8993454305
1960	2.001	1.8022177058	0.9006585236
1961	1.976	1.7841955287	0.9029329599
1962	1.965	1.7913837121	0.911645655
1963	1.965	1.8069258306	0.9195551301
1964	1.97	1.8069258306	0.9172212338
1965	1.98	1.8160980429	0.9172212338
1966	1.997	1.8490678593	0.9259228139
1967	2.02	1.8675585379	0.9245339297
1968	2.048	1.9095270769	0.932386268
1969	2.077	1.9374713755	0.9328220393
1970	2.101	1.956100908	0.9310332737
1971	2.113	1.9788342091	0.9365045949
1972	2.109	1.9788342091	0.9382808009
1973	2.087	1.9600774867	0.9391842294
1974	2.048	1.93400458	0.9443381738
1975	1.997	1.8868337365	0.9448341195
1976	1.94	1.8404835047	0.9487028375
1977	1.885	1.7930483629	0.9512192906
1978	1.838	1.7541038203	0.9543546356
1979	1.802	1.7159711285	0.9522592278
1980	1.777	1.6969047826	0.9549267207
1981	1.761	1.6853812561	0.9570592028
1982	1.751	1.6758052262	0.9570560972
1983	1.741	1.6662291964	0.957052956
1984	1.73	1.6633258337	0.9614600195
1985	1.715	1.6537112335	0.9642631099
1986	1.695	1.6344820331	0.9642961847
1987	1.67	1.6112644302	0.9648290001
1988	1.641	1.5823195602	0.9642410483
1989	1.607	1.5533746902	0.9666301744
1990	1.571	1.5147815302	0.9642148505
1991	1.535	1.4858366602	0.9679717656
1992	1.499	1.4472435002	0.9654726485
1993	1.467	1.4229599729	0.9699795316
1994	1.438	1.3939199734	0.9693462958
1995	1.413	1.364879974	0.9659447799
1996	1.392	1.3455199744	0.966609177
1997	1.372	1.3301168177	0.9694728992
1998	1.354	1.3204079358	0.9751904991
1999	1.337	1.300990172	0.9730666956
2000	1.322	1.2815724083	0.9694193709
2001	1.31	1.2754038307	0.9735907104
2002	1.303	1.2656679236	0.9713491355
2003	1.3	1.2656679236	0.9735907104
2004	1.301	1.2559320165	0.9653589673
2005	1.307	1.2656679236	0.9683763761
2006	1.317	1.2689559314	0.9635200694
2007	1.329	1.2787171309	0.962164884
2008	1.343	1.2982395298	0.9666712806
2009	1.359	1.3177619288	0.9696555767
2010	1.374	1.3275231282	0.966174038
2011	1.389
2012	1.405
Mean (1873-2010)	3.3066870191	2.2263275793	0.7425261319
Median (1873-2010)	3.6656394857	2.0778084204	0.6908675729
Standard deviation (1873-2010)	1.4083658131	0.6374520353	0.1849666117
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1873-2010)	-0.028899737	-0.0087381739	0.0043928812
R^2 for linear regression (1873-2010)	0.6730843202	0.3003716783	0.9016227919
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1873-2010)	0.9895231085	0.995508162	1.0060484222