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| ==Data sources== | | ==Data sources== |
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| Most of the data on this page comes from the [[Human Fertility Database]] (website [http://www.humanfertility.org www.humanfertility.org]) (data downloaded on December 2, 2013, last updated August 8, 2012). The data collected by the Human Fertility Database is based on government data collection by the government of Japan. Details about the modalities of data collection are available [http://www.humanfertility.org/Docs/JPN/JPNcom.pdf here].
| | * {{HFD source|country = Japan|country code = JPN|update date = August 8, 2012|download date = December 2, 2013}} |
| | | * {{Gapminder standard fertility indicators}} |
| ==Qualitative history of fertility-relevant events and trends==
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| ===Key events===
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| See [[Wikipedia:Abortion in Japan]].
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| {| class="sortable" border="1" | |
| ! Year !! Event !! Postulated effects seen in fertility statistics
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| | 1869 || abortion was banned nationwide, but punishment was rare except in cases of adultery or death to the mother ||
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| | 1880 || ban on abortion was included in the penal code ||
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| | 1907 || women could be incarcerated for up to a year for having an abortion; practitioners could be jailed for up to seven. ||
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| | 1923 || doctors were granted legal permission to perform emergency abortions to save the mother's life; abortions performed under different, less life-threatening circumstances were still prosecuted. ||
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| | 1940 || National Eugenic Law outlined a set of procedures doctors needed to follow in order to get an abortion. || Some commentators claim this was causally responsible for a huge decline in the number of abortions 1941-1944.
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| | 1948 || passage of [[Eugenic Protection Law]] legalizing abortion and facilitating the provision of family planning services || This may have contributed to the rapid decline in birth rates and fertility in the 1949-1955 period.
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| | 1966 || inauspicious year for births. || sudden dip in fertility rates.
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| | 1973 || change in data collection modalities || Jumps or discontinuities at this year are likely attributable to the change in data collection modality.
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| | 1996 || replacement of the Eugenic Protection Law by the Maternal Health Protection Law, making abortion illegal except in case the fetus had significant defects or in case of danger to the mother's health || No discernible effect, but probably because the law itself didn't change reality on the ground.
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| | 1999 || birth control pills were legalized, see [http://www.nbcnews.com/id/5726375/#.UvuvUoXl68w here] || No discernible effect
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| |-
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| | 2006 || abortion was officially made legal conditional to the mother's consent || No discernible effect, but probably because the law itself didn't change reality on the ground.
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| |}
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| ===Trends in period fertility=== | |
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| The fertility history of Japan can be subdivided into the following rough periods. Fertility history prior to 1947 relies on Gapminder, which uses the less reliable UN data, whereas fertility history 1947 onward uses the higher reliability HFD data. However, for the part 1947 onward, the Gapminder and HFD data paint a similar picture, and the only qualitative difference is that the Gapminder data fail to capture the dip in 1966.
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| {| class="sortable" border="1"
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| ! Time period !! Trend in fertility !! Some numbers !! Details
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| | 1873-1901 || huge increase || TFR increased from 3.41 to 5.01 ||
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| | 1901-1906 || rapid decrease || TFR decreased from 5.01 to 4.37 ||
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| | 1907-1919 || upward jump, followed by modest decrease || TFR jumped up to 5.02 (from 4.37 the previous year), then decreased gradually to 4.77 || The introduction of explicit penalties for women who have abortions in 1907 might explain the jump.
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| | 1920-1939 || rapid decrease || TFR decreased from 5.35 to 3.8 || The sudden change between 1919 and 1920 may be attributable to the change in data source.
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| | 1939-1947 || fluctuation || TFR increased from 3.8 to 4.5, but with fluctuations || The war years of 1944 and 1945 were particularly bad for TFR.
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| | 1947-1961 || huge decrease || CBR decreased from 34.65 to 16.99<br>TFR decreased from 4.566 to 1.963 (crossing replacement levels in 1959) || Possibly exacerbated by the legalization of abortion in 1948. Note that the starting point of 1947 is the earliest year for which reliable data can be found, and Japan was also involved in World War II till 1945. Therefore, the relevance of legal abortion in the decline of fertility is hard to test.
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| | 1962-1973 || modest increase || CBR increased from 17.14 to 19.35<br>TFR increased from 1.974 to 2.135<br>1973 was the last year with above-replacement fertility || The year 1966, an inauspicious year for births, was in the middle of this period. Adjusting for the huge decline in birth sin these year and the subsequently slightly-above-normal value next year, we see a steady and modest increase in fertility over the period. Tightening of abortion laws is probably part of the explanation.
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| | 1974-present || gradual decrease || CBR decreased from 18.52 to 8.5<br>TFR decreased from 2.04 to 1.361 || The decline was not steady, with small upticks in a few years, including what may be a more long-term rebound 2005-2009 (further data would be necessary to verify that). But the overall direction of decline is pretty strong.
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| |}
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| ===Trends in completed fertility===
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| {{fillin}} | |
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| ==Key quantitative metrics== | | ==Key quantitative metrics== |
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| {| class="sortable" border="1" | | {| class="sortable" border="1" |
| ! Metric !! Direct fertility measure, comparable with [[replacement fertility]] value of 2.1? !! Period measure or cohort measure? !! Most recent measurement !! Year !! Extreme values, along with year and source | | ! Metric !! Direct fertility measure, comparable with [[replacement fertility]] value of 2.1? !! Period measure or cohort measure? !! Most recent measurement !! Year !! Data year range, with link to data !! Maximum in range !! Minimum in range |
| |- | | |- |
| | [[crude birth rate]] (CBR) || No || Period || 8.5 || 2009 || Data available 1947-2009; maximum value 34.65 in 1947, minimum value 8.43 in 2005. | | | [[crude birth rate]] (CBR) || No || Period || 8.5 || 2009 || [[period fertility in Japan#Crude birth rate|1947-2009]] || 34.65<br>(1947) || 8.43<br>(2005) |
| |- | | |- |
| | [[total fertility rate]] (TFR) || Yes || Period || 1.361 || 2009 || Data available 1947-2009; maximum value 4.566 in 1947, minimum value 1.254 in 2005 | | | [[total fertility rate]] (TFR) || Yes || Period || 1.361 || 2009 || [[period fertility in Japan#Total fertility rate|1947-2009]] || 4.566<br>(1947) || 1.254<br>(2005) |
| |- | | |- |
| | TFR40 || Yes(ish) ||Period || 1.324 || 2009 || Data available 1947-2009; maximum value 4.252 in 1947, minimum value 1.228 in 2005 | | | TFR40 || Yes(ish) ||Period || 1.324 || 2009 || [[Period fertility in Japan|1947-2009]] || 4.252<br>(1947) || 1.228<br>(2005) |
| |- | | |- |
| | CBR proportions by birth order || No || Period || birth orders 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (and more) (respectively): 0.479, 0.365, 0.126, 0.024, 0.007 || 2009 || Data available 1968-2009 | | | CBR proportions by birth order || No || Period || birth orders 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (and more) (respectively): 0.479, 0.365, 0.126, 0.024, 0.007 || 2009 || [[Period fertility in Japan#Crude birth rate|1968-2009]] || || |
| |- | | |- |
| | TFR proportions by birth order || No || Period || birth orders 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (and more) (respectively): 0.495, 0.357, 0.118, 0.022, 0.007 || 2009 || Data available 1968-2009 | | | TFR proportions by birth order || No || Period || birth orders 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (and more) (respectively): 0.495, 0.357, 0.118, 0.022, 0.007 || 2009 || [[Period fertility in Japan#Total fertility rate|1968-2009]] || || |
| |- | | |- |
| | [[Completed cohort fertility]] || Yes || Cohort || 1.87 || 1959 || Data available for birth cohorts 1932-1959; maximum value 2.071 for 1941 cohort, minimum value 1.851 for 1945 cohort | | | [[Completed cohort fertility]] || Yes || Cohort || 1.87 || 1959 || [[Completed fertility in Japan#Completed cohort fertility|1932-1959]] || 2.071<br>(1941 <br>cohort) || 1.851<br>(1945<br>cohort) |
| |- | | |- |
| | CCF40 || Yes(ish) || Cohort || 1.444 || 1969 || Data available for birth cohorts 1932-1969; maximum value 2.062 for 1941 cohort, minimum value 1.444 for 1969 cohort | | | CCF40 || Yes(ish) || Cohort || 1.444 || 1969 || [[Completed fertility in Japan|1932-1969]] || 2.062<br>(1941<br>cohort) || 1.444<br>(1969<br>cohort) |
| |- | | |- |
| | [[Mean age of birth]] || No || Period || 30.44 || 2009 || Data available for 1947-2009; maximum value 30.47 in 1947, minimum value 27.47 in 1975 | | | [[Mean age at birth]] || No || Period || 30.44 || 2009 || [[Age distribution of mothers at birth in Japan#Mean age at birth|1947-2009]] || 30.47<br>(1947) || 27.47<br>(1975) |
| |- | | |- |
| | [[Mean age of childbearing]] for [[birth cohort]]s|| No || Cohort || 28.64 || 1959 || Data available for birth cohorts 1953-1969; maximum value 28.64 for 1959 cohort, minimum value 27.92 for 1953 cohort | | | [[Cohort mean age at birth]] || No || Cohort || 28.64 || 1959 || [[Age distribution of mothers at birth in Japan#Cohort mean age at birth|1953-1959]] || 28.64<br>(1959<br>cohort) || 27.92<br>(1953<br>cohort) |
| |- | | |- |
| | [[Mean age of childbearing]] for birth cohorts till the age of 40 (CMAC40) || No || Cohort || 29.55|| 1969 || Data available for birth cohorts 1953-1969; maximum value 29.55 for 1969 cohort, minimum value 27.82 for 1953 cohort | | | [[Cohort mean age at birth]] for birth cohorts till the age of 40 (CMAB40) || No || Cohort || 29.55|| 1969 || [[Age distribution of mothers at birth in Japan#Cohort mean age at birth|1953-1969]] || 29.55<br>(1969) || 27.82<br>(1953) |
| |- | | |- |
| | [[Tempo-adjusted total fertility rate]] (period measure) || Yes || Period || 1.512 || 2008 || Data available for 1969-2008; maximum value 2.045 in 1969, minimum value 1.369 in 2005 | | | [[Tempo-adjusted total fertility rate]] (period measure) || Yes || Period || 1.512 || 2008 || [[Tempo-adjusted total fertility rate in Japan|1969-2008]] || 2.045<br>(1969) || 1.369<br>(2005) |
| |} | | |} |
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| ==Data on period fertility== | | ==Qualitative history of fertility-relevant events and trends== |
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| ===Total indicators only without breakdown by birth order=== | | ===Key events=== |
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| <section begin=periodfertility-main/>
| | See [[Wikipedia:Abortion in Japan]] for the abortion timeline, and [http://www.eastwestcenter.org/fileadmin/stored/pdfs/POPwp118.pdf this paper] for the pro-natalist policy timeline. |
| {| class="sortable" border="1" | | {| class="sortable" border="1" |
| !Year|| [[crude birth rate|CBR]] (births per 1000 people per year) ||CBR minus previous year's CBR ||[[total fertility rate|TFR]] (sum of all [[age-specific fertility rate]]s), ballpark for [[replacement fertility]] is 2.1||TFR minus previous year's TFR|| TFR40 (sum of [[age-specific fertility rate]]s up to the age of 40), almost equal to TFR because births above the age of 40 are rare ||TFR40 minus previous year's TFR40 | | ! Year !! Type of event !! Direction (pronatalist versus antinatalist) based on intentions and naive reasoning about effects !! Event !! Postulated effects seen in fertility statistics !! [[Total fertility rate]] values in that year and nearby years (relevant year in bold) |
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| |1947||34.65||||4.566||||4.252||
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| |'''1948''' (passage of '''Eugenic Protection Law''' permitting abortion and facilitating provision of fmaily planning services) ||33.95||-0.7||4.444||-0.122||4.132||-0.12
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| |1949||33.42||-0.53||4.357||-0.087||4.101||-0.031
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| |1950||28.42||-5||3.672||-0.685||3.486||-0.615
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| |1951||25.55||-2.87||3.281||-0.391||3.13||-0.356
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| |1952||23.6||-1.95||2.995||-0.286||2.874||-0.256
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| |1953||21.67||-1.93||2.713||-0.282||2.617||-0.257
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| |1954||20.27||-1.4||2.502||-0.211||2.423||-0.194
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| |1955||19.58||-0.69||2.383||-0.119||2.316||-0.107
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| |1956||18.63||-0.95||2.236||-0.147||2.18||-0.136
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| |1957||17.38||-1.25||2.058||-0.178||2.013||-0.167
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| |1958||18.18||0.8||2.129||0.071||2.089||0.076
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| |'''1959''' (first year with TFR below [[replacement fertility]])||17.71||-0.47||2.061||-0.068||2.027||-0.062
