Period fertility in Japan
This page gives information of type period fertility about the country Japan.
See all pages giving information on period fertility for particular countries|See all pages giving information about Japan
Contents
Data sources
Some data on this page comes from the Human Fertility Database (website www.humanfertility.org) (data downloaded December 2, 2013, last updated by HFD August 8, 2012). The data collected by the Human Fertility Database is based on government data collection by the government of Japan. You can download the data yourself here. Details about the modalities of data collection are available here. Where available, we use HFD data because of its higher reliability.
Trends in period fertility
The fertility history of Japan can be subdivided into the following rough periods. Fertility history prior to 1947 relies on Gapminder, which uses the less reliable UN data, whereas fertility history 1947 onward uses the higher reliability HFD data. However, for the part 1947 onward, the Gapminder and HFD data paint a similar picture, and the only qualitative difference is that the Gapminder data fail to capture the dip in 1966.
Time period | Trend in fertility | Some numbers | Details |
---|---|---|---|
1873-1901 | huge increase | TFR increased from 3.41 to 5.01 | |
1901-1906 | rapid decrease | TFR decreased from 5.01 to 4.37 | |
1907-1919 | upward jump, followed by modest decrease | TFR jumped up to 5.02 (from 4.37 the previous year), then decreased gradually to 4.77 | The introduction of explicit penalties for women who have abortions in 1907 might explain the jump. |
1920-1939 | rapid decrease | TFR decreased from 5.35 to 3.8 | The sudden change between 1919 and 1920 may be attributable to the change in data source. |
1939-1947 | fluctuation | TFR increased from 3.8 to 4.5, but with fluctuations | The war years of 1944 and 1945 were particularly bad for TFR. |
1947-1957 | huge decrease | CBR decreased from 34.65 to 17.38 TFR decreased from 4.566 to 2.058 |
Possibly exacerbated by the legalization of abortion in 1948. Note that the starting point of 1947 is the earliest year for which reliable data can be found, and Japan was also involved in World War II till 1945. Therefore, the relevance of legal abortion in the decline of fertility is hard to test. |
1957-1973 | modest decrease followed by modest increase | CBR increased from 17.38 to 19.35 TFR increased from 2.058 to 2.135, dipping to about 1.9 in between 1959 was the first year with below-replacement fertility, and 1973 was the last year with above-replacement fertility |
The year 1966, an inauspicious year for births, was in the middle of this period. Adjusting for the huge decline in birth sin these year and the subsequently slightly-above-normal value next year, we see a steady and modest increase in fertility over the period. Tightening of abortion laws is probably part of the explanation. |
1973-present | gradual decrease | CBR decreased from 19.35 to 8.5 TFR decreased from 2.135 to 1.361 |
The decline was not steady, with small upticks in a few years, including what may be a more long-term rebound 2005-2009 (further data would be necessary to verify that). But the overall direction of decline is pretty strong. For a discussion of reasons, see explanations for fertility trends in Japan since 1973. |
Total indicators only without breakdown by birth order
Total indicators with year-on-year differences (change measured additively)
Year | CBR (births per 1000 people per year) | CBR minus previous year's CBR | TFR (sum of all age-specific fertility rates), ballpark for replacement fertility is 2.1 | TFR minus previous year's TFR | TFR40 (sum of age-specific fertility rates up to the age of 40), almost equal to TFR because births above the age of 40 are rare | TFR40 minus previous year's TFR40 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1947 | 34.65 | 4.566 | 4.252 | |||
1948 (passage of Eugenic Protection Law permitting abortion and facilitating provision of fmaily planning services) | 33.95 | -0.7 | 4.444 | -0.122 | 4.132 | -0.12 |
1949 | 33.42 | -0.53 | 4.357 | -0.087 | 4.101 | -0.031 |
1950 | 28.42 | -5 | 3.672 | -0.685 | 3.486 | -0.615 |
1951 | 25.55 | -2.87 | 3.281 | -0.391 | 3.13 | -0.356 |
1952 | 23.6 | -1.95 | 2.995 | -0.286 | 2.874 | -0.256 |
1953 | 21.67 | -1.93 | 2.713 | -0.282 | 2.617 | -0.257 |
1954 | 20.27 | -1.4 | 2.502 | -0.211 | 2.423 | -0.194 |
1955 | 19.58 | -0.69 | 2.383 | -0.119 | 2.316 | -0.107 |
1956 | 18.63 | -0.95 | 2.236 | -0.147 | 2.18 | -0.136 |
1957 | 17.38 | -1.25 | 2.058 | -0.178 | 2.013 | -0.167 |
1958 | 18.18 | 0.8 | 2.129 | 0.071 | 2.089 | 0.076 |
1959 (first year with TFR below replacement fertility) | 17.71 | -0.47 | 2.061 | -0.068 | 2.027 | -0.062 |
1960 | 17.33 | -0.38 | 2.008 | -0.053 | 1.98 | -0.047 |
1961 | 16.99 | -0.34 | 1.963 | -0.045 | 1.94 | -0.04 |
1962 | 17.14 | 0.15 | 1.974 | 0.011 | 1.954 | 0.014 |
1963 | 17.4 | 0.26 | 2.001 | 0.027 | 1.983 | 0.029 |
1964 | 17.81 | 0.41 | 2.045 | 0.044 | 2.028 | 0.045 |
1965 | 18.72 | 0.91 | 2.145 | 0.1 | 2.129 | 0.101 |
1966 (inauspicious year for births) | 13.85 | -4.87 | 1.579 | -0.566 | 1.565 | -0.564 |
1967 | 19.49 | 5.64 | 2.224 | 0.645 | 2.21 | 0.645 |
1968 | 18.63 | -0.86 | 2.127 | -