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| |1960||17.33||-0.38||2.008||-0.053||1.98||-0.047
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| |1961 ||16.99||-0.34||1.963||-0.045||1.94||-0.04
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| |1962||17.14||0.15||1.974||0.011||1.954||0.014
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| |1963||17.4||0.26||2.001||0.027||1.983||0.029
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| |1964||17.81||0.41||2.045||0.044||2.028||0.045
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| |1965||18.72||0.91||2.145||0.1||2.129||0.101
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| |'''1966''' (inauspicious year for births) ||13.85||-4.87||1.579||-0.566||1.565||-0.564
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| |1967||19.49||5.64||2.224||0.645||2.21||0.645
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| |1968||18.63||-0.86||2.127||-0.097||2.112||-0.098
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| |1969||18.58||-0.05||2.119||-0.008||2.105||-0.007
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| |1970||18.8||0.22||2.129||0.01||2.115||0.01
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| |1971||19.21||0.41||2.153||0.024||2.139||0.024
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| |1972||19.3||0.09||2.138||-0.015||2.125||-0.014
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| |'''1973''' (last year with TFR above the [[replacement fertility]] level; also, first year with new data collection modality) ||19.35||0.05||2.135||-0.003||2.121||-0.004
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| |1974||18.52||-0.83||2.04||-0.095||2.028||-0.093
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| |1975||17.14||-1.38||1.9||-0.14||1.889||-0.139
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| |1976||16.34||-0.8||1.84||-0.06||1.83||-0.059
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| |1977||15.5||-0.84||1.786||-0.054||1.776||-0.054
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| |1978||14.95||-0.55||1.774||-0.012||1.765||-0.011
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| |1979||14.25||-0.7||1.751||-0.023||1.742||-0.023
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| |1980||13.57||-0.68||1.731||-0.02||1.722||-0.02
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| |1981||13.07||-0.5||1.726||-0.005||1.718||-0.004
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| |1982||12.86||-0.21||1.755||0.029||1.746||0.028
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| |1983||12.72||-0.14||1.788||0.033||1.779||0.033
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| |1984||12.48||-0.24||1.8||0.012||1.79||0.011
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| |1985||11.92||-0.56||1.757||-0.043||1.747||-0.043
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| |1986||11.45||-0.47||1.719||-0.038||1.709||-0.038
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| |1987||11.1||-0.35||1.689||-0.03||1.68||-0.029
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| |1988||10.79||-0.31||1.657||-0.032||1.647||-0.033
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| |1989||10.2||-0.59||1.576||-0.081||1.565||-0.082
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| |1990||9.96||-0.24||1.543||-0.033||1.531||-0.034
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| |1991||9.95||-0.01||1.537||-0.006||1.525||-0.006
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| |1992||9.8||-0.15||1.506||-0.031||1.493||-0.032
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| |1993||9.61||-0.19||1.464||-0.042||1.451||-0.042
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| |- | | |- |
| |1994||9.98||0.37||1.507||0.043||1.493||0.042 | | | 1869 || [[fertility policy]] || pronatalist || abortion was banned nationwide, but punishment was rare except in cases of adultery or death to the mother || || |
| |- | | |- |
| |1995||9.55||-0.43||1.426||-0.081||1.411||-0.082 | | | 1880 || [[fertility policy]] || pronatalist || ban on abortion was included in the penal code || || |
| |- | | |- |
| |1996||9.68||0.13||1.43||0.004||1.414||0.003 | | | 1907 || [[fertility policy]] || pronatalist || women could be incarcerated for up to a year for having an abortion; practitioners could be jailed for up to seven. || || |
| |- | | |- |
| |1997||9.54||-0.14||1.392||-0.038||1.376||-0.038 | | | 1923 || [[fertility policy]] || antinatalist || doctors were granted legal permission to perform emergency abortions to save the mother's life; abortions performed under different, less life-threatening circumstances were still prosecuted. || || |
| |- | | |- |
| |1998||9.61||0.07||1.388||-0.004||1.371||-0.005 | | | 1940 || [[fertility policy]] || pronatalist || National Eugenic Law outlined a set of procedures doctors needed to follow in order to get an abortion. || Some commentators claim this was causally responsible for a huge decline in the number of abortions 1941-1944. || |
| |- | | |- |
| |1999||9.39||-0.22||1.347||-0.041||1.329||-0.042 | | | 1948 || [[fertility policy]] || antinatalist || passage of [[Eugenic Protection Law]] legalizing abortion and facilitating the provision of family planning services || This may have contributed to the rapid decline in birth rates and fertility in the 1949-1955 period. || 4.566, '''4.444''', 4.357, 3.672 |
| |- | | |- |
| |2000||9.49||0.1||1.359||0.012||1.339||0.01 | | | 1966 || superstition || antinatalist (but temporary) || inauspicious year for births. || sudden dip in fertility rates. || 2.045, 2.145, '''1.579''', 2.224, 2.127 |
| |- | | |- |
| |2001||9.31||-0.18||1.336||-0.023||1.316||-0.023 | | | 1972 || [[family policy]] || pronatalist || The Japanese government, foreseeing that fertility would soon drop to below the [[replacement fertility]] level, introduced a per-child subsidy. || || |
| |- | | |- |
| |2002||9.16||-0.15||1.318||-0.018||1.297||-0.019 | | | 1973 || measurement issue || -- || change in data collection modalities || Jumps or discontinuities at this year are likely attributable to the change in data collection modality. || 2.153, 2.138, '''2.135''', 2.04, 1.9 |
| |- | | |- |
| |2003||8.91||-0.25||1.29||-0.028||1.266||-0.031 | | | 1991 || [[family policy]] || pronatalist || Childcare Leave Act passed by Japanese government aimed at helping working mothers || || 1.576, 1.543, '''1.537''', 1.506, 1.464 |
| |- | | |- |
| |2004||8.81||-0.1||1.288||-0.002||1.263||-0.003 | | | 1992 || [[family policy]] || pronatalist || The government offers 12 months of parental leave for parents who meet minimum work requirements.[https://www.eastwestcenter.org/system/tdf/private/api131.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=36147] || No discernible effect || 1.580, 1.546, '''1.511''', 1.476, 1.455 |
| |- | | |- |
| |2005||8.43||-0.38||1.254||-0.034||1.228||-0.035 | | | 1994 || [[family policy]] || pronatalist || government passed a four-year Angel Plan 1995-99 (officially known as the "Basic Direction for Future Childbearing Support Measures") with the primary goal being to establish more day-care centers to make parenting easier (and thereby, more attractive) || No discernible effect || 1.506, 1.464, '''1.507''', 1.426, 1.43 |
| |- | | |- |
| |2006||8.67||0.24||1.313||0.059||1.285||0.057 | | | 1995 || [[family policy]] || pronatalist || The government adds income compensation to parental leave.[https://www.eastwestcenter.org/system/tdf/private/api131.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=36147] || || 1.476, 1.455, '''1.433''', 1.412, 1.390 |
| |- | | |- |
| |2007||8.64||-0.03||1.331||0.018||1.299||0.014 | | | 1996 || [[fertility policy]] || pronatalist || replacement of the Eugenic Protection Law by the Maternal Health Protection Law, making abortion illegal except in case the fetus had significant defects or in case of danger to the mother's health || No discernible effect, but probably because the law itself didn't change reality on the ground. || 1.507, 1.426, '''1.43''', 1.392, 1.388 |
| |- | | |- |
| |2008||8.66||0.02||1.36||0.029||1.326||0.027 | | | 1999 || [[family policy]] || pronatalist || government passed a New Angel Plan building on the earlier Angel Plan, to build more day-care centers and after-school support. || || 1.392, 1.388, '''1.347''', 1.318, 1.29 |
| |- | | |- |
| |2009||8.5||-0.16||1.361||0.001||1.324||-0.002 | | | 1999 || [[fertility policy]] || antinatalist || birth control pills were legalized, see [http://www.nbcnews.com/id/5726375/#.UvuvUoXl68w here] || No discernible effect || 1.392, 1.388, '''1.347''', 1.318, 1.29 |
| |- | | |- |
| !Maximum || 34.65<br>(1947) || 5.64<br>(1967) || 4.566<br>(1947) || 0.645<br>(1967) || 4.252<br>(1947) || 0.645<br>(1967)
| | | 2001 || [[family policy]] || pronatalist || Employment Insurance Law was amended, specifying that 40% salary was to be paid to regular full-time employees on childcare leave || || 1.347, 1.359, '''1.336''', 1.318, 1.29 |
| |- | | |- |
| !Minimum || 8.43<br>(2005) || -5<br>(1950) || 1.254<br>(2005) || -0.685<br>(1950) || 1.228<br>(2005) || -0.615<br>(1950)
| | | 2002 || [[family policy]] || pronatalist || "Plus One" plan announced by the government, encouraging fathers to take five-day paternity leave following childbirth || || 1.359, 1.336, '''1.318''', 1.29, 1.288 |
| |- | | |- |
| !Mean||15.366984127||-0.4217741935||1.971047619||-0.0516935484||1.9304126984||-0.0472258065
| | | 2003 || diffuse, mix of family policy and fertility policy || pronatalist || Japanese government passed "Next Generation" law and "Law for Measures to Support the Development of the Next Generation." These required any business with more than 300 workers to create a "plan" for raising the fertility level of its workers || || 1.336, 1.318, '''1.29''', 1.288, 1.254 |
| |- | | |- |
| !Median||14.25||-0.245||1.786||-0.029||1.776||-0.03
| | | 2004 || [[fertility policy]] || pronatalist || government subsidies for infertility treatments began || || 1.318, 1.29, '''1.288''', 1.254, 1.313 |
| |- | | |- |
| !Standard deviation||6.3600331291||1.2910175478||0.7350500406||0.1619209065||0.6754908761||0.1543309643
| | | 2006 || [[fertility policy]] || antinatalist || abortion was officially made legal conditional to the mother's consent || No discernible effect, but probably because the law itself didn't change reality on the ground. || 1.288, 1.254, '''1.313''', 1.331, 1.36 |
| |- | | |- |
| ! Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression)||-0.3094743664||0.0196975649||-0.0323055876||0.0031489764||-0.0303344854||0.0027210597
| | | 2014 || [[fertility policy]] || pronatalist || The government announces the goal of maintaining the population at 100 million over the next 50 years, as part of broader economic policies. The plan looks to offset the decline in population by boosting the country’s fertility rate and implementing other measures.[https://www.nippon.com/en/features/h00057/#:~:text=Depopulation%20continues%20to%20be%20a,part%20of%20broader%20economic%20policies] || No discernible effect || 1.395, 1.409, '''1.401''', 1.393, 1.386 |
| |- | | |- |
| ! Multiplier for best log-linear fit (using linear regression on the logarithm) ||0.9803430789|| ||0.985175264|| ||0.985546664||
| |
| |} | | |} |
| <section end=periodfertility-main/>
| |
|
| |
|
| ===Data on crude birth rate broken down by birth order=== | | ===Trends in period fertility=== |
|
| |
|
| {| class="sortable" border="1" | | {{#lst:period fertility in Japan|trends}} |
| !Year|| CBR|| CBR1|| CBR2|| CBR3|| CBR4|| CBR5+|| CBR1 proportion|| CBR2 proportion|| CBR3 proportion|| CBR4 proportion|| CBR5+ proportion
| |
| |-
| |
| |1947|| 34.65|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1948|| 33.95|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1949|| 33.42|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1950|| 28.42|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1951|| 25.55|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1952|| 23.6|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1953|| 21.67|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1954|| 20.27|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1955|| 19.58|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1956|| 18.63|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1957|| 17.38|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1958|| 18.18|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1959|| 17.71|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1960|| 17.33|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1961|| 16.99|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1962|| 17.14|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1963|| 17.4|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1964|| 17.81|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1965|| 18.72|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1966|| 13.85|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1967|| 19.49|| || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1968|| 18.63|| 8.6|| 7.32|| 2.15|| 0.39|| 0.17|| 0.4616210413|| 0.3929146538|| 0.1154052603|| 0.0209339775|| 0.0091250671
| |
| |-
| |
| |1969|| 18.58|| 8.41|| 7.32|| 2.31|| 0.39|| 0.16|| 0.4526372443|| 0.3939720129|| 0.1243272336|| 0.0209903122|| 0.0086114101
| |
| |-
| |
| |1970|| 18.8|| 8.55|| 7.33|| 2.39|| 0.39|| 0.15|| 0.454787234|| 0.389893617|| 0.1271276596|| 0.0207446809|| 0.0079787234
| |
| |-
| |
| |1971|| 19.21|| 8.65|| 7.5|| 2.51|| 0.4|| 0.14|| 0.4502863092|| 0.3904216554|| 0.130661114|| 0.0208224883|| 0.0072878709
| |
| |-
| |
| |1972|| 19.3|| 8.86|| 7.35|| 2.54|| 0.4|| 0.14|| 0.4590673575|| 0.3808290155|| 0.1316062176|| 0.0207253886|| 0.007253886
| |
| |-
| |
| |1973|| 19.35|| 8.79|| 7.36|| 2.62|| 0.42|| 0.15|| 0.4542635659|| 0.3803617571|| 0.1354005168|| 0.0217054264|| 0.007751938
| |
| |-
| |
| |1974|| 18.52|| 8.45|| 7.16|| 2.41|| 0.38|| 0.13|| 0.4562634989|| 0.3866090713|| 0.1301295896|| 0.0205183585|| 0.0070194384
| |
| |-
| |
| |1975|| 17.14|| 7.77|| 6.92|| 2.02|| 0.31|| 0.12|| 0.4533255543|| 0.4037339557|| 0.1178529755|| 0.0180863477|| 0.0070011669
| |
| |-
| |
| |1976|| 16.34|| 7.17|| 6.8|| 1.97|| 0.29|| 0.11|| 0.4388004896|| 0.4161566707|| 0.1205630355|| 0.017747858|| 0.0067319461
| |
| |-
| |
| |1977|| 15.5|| 6.59|| 6.56|| 1.98|| 0.28|| 0.1|| 0.4251612903|| 0.4232258065|| 0.1277419355|| 0.0180645161|| 0.0064516129
| |
| |-
| |
| |1978|| 14.95|| 6.22|| 6.35|| 2.02|| 0.27|| 0.09|| 0.4160535117|| 0.4247491639|| 0.1351170569|| 0.0180602007|| 0.0060200669
| |
| |-
| |
| |1979|| 14.25|| 5.94|| 5.95|| 2.02|| 0.26|| 0.08|| 0.4168421053|| 0.4175438596|| 0.141754386|| 0.018245614|| 0.0056140351
| |
| |-
| |
| |1980|| 13.57|| 5.75|| 5.53|| 1.96|| 0.26|| 0.08|| 0.4237288136|| 0.4075165807|| 0.1444362564|| 0.0191599116|| 0.0058953574
| |
| |-
| |
| |1981|| 13.07|| 5.61|| 5.22|| 1.91|| 0.26|| 0.08|| 0.4292272379|| 0.3993879112|| 0.1461361897|| 0.0198928845|| 0.0061208875
| |
| |-
| |
| |1982|| 12.86|| 5.51|| 5.1|| 1.91|| 0.27|| 0.08|| 0.4284603421|| 0.3965785381|| 0.1485225505|| 0.0209953344|| 0.0062208398
| |
| |-
| |
| |1983|| 12.72|| 5.47|| 4.97|| 1.92|| 0.27|| 0.08|| 0.4300314465|| 0.3907232704|| 0.1509433962|| 0.0212264151|| 0.0062893082
| |
| |-
| |
| |1984|| 12.48|| 5.31|| 4.87|| 1.93|| 0.28|| 0.08|| 0.4254807692|| 0.390224359|| 0.1546474359|| 0.0224358974|| 0.0064102564
| |
| |-
| |
| |1985|| 11.92|| 5.01|| 4.69|| 1.88|| 0.27|| 0.07|| 0.4203020134|| 0.3934563758|| 0.1577181208|| 0.0226510067|| 0.0058724832
| |
| |-
| |
| |1986|| 11.45|| 4.85|| 4.47|| 1.8|| 0.27|| 0.07|| 0.423580786|| 0.3903930131|| 0.1572052402|| 0.023580786|| 0.0061135371
| |
| |-
| |
| |1987|| 11.1|| 4.7|| 4.32|| 1.76|| 0.26|| 0.07|| 0.4234234234|| 0.3891891892|| 0.1585585586|| 0.0234234234|| 0.0063063063
| |
| |-
| |
| |1988|| 10.79|| 4.55|| 4.18|| 1.73|| 0.26|| 0.06|| 0.421686747|| 0.3873957368|| 0.1603336423|| 0.0240963855|| 0.0055607044
| |
| |-
| |
| |1989|| 10.2|| 4.38|| 3.89|| 1.63|| 0.25|| 0.06|| 0.4294117647|| 0.381372549|| 0.1598039216|| 0.0245098039|| 0.0058823529
| |
| |-
| |
| |1990|| 9.96|| 4.34|| 3.75|| 1.57|| 0.25|| 0.06|| 0.4357429719|| 0.3765060241|| 0.1576305221|| 0.0251004016|| 0.0060240964
| |
| |-
| |
| |1991|| 9.95|| 4.49|| 3.66|| 1.5|| 0.24|| 0.06|| 0.4512562814|| 0.367839196|| 0.1507537688|| 0.024120603|| 0.0060301508
| |
| |-
| |
| |1992|| 9.8|| 4.51|| 3.58|| 1.42|| 0.23|| 0.06|| 0.4602040816|| 0.3653061224|| 0.1448979592|| 0.0234693878|| 0.006122449
| |
| |-
| |
| |1993|| 9.61|| 4.51|| 3.49|| 1.34|| 0.22|| 0.05|| 0.4693028096|| 0.3631633715|| 0.1394380853|| 0.02289282|| 0.0052029136
| |
| |-
| |
| |1994|| 9.98|| 4.75|| 3.6|| 1.34|| 0.23|| 0.06|| 0.4759519038|| 0.3607214429|| 0.1342685371|| 0.0230460922|| 0.006012024
| |
| |-
| |
| |1995|| 9.55|| 4.56|| 3.45|| 1.26|| 0.22|| 0.06|| 0.477486911|| 0.3612565445|| 0.1319371728|| 0.0230366492|| 0.0062827225
| |
| |-
| |
| |1996|| 9.68|| 4.61|| 3.57|| 1.24|| 0.21|| 0.06|| 0.4762396694|| 0.3688016529|| 0.1280991736|| 0.0216942149|| 0.0061983471
| |
| |-
| |
| |1997|| 9.54|| 4.58|| 3.5|| 1.2|| 0.21|| 0.05|| 0.4800838574|| 0.3668763103|| 0.1257861635|| 0.0220125786|| 0.0052410901
| |
| |-
| |
| |1998|| 9.61|| 4.66|| 3.51|| 1.18|| 0.2|| 0.05|| 0.4849115505|| 0.3652445369|| 0.1227887617|| 0.0208116545|| 0.0052029136
| |
| |-
| |
| |1999|| 9.39|| 4.62|| 3.41|| 1.12|| 0.19|| 0.05|| 0.4920127796|| 0.3631522897|| 0.1192758253|| 0.0202342918|| 0.0053248136
| |
| |-
| |
| |2000|| 9.49|| 4.65|| 3.47|| 1.12|| 0.2|| 0.05|| 0.4899894626|| 0.3656480506|| 0.1180189673|| 0.0210748156|| 0.0052687039
| |
| |-
| |
| |2001|| 9.31|| 4.56|| 3.41|| 1.1|| 0.19|| 0.05|| 0.4897959184|| 0.3662728249|| 0.1181525242|| 0.0204081633|| 0.0053705693
| |
| |-
| |
| |2002|| 9.16|| 4.54|| 3.34|| 1.04|| 0.18|| 0.05|| 0.4956331878|| 0.364628821|| 0.1135371179|| 0.019650655|| 0.0054585153
| |
| |-
| |
| |2003|| 8.91|| 4.34|| 3.32|| 1.02|| 0.18|| 0.05|| 0.4870931538|| 0.3726150393|| 0.1144781145|| 0.0202020202|| 0.0056116723
| |
| |-
| |
| |2004|| 8.81|| 4.26|| 3.31|| 1|| 0.18|| 0.05|| 0.4835414302|| 0.3757094211|| 0.113507378|| 0.020431328|| 0.0056753689
| |
| |-
| |
| |2005|| 8.43|| 4.07|| 3.17|| 0.97|| 0.17|| 0.05|| 0.4827995255|| 0.3760379597|| 0.1150652432|| 0.0201660735|| 0.0059311981
| |
| |-
| |
| |2006|| 8.67|| 4.16|| 3.24|| 1.03|| 0.18|| 0.05|| 0.4798154556|| 0.3737024221|| 0.1188004614|| 0.0207612457|| 0.0057670127
| |
| |-
| |
| |2007|| 8.64|| 4.12|| 3.2|| 1.07|| 0.19|| 0.06|| 0.4768518519|| 0.3703703704|| 0.1238425926|| 0.0219907407|| 0.0069444444
| |
| |-
| |
| |2008|| 8.66|| 4.11|| 3.19|| 1.09|| 0.2|| 0.06|| 0.474595843|| 0.3683602771|| 0.1258660508|| 0.0230946882|| 0.0069284065
| |
| |-
| |
| |2009|| 8.5|| 4.07|| 3.1|| 1.07|| 0.2|| 0.06|| 0.4788235294|| 0.3647058824|| 0.1258823529|| 0.0235294118|| 0.0070588235
| |
| |-
| |
| !Mean (1968-2009)|| 12.2947619048|| 5.5630952381|| 4.7483333333|| 1.644047619|| 0.2595238095|| 0.08|| 0.4556327314|| 0.3829420791|| 0.1337623587|| 0.0213415441|| 0.0063137007
| |
| |-
| |
| !Median (1968-2009)|| 10.495|| 4.68|| 4.035|| 1.68|| 0.255|| 0.06|| 0.4555253665|| 0.3805953863|| 0.1303953518|| 0.0209928233|| 0.0061172123
| |
| |-
| |
| !Standard deviation (1968-2009)|| 3.7176403729|| 1.6032626614|| 1.5746713427|| 0.5009116544|| 0.0712245635|| 0.0354758592|| 0.0254953152|| 0.0177110054|| 0.0150539022|| 0.0018880947|| 0.0008986095
| |
| |-
| |
| !Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1968-2009)|| -0.2828166275|| -0.114746779|| -0.1210153148|| -0.0393963212|| -0.0053075115|| -0.0025070902|| 0.0013334093|| -0.0010227596|| -0.0003296164|| 4.68163588958831E-005|| -4.3616249428809E-005
| |
| |-
| |
| !Multiplier for best linear fit (using log-linear regression) (1968-2009)|| 0.9781332364|| 0.9809732791|| 0.9755395455|| 0.9756427142|| 0.9803586992|| 0.9718051041|| 1.0029035336|| 0.9973483256|| 0.9974538007|| 1.0022752143|| 0.9935303984
| |
| |}
| |
|
| |
|
| ===Data on total fertility rate broken down by birth order=== | | ===Trends in completed fertility=== |
|
| |
|
| The columns TFR1, TFR2, TFR3, and TFR4 describe the total fertility rates at the respective birth orders 1, 2, 3, and 4. The column TFR5+ describes the total fertility rate at higher birth orders (combined). The corresponding "proportion" columns divide the corresponding birth order TFR column by the TFR column (the total across all birth orders). For each row, the proportion columns add up to 1.
| | {{#lst:completed fertility in Japan|trends}} |
|
| |
|
| {| class="sortable" border="1"
| | ==Period fertility== |
| ! Year || TFR || TFR1 || TFR2 || TFR3 || TFR4 || TFR5+ || TFR1 proportion || TFR2 proportion || TFR3 proportion || TFR4 proportion || TFR5+ proportion
| |
| |-
| |
| |1947 || 4.566 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1948 || 4.444 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1949 || 4.357 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1950 || 3.672 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1951 || 3.281 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1952 || 2.995 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1953 || 2.713 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1954 || 2.502 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1955 || 2.383 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1956 || 2.236 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1957 || 2.058 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1958 || 2.129 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1959 || 2.061 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1960 || 2.008 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1961 || 1.963 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1962 || 1.974 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1963 || 2.001 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1964 || 2.045 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1965 || 2.145 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1966 || 1.579 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1967 || 2.224 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1968 || 2.127 || 0.96 || 0.843 || 0.255 || 0.047 || 0.021 || 0.4513399154 || 0.3963328632 || 0.119887165 || 0.02209685 || 0.0098730606
| |
| |-
| |
| |1969 || 2.119 || 0.936 || 0.842 || 0.274 || 0.048 || 0.02 || 0.4417177914 || 0.397357244 || 0.1293062765 || 0.0226521944 || 0.0094384143
| |
| |-
| |
| |1970 || 2.129 || 0.938 || 0.842 || 0.283 || 0.047 || 0.019 || 0.4405824331 || 0.3954908408 || 0.1329262565 || 0.0220760921 || 0.0089243776
| |
| |-
| |
| |1971 || 2.153 || 0.929 || 0.86 || 0.297 || 0.048 || 0.018 || 0.4314909429 || 0.3994426382 || 0.1379470506 || 0.0222944728 || 0.0083604273
| |
| |-
| |
| |1972 || 2.138 || 0.934 || 0.837 || 0.3 || 0.049 || 0.018 || 0.4368568756 || 0.3914873714 || 0.1403180543 || 0.0229186155 || 0.0084190833
| |
| |-
| |
| |1973 || 2.135 || 0.925 || 0.829 || 0.31 || 0.051 || 0.019 || 0.4332552693 || 0.3882903981 || 0.1451990632 || 0.0238875878 || 0.0088992974
| |
| |-
| |
| |1974 || 2.04 || 0.902 || 0.793 || 0.283 || 0.046 || 0.016 || 0.4421568627 || 0.3887254902 || 0.1387254902 || 0.0225490196 || 0.0078431373
| |
| |-
| |
| |1975 || 1.9 || 0.855 || 0.758 || 0.235 || 0.037 || 0.015 || 0.45 || 0.3989473684 || 0.1236842105 || 0.0194736842 || 0.0078947368
| |
| |-
| |
| |1976 || 1.84 || 0.821 || 0.746 || 0.226 || 0.034 || 0.013 || 0.4461956522 || 0.4054347826 || 0.122826087 || 0.0184782609 || 0.0070652174
| |
| |-
| |
| |1977 || 1.786 || 0.786 || 0.731 || 0.224 || 0.033 || 0.012 || 0.4400895857 || 0.4092945129 || 0.1254199328 || 0.0184770437 || 0.006718925
| |
| |-
| |
| |1978 || 1.774 || 0.776 || 0.727 || 0.228 || 0.031 || 0.011 || 0.4374295378 || 0.4098083427 || 0.1285231116 || 0.0174746336 || 0.0062006764
| |
| |-
| |
| |1979 || 1.751 || 0.773 || 0.707 || 0.23 || 0.031 || 0.01 || 0.4414620217 || 0.4037692747 || 0.1313535123 || 0.017704169 || 0.0057110223
| |
| |-
| |
| |1980 || 1.731 || 0.779 || 0.685 || 0.228 || 0.03 || 0.01 || 0.450028885 || 0.3957250144 || 0.1317157712 || 0.0173310225 || 0.0057770075
| |
| |-
| |
| |1981 || 1.726 || 0.786 || 0.673 || 0.228 || 0.031 || 0.009 || 0.4553881808 || 0.3899188876 || 0.1320973349 || 0.0179606025 || 0.0052143685
| |
| |-
| |
| |1982 || 1.755 || 0.793 || 0.684 || 0.237 || 0.032 || 0.009 || 0.4518518519 || 0.3897435897 || 0.135042735 || 0.0182336182 || 0.0051282051
| |
| |-
| |
| |1983 || 1.788 || 0.805 || 0.692 || 0.247 || 0.034 || 0.009 || 0.4502237136 || 0.3870246085 || 0.1381431767 || 0.01901566 || 0.005033557
| |
| |-
| |
| |1984 || 1.8 || 0.796 || 0.701 || 0.258 || 0.036 || 0.01 || 0.4422222222 || 0.3894444444 || 0.1433333333 || 0.02 || 0.0055555556
| |
| |-
| |
| |1985 || 1.757 || 0.76 || 0.692 || 0.261 || 0.035 || 0.009 || 0.4325554923 || 0.3938531588 || 0.1485486625 || 0.0199203187 || 0.0051223677
| |
| |-
| |
| |1986 || 1.719 || 0.742 || 0.673 || 0.259 || 0.036 || 0.009 || 0.431646306 || 0.3915066899 || 0.1506689936 || 0.0209424084 || 0.0052356021
| |
| |-
| |
| |1987 || 1.689 || 0.723 || 0.661 || 0.261 || 0.036 || 0.009 || 0.4280639432 || 0.3913558319 || 0.1545293073 || 0.0213143872 || 0.0053285968
| |
| |-
| |
| |1988 || 1.657 || 0.702 || 0.647 || 0.263 || 0.037 || 0.009 || 0.4236572118 || 0.3904646952 || 0.1587205794 || 0.0223295112 || 0.0054315027
| |
| |-
| |
| |1989 || 1.576 || 0.674 || 0.606 || 0.251 || 0.037 || 0.008 || 0.4276649746 || 0.3845177665 || 0.1592639594 || 0.0234771574 || 0.0050761421
| |
| |-
| |
| |1990 || 1.543 || 0.664 || 0.587 || 0.246 || 0.038 || 0.008 || 0.430330525 || 0.3804277382 || 0.1594296824 || 0.0246273493 || 0.0051847051
| |
| |-
| |
| |1991 || 1.537 || 0.682 || 0.573 || 0.237 || 0.037 || 0.008 || 0.4437215355 || 0.372804164 || 0.1541964867 || 0.0240728692 || 0.0052049447
| |
| |-
| |
| |1992 || 1.506 || 0.678 || 0.558 || 0.225 || 0.036 || 0.008 || 0.4501992032 || 0.3705179283 || 0.1494023904 || 0.0239043825 || 0.005312085
| |
| |-
| |
| |1993 || 1.464 || 0.671 || 0.539 || 0.212 || 0.035 || 0.008 || 0.4583333333 || 0.3681693989 || 0.1448087432 || 0.0239071038 || 0.0054644809
| |
| |-
| |
| |1994 || 1.507 || 0.698 || 0.552 || 0.212 || 0.036 || 0.009 || 0.4631718646 || 0.3662906437 || 0.1406768414 || 0.0238885202 || 0.0059721301
| |
| |-
| |
| |1995 || 1.426 || 0.662 || 0.522 || 0.197 || 0.035 || 0.009 || 0.4642356241 || 0.366058906 || 0.1381486676 || 0.0245441795 || 0.0063113604
| |
| |-
| |
| |1996 || 1.43 || 0.661 || 0.534 || 0.192 || 0.034 || 0.009 || 0.4622377622 || 0.3734265734 || 0.1342657343 || 0.0237762238 || 0.0062937063
| |
| |-
| |
| |1997 || 1.392 || 0.651 || 0.516 || 0.184 || 0.032 || 0.009 || 0.4676724138 || 0.3706896552 || 0.132183908 || 0.0229885057 || 0.0064655172
| |
| |-
| |
| |1998 || 1.388 || 0.659 || 0.511 || 0.179 || 0.031 || 0.008 || 0.4747838617 || 0.3681556196 || 0.128962536 || 0.0223342939 || 0.0057636888
| |
| |-
| |
| |1999 || 1.347 || 0.652 || 0.491 || 0.167 || 0.029 || 0.008 || 0.4840386043 || 0.3645137342 || 0.1239792131 || 0.0215293244 || 0.005939124
| |
| |-
| |
| |2000 || 1.359 || 0.66 || 0.496 || 0.165 || 0.03 || 0.008 || 0.4856512141 || 0.3649742458 || 0.1214128035 || 0.0220750552 || 0.0058866814
| |
| |-
| |
| |2001 || 1.336 || 0.655 || 0.485 || 0.159 || 0.029 || 0.008 || 0.4902694611 || 0.3630239521 || 0.119011976 || 0.0217065868 || 0.005988024
| |
| |-
| |
| |2002 || 1.318 || 0.658 || 0.475 || 0.15 || 0.027 || 0.008 || 0.4992412747 || 0.3603945372 || 0.1138088012 || 0.0204855842 || 0.0060698027
| |
| |-
| |
| |2003 || 1.29 || 0.637 || 0.474 || 0.145 || 0.026 || 0.008 || 0.4937984496 || 0.3674418605 || 0.1124031008 || 0.0201550388 || 0.0062015504
| |
| |-
| |
| |2004 || 1.288 || 0.636 || 0.476 || 0.142 || 0.026 || 0.008 || 0.4937888199 || 0.3695652174 || 0.1102484472 || 0.0201863354 || 0.0062111801
| |
| |-
| |
| |2005 || 1.254 || 0.62 || 0.463 || 0.139 || 0.025 || 0.007 || 0.4944178628 || 0.3692185008 || 0.1108452951 || 0.0199362041 || 0.0055821372
| |
| |-
| |
| |2006 || 1.313 || 0.649 || 0.481 || 0.149 || 0.027 || 0.008 || 0.4942878903 || 0.3663366337 || 0.1134805788 || 0.0205635948 || 0.006092917
| |
| |-
| |
| |2007 || 1.331 || 0.655 || 0.483 || 0.157 || 0.028 || 0.008 || 0.4921111946 || 0.3628850488 || 0.1179564237 || 0.0210368144 || 0.0060105184
| |
| |-
| |
| |2008 || 1.36 || 0.667 || 0.491 || 0.163 || 0.03 || 0.009 || 0.4904411765 || 0.3610294118 || 0.1198529412 || 0.0220588235 || 0.0066176471
| |
| |-
| |
| |2009 || 1.361 || 0.674 || 0.486 || 0.161 || 0.03 || 0.009 || 0.4952240999 || 0.3570903747 || 0.1182953711 || 0.0220426157 || 0.0066127847
| |
| |-
| |
| !Mean (1968-2009) || 1.639047619 || 0.7448571429 || 0.6290952381 || 0.2195 || 0.0349285714 || 0.0106666667 || 0.4574722819 || 0.3816892847 || 0.133132143 || 0.0213434932 || 0.0063675302
| |
| |-
| |
| !Median (1968-2009) || 1.6165 || 0.7 || 0.6265 || 0.228 || 0.034 || 0.009 || 0.4502114584 || 0.3857711875 || 0.1321406215 || 0.0218746013 || 0.0059992712
| |
| |-
| |
| !Standard deviation (1968-2009) || 0.2837342412 || 0.1034605077 || 0.1298717584 || 0.0486637292 || 0.0068588304 || 0.0039673464 || 0.0237216689 || 0.0153357426 || 0.0140492792 || 0.0020951576 || 0.0012821002
| |
| |-
| |
| !Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1968-2009) || -0.0222746941 || -0.007759987 || -0.0103252573 || -0.0034965562 || -0.000432785 || -0.0002570294 || 0.001556969 || -0.00111562 || -0.0004130709 || 2.9638050840737E-005 || -5.68902263624509E-005
| |
| |-
| |
| !Multiplier for best linear fit (using log-linear regression) (1968-2009) || 0.9866279019 || 0.9899364352 || 0.983742996 || 0.983361587 || 0.9881403735 || 0.9792000859 || 1.0033533749 || 0.997075994 || 0.9966894156 || 1.0015329706 || 0.9924715122
| |
| |}
| |
|
| |
|
| ===Data 1800 onward: lower quality data based on reconstruction from other data===
| | {{further|[[period fertility in Japan]]}} |
|
| |
|
| The data here are lower quality than the other data, even for recent years. They are based on various reconstructions and estimates, and are not sufficiently reliable for calculating year-on-year changes. However, broad trends may still be discerned.
| | {{#lst:period fertility in Japan|main}} |
|
| |
|
| An example to illustrate the lower quality of the Gapminder data is that the Gapminder data does not pick the sudden fertility dip in 1966, whereas the HFD data does.
| | ==Completed fertility== |
|
| |
|
| The data sets correlate highly. For the years 1947-2009, where both data sets are available, the correlation is 0.993, indicating near perfect agreement in the ''trend''. The values themselves differ only slightly, both additively and multiplicatively, as the table below shows. If we exclude the anomalous year 1966 from the assessment, the correlation rises to 0.996.
| | {{further|[[completed fertility in Japan]]}} |
|
| |
|
| {| class="sortable" border="1" | | {{#lst:completed fertility in Japan|main}} |
| !Year || Japan's TFR according to Gapminder (low quality data) || Japan's TFR according to HFD (high quality data) || Difference || Ratio
| |
| |-
| |
| |1800 || 4.08032 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1801 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1802 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1803 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1804 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1805 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1806 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1807 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1808 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1809 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1810 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1811 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1812 || 4.42864 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1813 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1814 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1815 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1816 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1817 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1818 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1819 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1820 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1821 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1822 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1823 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1824 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1825 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1826 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1827 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1828 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1829 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1830 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1831 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1832 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1833 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1834 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1835 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1836 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1837 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1838 || 4.5406 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1839 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1840 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1841 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1842 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1843 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1844 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1845 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1846 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1847 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1848 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1849 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1850 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1851 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1852 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1853 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1854 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1855 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1856 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1857 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1858 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1859 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1860 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1861 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1862 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1863 || 4.83916 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1864 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1865 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1866 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1867 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1868 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1869 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1870 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1871 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1872 || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1873 || 3.4143658113 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1874 || 3.5178314419 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1875 || 3.7395435076 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1876 || 3.754324312 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1877 || 3.6656394857 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1878 || 3.5769546594 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1879 || 3.5473930507 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1880 || 3.5917354638 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1881 || 3.7691051163 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1882 || 3.6656394857 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1883 || 3.9612555733 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1884 || 3.7986667251 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1885 || 3.9760363776 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1886 || 4.0351595951 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1887 || 4.0351595951 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1888 || 4.4342413133 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1889 || 4.537706944 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1890 || 4.1829676389 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1891 || 3.990817182 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1892 || 4.4046797046 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1893 || 4.2568716608 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1894 || 4.3455564871 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1895 || 4.3603372915 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1896 || 4.5081453352 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1897 || 4.655953379 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1898 || 4.7150765965 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1899 || 4.7298574009 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1900 || 4.6855149878 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1901 || 5.0106926841 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1902 || 4.966350271 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1903 || 4.8333230316 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1904 || 4.6116109659 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1905 || 4.5229261396 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1906 || 4.3751180958 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1907 || 5.0254734885 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1908 || 5.1289391191 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1909 || 5.1585007279 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1910 || 5.0106926841 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1911 || 5.1880623366 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1912 || 5.084596706 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1913 || 5.0698159016 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1914 || 5.1437199235 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1915 || 4.9072270534 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1916 || 4.9811310753 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1917 || 4.9515694666 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1918 || 4.8333230316 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1919 || 4.774199814 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1920 || 5.35 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1921 || 5.22 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1922 || 5.12 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1923 || 5.26 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1924 || 5.07 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1925 || 5.22 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1926 || 5.19 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1927 || 5 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1928 || 5.09 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1929 || 4.87 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1930 || 4.82 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1931 || 4.76 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1932 || 4.86 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1933 || 4.63 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1934 || 4.39 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1935 || 4.59 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1936 || 4.34 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1937 || 4.45 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1938 || 3.88 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1939 || 3.8 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1940 || 4.14 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1941 || 4.36 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1942 || 4.18 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1943 || 4.11 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1944 || 3.95 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1945 || 3.11 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1946 || 3.37 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1947 || 4.51 || 4.566 || 0.056 || 1.0124168514
| |
| |-
| |
| |1948 || 4.38 || 4.444 || 0.064 || 1.0146118721
| |
| |-
| |
| |1949 || 4.3 || 4.357 || 0.057 || 1.013255814
| |
| |-
| |
| |1950 || 3.51 || 3.672 || 0.162 || 1.0461538462
| |
| |-
| |
| |1951 || 3.367 || 3.281 || -0.086 || 0.9744579745
| |
| |-
| |
| |1952 || 3.096 || 2.995 || -0.101 || 0.967377261
| |
| |-
| |
| |1953 || 2.856 || 2.713 || -0.143 || 0.949929972
| |
| |-
| |
| |1954 || 2.647 || 2.502 || -0.145 || 0.9452210049
| |
| |-
| |
| |1955 || 2.468 || 2.383 || -0.085 || 0.9655591572
| |
| |-
| |
| |1956 || 2.32 || 2.236 || -0.084 || 0.9637931034
| |
| |-
| |
| |1957 || 2.201 || 2.058 || -0.143 || 0.935029532
| |
| |-
| |
| |1958 || 2.11 || 2.129 || 0.019 || 1.0090047393
| |
| |-
| |
| |1959 || 2.044 || 2.061 || 0.017 || 1.0083170254
| |
| |-
| |
| |1960 || 2.001 || 2.008 || 0.007 || 1.0034982509
| |
| |-
| |
| |1961 || 1.976 || 1.963 || -0.013 || 0.9934210526
| |
| |-
| |
| |1962 || 1.965 || 1.974 || 0.009 || 1.0045801527
| |
| |-
| |
| |1963 || 1.965 || 2.001 || 0.036 || 1.0183206107
| |
| |-
| |
| |1964 || 1.97 || 2.045 || 0.075 || 1.038071066
| |
| |-
| |
| |1965 || 1.98 || 2.145 || 0.165 || 1.0833333333
| |
| |-
| |
| |1966 || 1.997 || 1.579 || -0.418 || 0.790686029
| |
| |-
| |
| |1967 || 2.02 || 2.224 || 0.204 || 1.100990099
| |
| |-
| |
| |1968 || 2.048 || 2.127 || 0.079 || 1.0385742188
| |
| |-
| |
| |1969 || 2.077 || 2.119 || 0.042 || 1.0202214733
| |
| |-
| |
| |1970 || 2.101 || 2.129 || 0.028 || 1.0133269871
| |
| |-
| |
| |1971 || 2.113 || 2.153 || 0.04 || 1.0189304307
| |
| |-
| |
| |1972 || 2.109 || 2.138 || 0.029 || 1.0137505927
| |
| |-
| |
| |1973 || 2.087 || 2.135 || 0.048 || 1.0229995208
| |
| |-
| |
| |1974 || 2.048 || 2.04 || -0.008 || 0.99609375
| |
| |-
| |
| |1975 || 1.997 || 1.9 || -0.097 || 0.9514271407
| |
| |-
| |
| |1976 || 1.94 || 1.84 || -0.1 || 0.9484536082
| |
| |-
| |
| |1977 || 1.885 || 1.786 || -0.099 || 0.9474801061
| |
| |-
| |
| |1978 || 1.838 || 1.774 || -0.064 || 0.965179543
| |
| |-
| |
| |1979 || 1.802 || 1.751 || -0.051 || 0.9716981132
| |
| |-
| |
| |1980 || 1.777 || 1.731 || -0.046 || 0.9741136747
| |
| |-
| |
| |1981 || 1.761 || 1.726 || -0.035 || 0.980124929
| |
| |-
| |
| |1982 || 1.751 || 1.755 || 0.004 || 1.0022844089
| |
| |-
| |
| |1983 || 1.741 || 1.788 || 0.047 || 1.0269959793
| |
| |-
| |
| |1984 || 1.73 || 1.8 || 0.07 || 1.0404624277
| |
| |-
| |
| |1985 || 1.715 || 1.757 || 0.042 || 1.0244897959
| |
| |-
| |
| |1986 || 1.695 || 1.719 || 0.024 || 1.014159292
| |
| |-
| |
| |1987 || 1.67 || 1.689 || 0.019 || 1.0113772455
| |
| |-
| |
| |1988 || 1.641 || 1.657 || 0.016 || 1.0097501523
| |
| |-
| |
| |1989 || 1.607 || 1.576 || -0.031 || 0.9807093964
| |
| |-
| |
| |1990 || 1.571 || 1.543 || -0.028 || 0.9821769574
| |
| |-
| |
| |1991 || 1.535 || 1.537 || 0.002 || 1.0013029316
| |
| |-
| |
| |1992 || 1.499 || 1.506 || 0.007 || 1.0046697799
| |
| |-
| |
| |1993 || 1.467 || 1.464 || -0.003 || 0.9979550102
| |
| |-
| |
| |1994 || 1.438 || 1.507 || 0.069 || 1.0479833102
| |
| |-
| |
| |1995 || 1.413 || 1.426 || 0.013 || 1.0092002831
| |
| |-
| |
| |1996 || 1.392 || 1.43 || 0.038 || 1.0272988506
| |
| |-
| |
| |1997 || 1.372 || 1.392 || 0.02 || 1.0145772595
| |
| |-
| |
| |1998 || 1.354 || 1.388 || 0.034 || 1.0251107829
| |
| |-
| |
| |1999 || 1.337 || 1.347 || 0.01 || 1.0074794316
| |
| |-
| |
| |2000 || 1.322 || 1.359 || 0.037 || 1.0279878971
| |
| |-
| |
| |2001 || 1.31 || 1.336 || 0.026 || 1.0198473282
| |
| |-
| |
| |2002 || 1.303 || 1.318 || 0.015 || 1.0115118956
| |
| |-
| |
| |2003 || 1.3 || 1.29 || -0.01 || 0.9923076923
| |
| |-
| |
| |2004 || 1.301 || 1.288 || -0.013 || 0.9900076864
| |
| |-
| |
| |2005 || 1.307 || 1.254 || -0.053 || 0.9594491201
| |
| |-
| |
| |2006 || 1.317 || 1.313 || -0.004 || 0.9969627942
| |
| |-
| |
| |2007 || 1.329 || 1.331 || 0.002 || 1.0015048909
| |
| |-
| |
| |2008 || 1.343 || 1.36 || 0.017 || 1.0126582278
| |
| |-
| |
| |2009 || 1.359 || 1.361 || 0.002 || 1.0014716703
| |
| |-
| |
| |2010 || 1.374 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |2011 || 1.389 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |2012 || 1.405 || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| !Average (1947-2009) || || || -0.0033174603 || 0.9990808783
| |
| |} | |
|
| |
|
| ==Data on completed fertility== | | ==Other data on fertility== |
|
| |
|
| ===CCF and CC40, not broken down by birth order===
| | * [[Age distribution of mothers at birth in Japan]] includes data on the [[mean age at birth]], [[standard deviation in age at birth]], and [[cohort mean age at birth]]. |
| | * [[Tempo-adjusted total fertility rate in Japan]] includes data on the [[tempo-adjusted total fertility rate]]. |
|
| |
|
| {| class="sortable" border="1"
| | ==Fertility broken down further== |
| !Cohort || CCF || CCF minus previous year's CCF || CCF40 || CCF40 minus previous year's CCF40
| |
| |-
| |
| |1932 || 2.06 || || 2.047 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1933 || 2.035 || -0.025 || 2.024 || -0.023
| |
| |-
| |
| |1934 || 2.008 || -0.027 || 1.998 || -0.026
| |
| |-
| |
| |1935 || 2.045 || 0.037 || 2.035 || 0.037
| |
| |-
| |
| |1936 || 2.035 || -0.01 || 2.026 || -0.009
| |
| |-
| |
| |1937 || 2.051 || 0.016 || 2.042 || 0.016
| |
| |-
| |
| |1938 || 2.009 || -0.042 || 2.001 || -0.041
| |
| |-
| |
| |1939 || 1.985 || -0.024 || 1.976 || -0.025
| |
| |-
| |
| |1940 || 2.052 || 0.067 || 2.043 || 0.067
| |
| |-
| |
| |1941 || 2.071 || 0.019 || 2.062 || 0.019
| |
| |-
| |
| |1942 || 2.031 || -0.04 || 2.022 || -0.04
| |
| |-
| |
| |1943 || 2.053 || 0.022 || 2.044 || 0.022
| |
| |-
| |
| |1944 || 2.036 || -0.017 || 2.027 || -0.017
| |
| |-
| |
| |1945 || 1.851 || -0.185 || 1.842 || -0.185
| |
| |-
| |
| |1946 || 1.905 || 0.054 || 1.896 || 0.054
| |
| |-
| |
| |1947 || 2.021 || 0.116 || 2.01 || 0.114
| |
| |-
| |
| |1948 || 1.987 || -0.034 || 1.976 || -0.034
| |
| |-
| |
| |1949 || 1.992 || 0.005 || 1.98 || 0.004
| |
| |-
| |
| |1950 || 1.969 || -0.023 || 1.956 || -0.024
| |
| |-
| |
| |1951 || 1.962 || -0.007 || 1.949 || -0.007
| |
| |-
| |
| |1952 || 1.982 || 0.02 || 1.968 || 0.019
| |
| |-
| |
| |1953 || 1.987 || 0.005 || 1.973 || 0.005
| |
| |-
| |
| |1954 || 1.983 || -0.004 || 1.968 || -0.005
| |
| |-
| |
| |1955 || 1.977 || -0.006 || 1.961 || -0.007
| |
| |-
| |
| |1956 || 1.946 || -0.031 || 1.929 || -0.032
| |
| |-
| |
| |1957 || 1.918 || -0.028 || 1.9 || -0.029
| |
| |-
| |
| |1958 || 1.909 || -0.009 || 1.89 || -0.01
| |
| |-
| |
| |1959 || 1.87 || -0.039 || 1.85 || -0.04
| |
| |-
| |
| |1960 || unavailable || || 1.805 || -0.045
| |
| |-
| |
| |1961 || unavailable || || 1.762 || -0.043
| |
| |-
| |
| |1962 || unavailable || || 1.719 || -0.043
| |
| |-
| |
| |1963 || unavailable || || 1.672 || -0.047
| |
| |-
| |
| |1964 || unavailable || || 1.66 || -0.012
| |
| |-
| |
| |1965 || unavailable || || 1.595 || -0.065
| |
| |-
| |
| |1966 || unavailable || || 1.493 || -0.102
| |
| |-
| |
| |1967 || unavailable || || 1.506 || 0.013
| |
| |-
| |
| |1968 || unavailable || || 1.497 || -0.009
| |
| |-
| |
| |1969 || unavailable || || 1.444 || -0.053
| |
| |-
| |
| !Mean (1932-1959) || 1.9903571429 || -0.007037037 || 1.9783928571 || -0.0072962963
| |
| |-
| |
| !Median (1932-1959) || 1.9895 || -0.009 || 1.978 || -0.009
| |
| |-
| |
| !Standard deviation (1932-1959) || 0.0582747098 || 0.0509467909 || 0.0602871765 || 0.0507488649
| |
| |-
| |
| !Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1932-1959) || -0.004805145 || -0.0004334554 || -0.0051409414 || -0.000510989
| |
| |-
| |
| ! <math>R^2</math> -- goodness of linear fit (square of the correlation) as a function of time || 0.4600738487 || 0.0045603249 || 0.4920510998 || 0.0063872072
| |
| |-
| |
| !Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1932-1959) || 0.997579501 || || 0.9973921665 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Mean (1960-1969) || || || 1.6153 || -0.0406
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Median (1960-1969) || || || 1.6275 || -0.044
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Standard deviation (1960-1969) || || || 0.1265473561 || 0.0321116109
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1960-1969) || || || -0.0410363636 || 0.0013818182
| |
| |-
| |
| !<math>R^2</math> -- goodness of linear fit (square of the correlation) as a function of time || || || 0.9639245164 ||0.01697419
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1960-1969) || || || 0.9749241926 ||
| |
| |}
| |
|
| |
|
| ===Completed cohort fertilities, by birth order where available===
| | * [[Fertility and education in Japan]] |
| | * [[Fertility by region in Japan]] |
| | * [[Fertility by ethnicity in Japan]] |
|
| |
|
| {| class="sortable" border="1"
| | ==Other social and demographic indicators related to fertility== |
| !Cohort || CCF || CCF1 || CCF2 || CCF3 || CCF4 || CCF5+ || CCF1 proportion || CCF2 proportion || CCF3 proportion || CCF4 proportion || CCF5+ proportion
| |
| |-
| |
| |1932 || 2.06 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1933 || 2.035 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1934 || 2.008 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1935 || 2.045 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1936 || 2.035 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1937 || 2.051 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1938 || 2.009 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1939 || 1.985 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1940 || 2.052 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1941 || 2.071 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1942 || 2.031 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1943 || 2.053 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1944 || 2.036 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1945 || 1.851 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1946 || 1.905 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1947 || 2.021 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1948 || 1.987 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1949 || 1.992 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1950 || 1.969 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1951 || 1.962 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1952 || 1.982 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1953 || 1.987 || 0.887 || 0.769 || 0.282 || 0.04 || 0.01 || 0.4464016105 || 0.3870156014 || 0.1419224962 || 0.0201308505 || 0.0050327126
| |
| |-
| |
| |1954 || 1.983 || 0.882 || 0.765 || 0.286 || 0.041 || 0.01 || 0.4447806354 || 0.3857791225 || 0.1442259203 || 0.0206757438 || 0.0050428643
| |
| |-
| |
| |1955 || 1.977 || 0.879 || 0.761 || 0.286 || 0.042 || 0.009 || 0.4446130501 || 0.3849266566 || 0.1446636318 || 0.0212443096 || 0.004552352
| |
| |-
| |
| |1956 || 1.946 || 0.867 || 0.746 || 0.283 || 0.041 || 0.009 || 0.4455292909 || 0.3833504625 || 0.1454265159 || 0.0210688592 || 0.0046248715
| |
| |-
| |
| |1957 || 1.918 || 0.858 || 0.733 || 0.277 || 0.041 || 0.009 || 0.4473409802 || 0.382168926 || 0.1444212722 || 0.0213764338 || 0.0046923879
| |
| |-
| |
| |1958 || 1.909 || 0.858 || 0.727 || 0.274 || 0.04 || 0.009 || 0.4494499738 || 0.3808276585 || 0.1435306443 || 0.0209533787 || 0.0047145102
| |
| |-
| |
| |1959 || 1.87 || 0.846 || 0.71 || 0.265 || 0.039 || 0.009 || 0.4524064171 || 0.3796791444 || 0.1417112299 || 0.020855615 || 0.0048128342
| |
| |-
| |
| !Mean (1953-1959) || 1.9414285714 || 0.8681428571 || 0.7444285714 || 0.279 || 0.0405714286 || 0.0092857143 || 0.4472174226 || 0.3833925103 || 0.1437002444 || 0.0209007415 || 0.0047817904
| |
| |-
| |
| !Median (1953-1959) || 1.946 || 0.867 || 0.746 || 0.282 || 0.041 || 0.009 || 0.4464016105 || 0.3833504625 || 0.1442259203 || 0.0209533787 || 0.0047145102
| |
| |-
| |
| !Standard deviation (1953-1959) || 0.0443353025 || 0.0150712593 || 0.022074549 || 0.0076157731 || 0.0009759001 || 0.00048795 || 0.0028331738 || 0.0026783947 || 0.0014053277 || 0.0004124619 || 0.0001922976
| |
| |-
| |
| !Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1953-1959) || -0.0199285714 || -0.0068571429 || -0.0100357143 || -0.003 || -0.0002142857 || -0.0001785714 || 0.0010743224 || -0.0012382154 || -8.09539448686275E-005 || 0.0001022031 || -0.000042011
| |
| |-
| |
| !Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1953-1959) || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583
| |
| |}
| |
| | |
| | |
| ===CCF40, by birth order where available=== | |
| | |
| {| class="sortable" border="1"
| |
| ! Cohort || CCF40 || CCF40_1 || CCF40_2 || CCF40_3 || CCF40_4 || CCF40_5+ || CCF40_1 proportion || CCF40_2 proportion || CCF40_3 proportion || CCF40_4 proportion || CCF40_5+ proportion
| |
| |-
| |
| |1932 || 2.06 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1933 || 2.035 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1934 || 2.008 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1935 || 2.045 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1936 || 2.035 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1937 || 2.051 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1938 || 2.009 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1939 || 1.985 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1940 || 2.052 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1941 || 2.071 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1942 || 2.031 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1943 || 2.053 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1944 || 2.036 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1945 || 1.851 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1946 || 1.905 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1947 || 2.021 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1948 || 1.987 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1949 || 1.992 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1950 || 1.969 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1951 || 1.962 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1952 || 1.982 || || || || || || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| |1953 || 1.987 || 0.883 || 0.765 || 0.278 || 0.039 || 0.009 || 0.4443885254 || 0.3850025164 || 0.1399094112 || 0.0196275793 || 0.0045294414
| |
| |-
| |
| |1954 || 1.983 || 0.878 || 0.76 || 0.282 || 0.039 || 0.008 || 0.4427634897 || 0.3832576904 || 0.1422087746 || 0.019667171 || 0.0040342915
| |
| |-
| |
| |1955 || 1.977 || 0.875 || 0.756 || 0.283 || 0.039 || 0.008 || 0.4425897825 || 0.3823975721 || 0.1431461811 || 0.0197268589 || 0.0040465352
| |
| |-
| |
| |1956 || 1.946 || 0.863 || 0.741 || 0.279 || 0.039 || 0.008 || 0.4434737924 || 0.3807810894 || 0.1433710175 || 0.02004111 || 0.0041109969
| |
| |-
| |
| |1957 || 1.918 || 0.853 || 0.728 || 0.273 || 0.038 || 0.008 || 0.444734098 || 0.3795620438 || 0.1423357664 || 0.0198123045 || 0.0041710115
| |
| |-
| |
| |1958 || 1.909 || 0.853 || 0.722 || 0.269 || 0.038 || 0.008 || 0.4468308015 || 0.3782084861 || 0.140911472 || 0.0199057098 || 0.0041906757
| |
| |-
| |
| |1959 || 1.87 || 0.84 || 0.704 || 0.261 || 0.037 || 0.008 || 0.449197861 || 0.3764705882 || 0.1395721925 || 0.0197860963 || 0.0042780749
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Mean (1953-1959) || 1.9414285714 || 0.8635714286 || 0.7394285714 || 0.275 || 0.0384285714 || 0.0081428571 || 0.4448540501 || 0.3808114266 || 0.1416364022 || 0.0197952614 || 0.0041944324
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Median (1953-1959) || 1.946 || 0.863 || 0.741 || 0.278 || 0.039 || 0.008 || 0.4443885254 || 0.3807810894 || 0.1422087746 || 0.0197860963 || 0.0041710115
| |
| |-
| |
| !Standard deviation (1953-1959) || 0.0443353025 || 0.0157887844 || 0.0225230041 || 0.0078951462 || 0.0007867958 || 0.0003779645 || 0.0023947791 || 0.0029789638 || 0.0015206373 || 0.0001427225 || 0.0001704259
| |
| |-
| |
| !Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1953-1959) || -0.0199285714 || -0.0071785714 || -0.01025 || -0.0031071429 || -0.0003214286 || -0.0001071429 || 0.0008823909 || -0.0013760615 || -0.0001577384 || 3.70740809406725E-005 || -1.13162376409253E-005
| |
| |-
| |
| !Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1953-1959) || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583
| |
| |}
| |
| | |
| ==Mean age of birth by period==
| |
| | |
| ===Mean age of birth===
| |
| | |
| {| class="sortable" border="1"
| |
| ! Year || Mean age of birth (all birth orders) || MAB1 || MAB2 || MAB3 || MAB4 || MAB5+ || MAB40 || MAB40_1 || MAB40_2 || MAB40_3 || MAB40_4 || MAB40_5+
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1947 || 30.47 || || || || || || 29.59 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1948 || 30.19 || || || || || || 29.28 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1949 || 29.92 || || || || || || 29.16 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1950 || 29.62 || || || || || || 28.95 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1951 || 29.54 || || || || || || 28.94 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1952 || 29.38 || || || || || || 28.85 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1953 || 29.2 || || || || || || 28.73 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1954 || 29.03 || || || || || || 28.61 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1955 || 28.85 || || || || || || 28.47 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1956 || 28.64 || || || || || || 28.3 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1957 || 28.44 || || || || || || 28.14 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1958 || 28.22 || || || || || || 27.96 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1959 || 28.06 || || || || || || 27.83 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1960 || 27.89 || || || || || || 27.69 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1961 || 27.81 || || || || || || 27.63 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1962 || 27.71 || || || || || || 27.56 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1963 || 27.71 || || || || || || 27.58 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1964 || 27.7 || || || || || || 27.58 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1965 || 27.7 || || || || || || 27.59 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1966 || 27.66 || || || || || || 27.53 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1967 || 27.76 || || || || || || 27.67 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1968 || 27.79 || 25.9 || 28.58 || 30.72 || 32.56 || 35.8 || 27.69 || 25.84 || 28.53 || 30.62 || 32.2 || 34.38
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1969 || 27.8 || 25.87 || 28.53 || 30.74 || 32.54 || 35.69 || 27.7 || 25.81 || 28.48 || 30.64 || 32.2 || 34.3
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1970 || 27.76 || 25.81 || 28.48 || 30.77 || 32.56 || 35.51 || 27.67 || 25.76 || 28.43 || 30.67 || 32.22 || 34.19
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1971 || 27.74 || 25.75 || 28.43 || 30.73 || 32.55 || 35.36 || 27.65 || 25.7 || 28.37 || 30.63 || 32.23 || 34.09
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1972 || 27.66 || 25.67 || 28.36 || 30.69 || 32.51 || 35.38 || 27.57 || 25.61 || 28.3 || 30.59 || 32.18 || 34.16
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1973 || 27.64 || 25.63 || 28.28 || 30.65 || 32.46 || 35.16 || 27.55 || 25.58 || 28.22 || 30.55 || 32.15 || 34.08
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1974 || 27.54 || 25.62 || 28.18 || 30.59 || 32.49 || 35.3 || 27.45 || 25.57 || 28.13 || 30.49 || 32.17 || 34.1
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1975 || 27.47 || 25.68 || 28.16 || 30.51 || 32.46 || 35.26 || 27.39 || 25.63 || 28.11 || 30.4 || 32.13 || 34.11
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1976 || 27.49 || 25.76 || 28.15 || 30.43 || 32.35 || 35.29 || 27.41 || 25.71 || 28.1 || 30.33 || 32.01 || 34.08
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1977 || 27.58 || 25.88 || 28.21 || 30.39 || 32.33 || 35.29 || 27.5 || 25.83 || 28.17 || 30.29 || 32 || 34.07
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1978 || 27.65 || 25.95 || 28.28 || 30.39 || 32.36 || 35.19 || 27.57 || 25.91 || 28.23 || 30.3 || 32.01 || 34
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1979 || 27.7 || 26.01 || 28.36 || 30.41 || 32.29 || 35.33 || 27.63 || 25.97 || 28.32 || 30.33 || 31.95 || 34.08
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1980 || 27.75 || 26.07 || 28.44 || 30.51 || 32.35 || 35.21 || 27.68 || 26.03 || 28.39 || 30.43 || 32.02 || 33.96
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1981 || 27.83 || 26.16 || 28.54 || 30.62 || 32.39 || 35.16 || 27.76 || 26.12 || 28.49 || 30.54 || 32.04 || 33.93
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1982 || 27.92 || 26.24 || 28.59 || 30.73 || 32.5 || 35.17 || 27.85 || 26.19 || 28.55 || 30.64 || 32.16 || 33.96
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1983 || 28.02 || 26.3 || 28.68 || 30.86 || 32.6 || 35.12 || 27.95 || 26.26 || 28.64 || 30.78 || 32.29 || 33.92
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1984 || 28.12 || 26.37 || 28.74 || 30.94 || 32.73 || 35.08 || 28.05 || 26.33 || 28.7 || 30.85 || 32.4 || 33.96
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1985 || 28.26 || 26.5 || 28.83 || 31.02 || 32.83 || 35.09 || 28.19 || 26.46 || 28.78 || 30.93 || 32.51 || 34.02
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1986 || 28.38 || 26.64 || 28.92 || 31.11 || 32.95 || 35.05 || 28.31 || 26.6 || 28.87 || 31.03 || 32.64 || 33.97
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1987 || 28.52 || 26.78 || 29.03 || 31.23 || 32.99 || 35.24 || 28.45 || 26.74 || 28.97 || 31.14 || 32.68 || 34.2
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1988 || 28.68 || 26.9 || 29.17 || 31.35 || 33.21 || 35.26 || 28.59 || 26.85 || 29.11 || 31.25 || 32.88 || 34.2
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1989 || 28.81 || 27.03 || 29.32 || 31.5 || 33.32 || 35.29 || 28.72 || 26.97 || 29.25 || 31.39 || 32.97 || 34.28
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1990 || 28.94 || 27.15 || 29.46 || 31.62 || 33.43 || 35.33 || 28.84 || 27.09 || 29.38 || 31.51 || 33.1 || 34.35
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1991 || 29 || 27.23 || 29.58 || 31.75 || 33.53 || 35.36 || 28.9 || 27.17 || 29.5 || 31.63 || 33.16 || 34.39
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1992 || 29.09 || 27.37 || 29.67 || 31.87 || 33.68 || 35.43 || 28.99 || 27.31 || 29.59 || 31.74 || 33.29 || 34.45
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1993 || 29.19 || 27.51 || 29.79 || 32 || 33.78 || 35.54 || 29.08 || 27.44 || 29.7 || 31.85 || 33.36 || 34.55
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1994 || 29.29 || 27.64 || 29.9 || 32.09 || 33.88 || 35.64 || 29.18 || 27.57 || 29.81 || 31.93 || 33.44 || 34.6
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1995 || 29.39 || 27.75 || 30 || 32.16 || 33.96 || 35.73 || 29.26 || 27.68 || 29.9 || 31.98 || 33.48 || 34.65
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1996 || 29.5 || 27.89 || 30.14 || 32.23 || 34.01 || 35.72 || 29.37 || 27.8 || 30.04 || 32.05 || 33.5 || 34.66
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1997 || 29.57 || 27.95 || 30.26 || 32.32 || 34.05 || 35.72 || 29.43 || 27.85 || 30.15 || 32.11 || 33.53 || 34.58
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1998 || 29.63 || 27.99 || 30.38 || 32.4 || 34.12 || 35.91 || 29.47 || 27.89 || 30.27 || 32.18 || 33.54 || 34.66
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1999 || 29.65 || 28.01 || 30.49 || 32.47 || 34.18 || 35.81 || 29.48 || 27.9 || 30.36 || 32.24 || 33.58 || 34.57
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2000 || 29.68 || 28.03 || 30.54 || 32.55 || 34.29 || 35.79 || 29.5 || 27.92 || 30.4 || 32.3 || 33.65 || 34.57
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2001 || 29.68 || 28.05 || 30.54 || 32.59 || 34.33 || 35.81 || 29.49 || 27.93 || 30.39 || 32.33 || 33.68 || 34.59
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2002 || 29.71 || 28.15 || 30.59 || 32.64 || 34.35 || 35.94 || 29.51 || 28.02 || 30.43 || 32.35 || 33.65 || 34.61
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2003 || 29.83 || 28.36 || 30.61 || 32.61 || 34.34 || 35.91 || 29.61 || 28.21 || 30.44 || 32.3 || 33.61 || 34.65
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2004 || 29.93 || 28.51 || 30.69 || 32.59 || 34.26 || 35.92 || 29.7 || 28.35 || 30.5 || 32.27 || 33.53 || 34.59
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2005 || 30 || 28.63 || 30.76 || 32.53 || 34.2 || 35.86 || 29.76 || 28.45 || 30.55 || 32.19 || 33.46 || 34.48
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2006 || 30.09 || 28.72 || 30.88 || 32.55 || 34.12 || 35.77 || 29.84 || 28.53 || 30.66 || 32.19 || 33.34 || 34.39
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2007 || 30.24 || 28.87 || 31.02 || 32.59 || 34.03 || 35.62 || 29.96 || 28.66 || 30.78 || 32.22 || 33.24 || 34.25
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2008 || 30.31 || 28.95 || 31.09 || 32.58 || 33.93 || 35.55 || 30.02 || 28.73 || 30.83 || 32.21 || 33.13 || 34.18
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2009 || 30.44 || 29.13 || 31.22 || 32.64 || 33.89 || 35.33 || 30.13 || 28.89 || 30.93 || 32.25 || 33.13 || 33.98
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Average (1968-2009) || 28.7445238095 || 27.0573809524 || 29.4254761905 || 31.515952381 || 33.2783333333 || 35.4742857143 || 28.6154761905 || 26.9728571429 || 29.3273809524 || 31.3488095238 || 32.82 || 34.2807142857
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Median (1968-2009) || 28.745 || 26.965 || 29.245 || 31.425 || 33.265 || 35.37 || 28.655 || 26.91 || 29.18 || 31.32 || 32.925 || 34.225
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Standard deviation (1968-2009) || 0.9693427554 || 1.1172135624 || 1.0141900586 || 0.8534751329 || 0.7638890121 || 0.2786390519 || 0.9102082377 || 1.0695572043 || 0.9542512312 || 0.7685564625 || 0.628086525 || 0.2520490937
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) || 0.0766850336 || 0.0893955109 || 0.079628069 || 0.0656907868 || 0.0573608298 || 0.0126505145 || 0.072007941 || 0.085704562 || 0.0749380115 || 0.0586330119 || 0.0451438295 || 0.0116351997
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Multiplier for best logarithm fit (using linear fit on logarithm) || 1.0026655941 || 1.003298838 || 1.002699542 || 1.0020836461 || 1.0017242967 || 1.000356136 || 1.002516574 || 1.0031751711 || 1.0025509791 || 1.0018713788 || 1.0013775446 || 1.000338998
| |
| |-
| |
| ! R^2 for linear regression || 0.9418960745 || 0.963597186 || 0.9277483064 || 0.8915869093 || 0.8486074179 || 0.3102193711 || 0.9419237822 || 0.9663542144 || 0.9281440216 || 0.8759298983 || 0.7774891586 || 0.3207110369
| |
| |}
| |
|
| |
|
| ===Standard deviation in age of birth=== | | ===Social structures and policies=== |
|
| |
|
| {| class="sortable" border="1"
| | * [[Family structure in Japan]] |
| ! Year || sdMAB || sdMAB1 || sdMAB2 || sdMAB3 || sdMAB4 || sdMAB5+ || sdMAB40 || sdMAB40_1 || sdMAB40_2 || sdMAB40_3 || sdMAB40_4 || sdMAB40_5+
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1947 || 6.03 || || || || || || 5.22 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1948 || 6.14 || || || || || || 5.33 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1949 || 5.91 || || || || || || 5.2 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1950 || 5.77 || || || || || || 5.12 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1951 || 5.63 || || || || || || 5.03 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1952 || 5.49 || || || || || || 4.92 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1953 || 5.36 || || || || || || 4.84 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1954 || 5.25 || || || || || || 4.76 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1955 || 5.12 || || || || || || 4.67 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1956 || 5.01 || || || || || || 4.58 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1957 || 4.85 || || || || || || 4.45 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1958 || 4.71 || || || || || || 4.34 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1959 || 4.59 || || || || || || 4.24 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1960 || 4.42 || || || || || || 4.11 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1961 || 4.29 || || || || || || 4.02 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1962 || 4.19 || || || || || || 3.95 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1963 || 4.14 || || || || || || 3.92 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1964 || 4.1 || || || || || || 3.9 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1965 || 4.06 || || || || || || 3.88 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1966 || 4.22 || || || || || || 4.01 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1967 || 3.99 || || || || || || 3.84 || || || || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1968 || 4.03 || 3.52 || 3.43 || 3.45 || 3.84 || 4.41 || 3.87 || 3.4 || 3.33 || 3.3 || 3.42 || 3.4
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1969 || 4.03 || 3.52 || 3.44 || 3.45 || 3.8 || 4.42 || 3.87 || 3.39 || 3.34 || 3.31 || 3.41 || 3.39
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1970 || 4.03 || 3.51 || 3.43 || 3.45 || 3.82 || 4.4 || 3.88 || 3.38 || 3.32 || 3.3 || 3.43 || 3.42
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1971 || 4.02 || 3.51 || 3.4 || 3.43 || 3.79 || 4.39 || 3.87 || 3.38 || 3.29 || 3.28 || 3.42 || 3.43
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1972 || 4.03 || 3.49 || 3.39 || 3.42 || 3.81 || 4.34 || 3.87 || 3.36 || 3.29 || 3.28 || 3.43 || 3.43
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1973 || 4.03 || 3.48 || 3.41 || 3.42 || 3.79 || 4.25 || 3.88 || 3.35 || 3.31 || 3.28 || 3.43 || 3.41
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1974 || 4 || 3.45 || 3.4 || 3.43 || 3.85 || 4.36 || 3.85 || 3.33 || 3.3 || 3.28 || 3.48 || 3.48
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1975 || 3.94 || 3.45 || 3.37 || 3.48 || 3.92 || 4.34 || 3.8 || 3.33 || 3.27 || 3.32 || 3.56 || 3.5
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1976 || 3.88 || 3.43 || 3.32 || 3.45 || 3.96 || 4.39 || 3.74 || 3.32 || 3.23 || 3.3 || 3.57 || 3.54
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1977 || 3.84 || 3.43 || 3.3 || 3.43 || 3.92 || 4.41 || 3.7 || 3.32 || 3.21 || 3.27 || 3.54 || 3.53
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1978 || 3.81 || 3.42 || 3.27 || 3.36 || 3.94 || 4.42 || 3.68 || 3.32 || 3.19 || 3.21 || 3.54 || 3.6
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1979 || 3.8 || 3.42 || 3.26 || 3.32 || 3.9 || 4.45 || 3.67 || 3.33 || 3.18 || 3.19 || 3.51 || 3.58
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1980 || 3.81 || 3.45 || 3.27 || 3.31 || 3.86 || 4.48 || 3.69 || 3.36 || 3.19 || 3.16 || 3.49 || 3.64
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1981 || 3.84 || 3.48 || 3.31 || 3.29 || 3.86 || 4.47 || 3.72 || 3.39 || 3.23 || 3.15 || 3.46 || 3.61
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1982 || 3.86 || 3.5 || 3.33 || 3.28 || 3.81 || 4.41 || 3.74 || 3.41 || 3.24 || 3.14 || 3.42 || 3.53
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1983 || 3.89 || 3.55 || 3.34 || 3.28 || 3.74 || 4.37 || 3.77 || 3.46 || 3.26 || 3.14 || 3.38 || 3.48
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1984 || 3.92 || 3.58 || 3.38 || 3.28 || 3.72 || 4.3 || 3.8 || 3.49 || 3.3 || 3.14 || 3.34 || 3.46
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1985 || 3.94 || 3.63 || 3.42 || 3.31 || 3.69 || 4.24 || 3.82 || 3.54 || 3.33 || 3.17 || 3.32 || 3.42
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1986 || 3.96 || 3.66 || 3.46 || 3.31 || 3.7 || 4.24 || 3.85 || 3.57 || 3.38 || 3.19 || 3.36 || 3.4
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1987 || 3.98 || 3.69 || 3.47 || 3.34 || 3.7 || 4.18 || 3.86 || 3.6 || 3.38 || 3.21 || 3.36 || 3.39
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1988 || 4.02 || 3.75 || 3.51 || 3.36 || 3.68 || 4.17 || 3.9 || 3.65 || 3.42 || 3.22 || 3.33 || 3.36
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1989 || 4.09 || 3.82 || 3.57 || 3.41 || 3.67 || 4.15 || 3.96 || 3.72 || 3.47 || 3.26 || 3.31 || 3.4
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1990 || 4.14 || 3.89 || 3.61 || 3.44 || 3.67 || 4.04 || 4 || 3.79 || 3.5 || 3.28 || 3.33 || 3.32
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1991 || 4.18 || 3.93 || 3.65 || 3.47 || 3.73 || 4.1 || 4.04 || 3.82 || 3.54 || 3.3 || 3.36 || 3.41
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1992 || 4.23 || 3.98 || 3.73 || 3.52 || 3.75 || 4.09 || 4.09 || 3.88 || 3.61 || 3.35 || 3.39 || 3.4
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1993 || 4.27 || 4.04 || 3.77 || 3.57 || 3.78 || 4.06 || 4.13 || 3.93 || 3.66 || 3.38 || 3.38 || 3.39
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1994 || 4.32 || 4.1 || 3.82 || 3.64 || 3.84 || 4.12 || 4.17 || 3.99 || 3.7 || 3.44 || 3.44 || 3.45
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1995 || 4.38 || 4.18 || 3.88 || 3.71 || 3.9 || 4.08 || 4.22 || 4.07 || 3.75 || 3.5 || 3.48 || 3.36
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1996 || 4.42 || 4.24 || 3.92 || 3.75 || 3.95 || 4.08 || 4.25 || 4.12 || 3.79 || 3.54 || 3.52 || 3.39
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1997 || 4.49 || 4.34 || 3.98 || 3.82 || 3.99 || 4.21 || 4.32 || 4.2 || 3.84 || 3.59 || 3.55 || 3.46
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1998 || 4.56 || 4.42 || 4.04 || 3.85 || 4.06 || 4.23 || 4.38 || 4.28 || 3.89 || 3.62 || 3.58 || 3.44
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1999 || 4.64 || 4.5 || 4.1 || 3.9 || 4.11 || 4.27 || 4.45 || 4.36 || 3.94 || 3.67 || 3.64 || 3.5
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2000 || 4.73 || 4.61 || 4.17 || 3.95 || 4.14 || 4.26 || 4.53 || 4.46 || 4.01 || 3.7 || 3.65 || 3.5
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2001 || 4.81 || 4.71 || 4.27 || 4.03 || 4.16 || 4.27 || 4.61 || 4.55 || 4.1 || 3.78 || 3.66 || 3.51
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2002 || 4.88 || 4.79 || 4.35 || 4.1 || 4.26 || 4.32 || 4.67 || 4.62 || 4.17 || 3.83 || 3.74 || 3.54
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2003 || 4.91 || 4.85 || 4.43 || 4.19 || 4.32 || 4.29 || 4.68 || 4.66 || 4.24 || 3.9 || 3.79 || 3.52
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2004 || 4.94 || 4.91 || 4.49 || 4.27 || 4.36 || 4.34 || 4.71 || 4.71 || 4.29 || 3.98 || 3.83 || 3.58
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2005 || 4.96 || 4.94 || 4.54 || 4.33 || 4.43 || 4.46 || 4.72 || 4.72 || 4.33 || 4.03 || 3.9 || 3.66
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2006 || 4.98 || 4.96 || 4.56 || 4.37 || 4.53 || 4.54 || 4.73 || 4.74 || 4.34 || 4.06 || 3.97 || 3.76
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2007 || 5.01 || 5 || 4.6 || 4.4 || 4.59 || 4.61 || 4.74 || 4.77 || 4.37 || 4.08 || 4.03 || 3.8
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2008 || 5.04 || 5.04 || 4.65 || 4.42 || 4.61 || 4.59 || 4.76 || 4.8 || 4.4 || 4.1 || 4.03 || 3.77
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2009 || 5.06 || 5.07 || 4.68 || 4.43 || 4.59 || 4.68 || 4.77 || 4.81 || 4.41 || 4.1 || 4.04 || 3.84
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Average (1968-2009) || 4.2785714286 || 4.0057142857 || 3.7552380952 || 3.6528571429 || 3.9652380952 || 4.315 || 4.1133333333 || 3.8733333333 || 3.6271428571 || 3.4602380952 || 3.5433333333 || 3.5
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Median (1968-2009) || 4.06 || 3.785 || 3.54 || 3.45 || 3.86 || 4.33 || 3.93 || 3.685 || 3.445 || 3.3 || 3.48 || 3.47
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Standard deviation (1968-2009) || 0.4227065604 || 0.5798786368 || 0.4657552906 || 0.37805204 || 0.2774556708 || 0.1566143313 || 0.3781512581 || 0.5407387299 || 0.4160574873 || 0.3143439789 || 0.209210673 || 0.124997561
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) || 0.030493477 || 0.0444469654 || 0.0345887691 || 0.0258844502 || 0.0163017584 || -5.75318045539274E-005 || 0.0276282311 || 0.0418928774 || 0.031131999 || 0.0213151284 || 0.0117591767 || 0.0046657483
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Multiplier for best logarithm fit (using linear fit on logarithm) || 1.0069625637 || 1.0108694208 || 1.0089693165 || 1.0068332117 || 1.003954279 || 0.9999561218 || 1.006588887 || 1.0106470664 || 1.0083893499 || 1.0059586687 || 1.0032032028 || 1.0012951305
| |
| |-
| |
| ! R^2 for linear regression || 0.7831995317 || 0.8841918579 || 0.8300249014 || 0.7055230676 || 0.5195390451 || 0.000020309 || 0.8033625099 || 0.9033206291 || 0.8426434174 || 0.69199366 || 0.4754694981 || 0.2096891884
| |
| |}
| |
| ==Mean age of childbearing by cohort==
| |
| | |
| {| class="sortable" border="1"
| |
| !Cohort || Mean age of childbearing (all birth orders), CMAC || CMAC1 || CMAC2 || CMAC3 || CMAC4 || CMAC5+ || CMAC40 || CMAC40_1 || CMAC40_2 || CMAC40_3 || CMAC40_4 || CMAC40_5+
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1953 || 27.92 || 26.03 || 28.57 || 31.12 || 33.08 || 34.97 || 27.82 || 25.96 || 28.49 || 30.99 || 32.64 || 33.88
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1954 || 28.07 || 26.18 || 28.7 || 31.21 || 33.22 || 35.2 || 27.96 || 26.12 || 28.62 || 31.07 || 32.77 || 34.07
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1955 || 28.22 || 26.35 || 28.84 || 31.3 || 33.34 || 35.31 || 28.1 || 26.28 || 28.76 || 31.16 || 32.88 || 34.2
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1956 || 28.35 || 26.51 || 28.97 || 31.38 || 33.43 || 35.36 || 28.23 || 26.43 || 28.88 || 31.23 || 32.95 || 34.25
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1957 || 28.47 || 26.67 || 29.09 || 31.45 || 33.5 || 35.47 || 28.35 || 26.58 || 29 || 31.29 || 33.03 || 34.34
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1958 || 28.55 || 26.78 || 29.18 || 31.5 || 33.54 || 35.53 || 28.42 || 26.69 || 29.08 || 31.34 || 33.07 || 34.39
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1959 || 28.64 || 26.89 || 29.27 || 31.55 || 33.61 || 35.55 || 28.49 || 26.79 || 29.15 || 31.38 || 33.11 || 34.42
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1960 || || || || || || || 28.59 || 26.92 || 29.27 || 31.44 || 33.16 || 34.44
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1961 || || || || || || || 28.7 || 27.06 || 29.4 || 31.49 || 33.21 || 34.53
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1962 || || || || || || || 28.8 || 27.21 || 29.52 || 31.55 || 33.22 || 34.5
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1963 || || || || || || || 28.92 || 27.37 || 29.66 || 31.64 || 33.23 || 34.49
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1964 || || || || || || || 29.05 || 27.54 || 29.82 || 31.73 || 33.27 || 34.47
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1965 || || || || || || || 29.15 || 27.68 || 29.94 || 31.77 || 33.29 || 34.47
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1966 || || || || || || || 29.25 || 27.81 || 30.06 || 31.83 || 33.28 || 34.47
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1967 || || || || || || || 29.36 || 27.94 || 30.18 || 31.93 || 33.29 || 34.45
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1968 || || || || || || || 29.45 || 28.06 || 30.3 || 32.01 || 33.36 || 34.48
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1969 || || || || || || || 29.55 || 28.17 || 30.4 || 32.09 || 33.42 || 34.52
| |
| |}
| |
| | |
| ==Tempo-adjusted total fertility rate==
| |
| | |
| The [[tempo-adjusted total fertility rate]]s have been computed using the Bongarts-Feeney formula below.
| |
|
| |
|
| {| class="sortable" border="1"
| | ===Empirical data on measures related to fertility=== |
| ! Year || AdjTFR || AdjTFR1 || AdjTFR2 || AdjTFR3 || AdjTFR4 || AdjTFR5+ || AdjTFR1 proportion || AdjTFR2 proportion || AdjTFR3 proportion || AdjTFR4 proportion || AdjTFR5+ proportion
| |
| |-
| |
| |1969 || 2.045 || 0.898 || 0.801 || 0.281 || 0.048 || 0.017 || 0.4391198044 || 0.3916870416 || 0.137408313 || 0.0234718826 || 0.0083129584
| |
| |-
| |
| |1970 || 2.033 || 0.886 || 0.801 || 0.283 || 0.048 || 0.016 || 0.435809149 || 0.3939990162 || 0.1392031481 || 0.0236104279 || 0.0078701426
| |
| |-
| |
| |1971 || 2.027 || 0.866 || 0.81 || 0.286 || 0.047 || 0.017 || 0.4272323631 || 0.3996053281 || 0.1410952146 || 0.0231869758 || 0.0083867785
| |
| |-
| |
| |1972 || 2.012 || 0.882 || 0.779 || 0.288 || 0.047 || 0.016 || 0.4383697813 || 0.3871769384 || 0.1431411531 || 0.023359841 || 0.0079522863
| |
| |-
| |
| |1973 || 2.031 || 0.904 || 0.763 || 0.295 || 0.051 || 0.018 || 0.4451009355 || 0.3756770064 || 0.145248646 || 0.0251107829 || 0.0088626292
| |
| |-
| |
| |1974 || 2 || 0.925 || 0.748 || 0.265 || 0.045 || 0.017 || 0.4625 || 0.374 || 0.1325 || 0.0225 || 0.0085
| |
| |-
| |
| |1975 || 1.93 || 0.918 || 0.746 || 0.218 || 0.034 || 0.014 || 0.4756476684 || 0.3865284974 || 0.1129533679 || 0.0176165803 || 0.007253886
| |
| |-
| |
| |1976 || 1.936 || 0.909 || 0.767 || 0.213 || 0.032 || 0.013 || 0.4695247934 || 0.396177686 || 0.1100206612 || 0.0165289256 || 0.006714876
| |
| |-
| |
| |1977 || 1.915 || 0.87 || 0.78 || 0.22 || 0.033 || 0.012 || 0.454308094 || 0.407310705 || 0.1148825065 || 0.017232376 || 0.0062663185
| |
| |-
| |
| |1978 || 1.89 || 0.831 || 0.786 || 0.23 || 0.031 || 0.012 || 0.4396825397 || 0.4158730159 || 0.1216931217 || 0.0164021164 || 0.0063492063
| |
| |-
| |
| |1979 || 1.876 || 0.82 || 0.769 || 0.245 || 0.03 || 0.01 || 0.4371002132 || 0.4099147122 || 0.1305970149 || 0.0159914712 || 0.0053304904
| |
| |-
| |
| |1980 || 1.885 || 0.84 || 0.75 || 0.254 || 0.032 || 0.009 || 0.4456233422 || 0.3978779841 || 0.1347480106 || 0.0169761273 || 0.0047745358
| |
| |-
| |
| |1981 || 1.884 || 0.857 || 0.729 || 0.256 || 0.033 || 0.009 || 0.4548832272 || 0.3869426752 || 0.135881104 || 0.0175159236 || 0.0047770701
| |
| |-
| |
| |1982 || 1.906 || 0.853 || 0.738 || 0.27 || 0.036 || 0.009 || 0.4475341028 || 0.3871983211 || 0.1416579224 || 0.018887723 || 0.0047219307
| |
| |-
| |
| |1983 || 1.937 || 0.866 || 0.748 || 0.276 || 0.038 || 0.009 || 0.4470831182 || 0.3861641714 || 0.1424883841 || 0.0196179659 || 0.0046463604
| |
| |-
| |
| |1984 || 1.97 || 0.886 || 0.755 || 0.279 || 0.04 || 0.009 || 0.4497461929 || 0.383248731 || 0.1416243655 || 0.0203045685 || 0.0045685279
| |
| |-
| |
| |1985 || 1.97 || 0.877 || 0.759 || 0.285 || 0.04 || 0.009 || 0.445177665 || 0.3852791878 || 0.1446700508 || 0.0203045685 || 0.0045685279
| |
| |-
| |
| |1986 || 1.95 || 0.864 || 0.748 || 0.29 || 0.039 || 0.01 || 0.4430769231 || 0.3835897436 || 0.1487179487 || 0.02 || 0.0051282051
| |
| |-
| |
| |1987 || 1.934 || 0.832 || 0.755 || 0.296 || 0.041 || 0.01 || 0.430196484 || 0.3903826267 || 0.1530506722 || 0.0211995863 || 0.0051706308
| |
| |-
| |
| |1988 || 1.914 || 0.8 || 0.757 || 0.304 || 0.044 || 0.009 || 0.4179728318 || 0.3955067921 || 0.1588296761 || 0.0229885057 || 0.0047021944
| |
| |-
| |
| |1989 || 1.815 || 0.768 || 0.708 || 0.29 || 0.041 || 0.009 || 0.4231404959 || 0.3900826446 || 0.1597796143 || 0.0225895317 || 0.0049586777
| |
| |-
| |
| |1990 || 1.745 || 0.737 || 0.675 || 0.281 || 0.042 || 0.009 || 0.4223495702 || 0.3868194842 || 0.1610315186 || 0.0240687679 || 0.0051575931
| |
| |-
| |
| |1991 || 1.731 || 0.766 || 0.644 || 0.271 || 0.042 || 0.009 || 0.4425187753 || 0.3720392837 || 0.1565569035 || 0.0242634315 || 0.0051993068
| |
| |-
| |
| |1992 || 1.72 || 0.79 || 0.623 || 0.256 || 0.042 || 0.009 || 0.4593023256 || 0.3622093023 || 0.1488372093 || 0.0244186047 || 0.0052325581
| |
| |-
| |
| |1993 || 1.671 || 0.777 || 0.608 || 0.238 || 0.038 || 0.009 || 0.4649910233 || 0.3638539797 || 0.1424296828 || 0.0227408737 || 0.0053859964
| |
| |-
| |
| |1994 || 1.693 || 0.794 || 0.619 || 0.23 || 0.04 || 0.01 || 0.4689899587 || 0.3656231542 || 0.1358535145 || 0.0236266982 || 0.0059066745
| |
| |-
| |
| |1995 || 1.606 || 0.754 || 0.593 || 0.212 || 0.038 || 0.009 || 0.4694894147 || 0.3692403487 || 0.1320049813 || 0.0236612702 || 0.0056039851
| |
| |-
| |
| |1996 || 1.597 || 0.732 || 0.611 || 0.21 || 0.035 || 0.009 || 0.4583594239 || 0.3825923607 || 0.131496556 || 0.0219160927 || 0.0056355667
| |
| |-
| |
| |1997 || 1.519 || 0.687 || 0.588 || 0.201 || 0.034 || 0.01 || 0.4522712311 || 0.3870967742 || 0.1323238973 || 0.0223831468 || 0.0065832785
| |
| |-
| |
| |1998 || 1.492 || 0.68 || 0.578 || 0.193 || 0.033 || 0.009 || 0.4557640751 || 0.3873994638 || 0.1293565684 || 0.0221179625 || 0.0060321716
| |
| |-
| |
| |1999 || 1.418 || 0.666 || 0.532 || 0.181 || 0.032 || 0.008 || 0.4696755994 || 0.3751763047 || 0.1276445698 || 0.0225669958 || 0.0056417489
| |
| |-
| |
| |2000 || 1.4 || 0.674 || 0.51 || 0.176 || 0.032 || 0.008 || 0.4814285714 || 0.3642857143 || 0.1257142857 || 0.0228571429 || 0.0057142857
| |
| |-
| |
| |2001 || 1.398 || 0.695 || 0.498 || 0.167 || 0.03 || 0.009 || 0.4971387697 || 0.356223176 || 0.1194563662 || 0.0214592275 || 0.0064377682
| |
| |-
| |
| |2002 || 1.457 || 0.778 || 0.492 || 0.152 || 0.027 || 0.008 || 0.533973919 || 0.3376801647 || 0.1043239533 || 0.0185312286 || 0.0054907344
| |
| |-
| |
| |2003 || 1.451 || 0.779 || 0.498 || 0.142 || 0.025 || 0.008 || 0.5368711234 || 0.3432115782 || 0.0978635424 || 0.0172294969 || 0.005513439
| |
| |-
| |
| |2004 || 1.42 || 0.738 || 0.514 || 0.136 || 0.024 || 0.007 || 0.5197183099 || 0.361971831 || 0.0957746479 || 0.0169014085 || 0.0049295775
| |
| |-
| |
| |2005 || 1.369 || 0.692 || 0.511 || 0.136 || 0.023 || 0.007 || 0.5054784514 || 0.373265157 || 0.0993425858 || 0.0168005844 || 0.0051132213
| |
| |-
| |
| |2006 || 1.476 || 0.736 || 0.555 || 0.153 || 0.024 || 0.007 || 0.4986449864 || 0.3760162602 || 0.1036585366 || 0.0162601626 || 0.0047425474
| |
| |-
| |
| |2007 || 1.474 || 0.741 || 0.541 || 0.159 || 0.025 || 0.007 || 0.5027137042 || 0.3670284939 || 0.1078697422 || 0.0169606513 || 0.0047489824
| |
| |-
| |
| |2008 || 1.512 || 0.767 || 0.543 || 0.167 || 0.028 || 0.008 || 0.5072751323 || 0.3591269841 || 0.1104497354 || 0.0185185185 || 0.0052910053
| |
| |-
| |
| !Mean || 1.750225 || 0.803375 || 0.66825 || 0.232125 || 0.0361 || 0.01035 || 0.4618946022 || 0.380377066 || 0.1313044923 || 0.0205669536 || 0.0058544169
| |
| |-
| |
| !Median || 1.8455 || 0.797 || 0.7185 || 0.2415 || 0.0355 || 0.009 || 0.4545956606 || 0.3844344657 || 0.1336240053 || 0.0213294069 || 0.0054383654
| |
| |-
| |
| !Standard deviation || 0.2292455282 || 0.0763375391 || 0.1079023181 || 0.0528773072 || 0.0074551651 || 0.0031341788 || 0.0302267785 || 0.0168703565 || 0.0179891874 || 0.0029024389 || 0.0012288164
| |
| |-
| |
| !Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) || -0.018332364 || -0.0055712008 || -0.0086386492 || -0.0034464353 || -0.0004414634 || -0.0002223265 || 0.001791493 || -0.0009922883 || -0.0006900574 || -4.10824401118291E-005 || -6.10066483665693E-005
| |
| |-
| |
| !Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) || 0.9893212128 || 0.9930591068 || 0.9867216718 || 0.9836514642 || 0.9873868089 || 0.9803553931 || 1.0037782411 || 0.9973723994 || 0.9942690518 || 0.998044716 || 0.9909374027
| |
| |}
| |
|
| |
|
| ==Fertility and mortality: the story for surviving kids==
| | * [[Demographics of Japan]] |
| | * [[Population trends in Japan]] |
| | * [[Migration in Japan]] |
| | * [[Marriage in Japan]] |
| | * [[Abortion in Japan]] |
|
| |
|
| A "surviving kids per woman" value of about 2 suggests that the population remains near-constant in the long run.
| | ==References== |
|
| |
|
| {| class="sortable" border="1" | | * {{paperlink|Japan-babybust}} |
| ! Year || TFR || Surviving kids per woman || Survival ratio (fraction of kids surviving to age 35)
| | * {{paperlink|Japan-fertility-by-education}} |
| |-
| |
| | 1800 || 4.08032 || 2.0538143745 || 0.503346398 | |
| |-
| |
| | 1801 || || 2.0684248428 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1802 || || 2.0830353106 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1803 || || 2.0976457789 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1804 || || 2.1122562471 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1805 || || 2.1268667149 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1806 || || 2.1414771832 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1807 || || 2.1560876515 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1808 || || 2.1706981193 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1809 || || 2.1853085875 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1810 || || 2.1999190558 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1811 || || 2.2145295236 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1812 || 4.42864 || 2.2291399919 || 0.503346398
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1813 || || 2.231307479 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1814 || || 2.2334749661 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1815 || || 2.2356424532 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1816 || || 2.2378099398 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1817 || || 2.2399774269 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1818 || || 2.242144914 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1819 || || 2.2443124011 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1820 || || 2.2464798882 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1821 || || 2.2486473753 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1822 || || 2.2508148619 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1823 || || 2.252982349 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1824 || || 2.2551498361 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1825 || || 2.2573173232 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1826 || || 2.2594848103 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1827 || || 2.2616522974 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1828 || || 2.2638197845 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1829 || || 2.2659872711 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1830 || || 2.2681547583 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1831 || || 2.2703222454 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1832 || || 2.2724897325 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1833 || || 2.2746572196 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1834 || || 2.2768247067 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1835 || || 2.2789921933 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1836 || || 2.2811596804 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1837 || || 2.2833271675 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1838 || 4.5406 || 2.2854946546 || 0.503346398
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1839 || || 2.2915058186 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1840 || || 2.2975169826 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1841 || || 2.3035281467 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1842 || || 2.3095393107 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1843 || || 2.3155504747 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1844 || || 2.3215616387 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1845 || || 2.3275728028 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1846 || || 2.3335839668 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1847 || || 2.3395951308 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1848 || || 2.3456062948 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1849 || || 2.3516174588 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1850 || || 2.3576286229 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1851 || || 2.3636397869 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1852 || || 2.3696509509 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1853 || || 2.3756621149 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1854 || || 2.381673279 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1855 || || 2.387684443 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1856 || || 2.393695607 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1857 || || 2.399706771 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1858 || || 2.4057179351 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1859 || || 2.4117290991 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1860 || || 2.4177402631 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1861 || || 2.4237514271 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1862 || || 2.4297625911 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1863 || 4.83916 || 2.4357737552 || 0.503346398
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1864 || || 2.3640572528 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1865 || || 2.2923407505 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1866 || || 2.2206242482 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1867 || || 2.1489077463 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1868 || || 2.1406598326 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1869 || || 2.0667520322 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1870 || || 1.9928442318 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1871 || || 1.9189364314 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1872 || || 1.8450286309 ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1873 || 3.4143658113 || 1.7711208305 || 0.5187261496
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1874 || 3.5178314419 || 1.8247911589 || 0.5187261496
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1875 || 3.7395435076 || 1.9397990052 || 0.5187261497
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1876 || 3.754324312 || 1.9474661948 || 0.5187261496
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1877 || 3.6656394857 || 1.9014630565 || 0.5187261497
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1878 || 3.5769546594 || 1.8554599176 || 0.5187261496
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1879 || 3.5473930507 || 1.8401255385 || 0.5187261497
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1880 || 3.5917354638 || 1.8631271077 || 0.5187261496
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1881 || 3.7691051163 || 1.9551333843 || 0.5187261496
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1882 || 3.6656394857 || 1.9014630565 || 0.5187261497
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1883 || 3.9612555733 || 2.054806851 || 0.5187261496
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1884 || 3.7986667251 || 1.9704677639 || 0.5187261496
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1885 || 3.9760363776 || 2.0624740411 || 0.5187261497
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1886 || 4.0351595951 || 2.0931427998 || 0.5187261496
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1887 || 4.0351595951 || 2.0931427998 || 0.5187261496
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1888 || 4.4342413133 || 2.3677171097 || 0.533962169
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1889 || 4.537706944 || 2.4229638425 || 0.5339621691
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1890 || 4.1829676389 || 2.2335464737 || 0.5339621691
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1891 || 3.990817182 || 2.1309453989 || 0.5339621691
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1892 || 4.4046797046 || 2.3519323294 || 0.5339621691
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1893 || 4.2568716608 || 2.2730084256 || 0.5339621691
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1894 || 4.3455564871 || 2.3203627676 || 0.5339621691
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1895 || 4.3603372915 || 2.3282551578 || 0.533962169
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1896 || 4.5081453352 || 2.4071790616 || 0.533962169
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1897 || 4.655953379 || 2.4861029654 || 0.5339621691
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1898 || 4.7150765965 || 2.5176725271 || 0.5339621691
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1899 || 4.7298574009 || 2.5255649173 || 0.5339621691
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1900 || 4.6855149878 || 2.5725825255 || 0.5490501113
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1901 || 5.0106926841 || 2.7511213757 || 0.5490501113
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1902 || 4.966350271 || 2.7267751689 || 0.5490501113
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1903 || 4.8333230316 || 2.6537365485 || 0.5490501113
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1904 || 4.6116109659 || 2.532005514 || 0.5490501113
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1905 || 4.5229261396 || 2.4833131004 || 0.5490501113
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1906 || 4.3751180958 || 2.4021590774 || 0.5490501113
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1907 || 5.0254734885 || 2.8343028834 || 0.5639872322
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1908 || 5.1289391191 || 2.8926561782 || 0.5639872323
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1909 || 5.1585007279 || 2.9093285483 || 0.5639872323
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1910 || 5.0106926841 || 2.8259666986 || 0.5639872323
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1911 || 5.1880623366 || 2.9260009183 || 0.5639872323
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1912 || 5.084596706 || 2.8676476235 || 0.5639872323
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1913 || 5.0698159016 || 2.9342411744 || 0.5787668096
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1914 || 5.1437199235 || 2.9770143689 || 0.5787668095
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1915 || 4.9072270534 || 2.840140145 || 0.5787668095
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1916 || 4.9811310753 || 2.8829133401 || 0.5787668095
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1917 || 4.9515694666 || 2.8658040625 || 0.5787668096
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1918 || 4.8333230316 || 2.8680317848 || 0.5933871513
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1919 || 4.774199814 || 2.8329488269 || 0.5933871512
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1920 || 5.35 || 3.1746212589 || 0.5933871512
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1921 || 5.22 || 3.0974809293 || 0.5933871512
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1922 || 5.12 || 3.1121511774 || 0.6078420268
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1923 || 5.26 || 3.1972490612 || 0.6078420268
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1924 || 5.07 || 3.1541852742 || 0.622127273
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1925 || 5.22 || 3.2475043652 || 0.622127273
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1926 || 5.19 || 3.3020899698 || 0.636240842
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1927 || 5 || 3.2508682219 || 0.6501736444
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1928 || 5.09 || 3.3093838499 || 0.6501736444
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1929 || 4.87 || 3.1663456481 || 0.6501736444
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1930 || 4.82 || 3.2001245759 || 0.6639262606
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1931 || 4.76 || 3.1602890002 || 0.6639262606
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1932 || 4.86 || 3.2266816263 || 0.6639262606
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1933 || 4.63 || 3.1367898935 || 0.6774924176
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1934 || 4.39 || 2.9741917133 || 0.6774924176
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1935 || 4.59 || 3.1096901968 || 0.6774924176
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1936 || 4.34 || 2.9983652662 || 0.6908675729
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1937 || 4.45 || 3.0743606992 || 0.6908675729
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1938 || 3.88 || 2.6805661827 || 0.6908675729
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1939 || 3.8 || 2.6252967769 || 0.6908675729
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1940 || 4.14 || 2.8601917516 || 0.6908675729
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1941 || 4.36 || 3.0121826177 || 0.6908675729
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1942 || 4.18 || 2.8878264545 || 0.6908675729
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1943 || 4.11 || 2.6722136784 || 0.6501736444
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1944 || 3.95 || 2.2277495675 || 0.5639872323
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1945 || 3.11 || 1.3201060833 || 0.4244714094
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1946 || 3.37 || 2.2374314981 || 0.6639262606
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1947 || 4.51 || 3.2913641856 || 0.7297925024
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1948 || 4.38 || 3.4620268485 || 0.7904170887
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1949 || 4.3 || 3.4479074761 || 0.8018389479
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1950 || 3.51 || 2.8536721626 || 0.8130120121
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1951 || 3.367 || 2.812553737 || 0.8353292952
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1952 || 3.096 || 2.6507399696 || 0.8561821607
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1953 || 2.856 || 2.4455213913 || 0.856274997
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1954 || 2.647 || 2.3172154258 || 0.8754119478
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1955 || 2.468 || 2.1825747364 || 0.8843495691
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1956 || 2.32 || 2.0500297119 || 0.8836334965
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1957 || 2.201 || 1.9439936924 || 0.8832320274
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1958 || 2.11 || 1.8832549918 || 0.8925379108
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1959 || 2.044 || 1.8382620599 || 0.8993454305
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1960 || 2.001 || 1.8022177058 || 0.9006585236
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1961 || 1.976 || 1.7841955287 || 0.9029329599
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1962 || 1.965 || 1.7913837121 || 0.911645655
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1963 || 1.965 || 1.8069258306 || 0.9195551301
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1964 || 1.97 || 1.8069258306 || 0.9172212338
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1965 || 1.98 || 1.8160980429 || 0.9172212338
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1966 || 1.997 || 1.8490678593 || 0.9259228139
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1967 || 2.02 || 1.8675585379 || 0.9245339297
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1968 || 2.048 || 1.9095270769 || 0.932386268
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1969 || 2.077 || 1.9374713755 || 0.9328220393
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1970 || 2.101 || 1.956100908 || 0.9310332737
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1971 || 2.113 || 1.9788342091 || 0.9365045949
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1972 || 2.109 || 1.9788342091 || 0.9382808009
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1973 || 2.087 || 1.9600774867 || 0.9391842294
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1974 || 2.048 || 1.93400458 || 0.9443381738
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1975 || 1.997 || 1.8868337365 || 0.9448341195
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1976 || 1.94 || 1.8404835047 || 0.9487028375
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1977 || 1.885 || 1.7930483629 || 0.9512192906
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1978 || 1.838 || 1.7541038203 || 0.9543546356
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1979 || 1.802 || 1.7159711285 || 0.9522592278
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1980 || 1.777 || 1.6969047826 || 0.9549267207
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1981 || 1.761 || 1.6853812561 || 0.9570592028
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1982 || 1.751 || 1.6758052262 || 0.9570560972
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1983 || 1.741 || 1.6662291964 || 0.957052956
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1984 || 1.73 || 1.6633258337 || 0.9614600195
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1985 || 1.715 || 1.6537112335 || 0.9642631099
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1986 || 1.695 || 1.6344820331 || 0.9642961847
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1987 || 1.67 || 1.6112644302 || 0.9648290001
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1988 || 1.641 || 1.5823195602 || 0.9642410483
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1989 || 1.607 || 1.5533746902 || 0.9666301744
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1990 || 1.571 || 1.5147815302 || 0.9642148505
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1991 || 1.535 || 1.4858366602 || 0.9679717656
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1992 || 1.499 || 1.4472435002 || 0.9654726485
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1993 || 1.467 || 1.4229599729 || 0.9699795316
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1994 || 1.438 || 1.3939199734 || 0.9693462958
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1995 || 1.413 || 1.364879974 || 0.9659447799
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1996 || 1.392 || 1.3455199744 || 0.966609177
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1997 || 1.372 || 1.3301168177 || 0.9694728992
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1998 || 1.354 || 1.3204079358 || 0.9751904991
| |
| |-
| |
| | 1999 || 1.337 || 1.300990172 || 0.9730666956
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2000 || 1.322 || 1.2815724083 || 0.9694193709
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2001 || 1.31 || 1.2754038307 || 0.9735907104
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2002 || 1.303 || 1.2656679236 || 0.9713491355
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2003 || 1.3 || 1.2656679236 || 0.9735907104
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2004 || 1.301 || 1.2559320165 || 0.9653589673
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2005 || 1.307 || 1.2656679236 || 0.9683763761
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2006 || 1.317 || 1.2689559314 || 0.9635200694
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2007 || 1.329 || 1.2787171309 || 0.962164884
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2008 || 1.343 || 1.2982395298 || 0.9666712806
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2009 || 1.359 || 1.3177619288 || 0.9696555767
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2010 || 1.374 || 1.3275231282 || 0.966174038
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2011 || 1.389 || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| | 2012 || 1.405 || ||
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Mean (1873-2010) || 3.3066870191 || 2.2263275793 || 0.7425261319
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Median (1873-2010) || 3.6656394857 || 2.0778084204 || 0.6908675729
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Standard deviation (1873-2010) || 1.4083658131 || 0.6374520353 || 0.1849666117
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1873-2010) || -0.028899737 || -0.0087381739 || 0.0043928812
| |
| |-
| |
| ! R^2 for linear regression (1873-2010) || 0.6730843202 || 0.3003716783 || 0.9016227919
| |
| |-
| |
| ! Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1873-2010) || 0.9895231085 || 0.995508162 || 1.0060484222
| |
| |}
| |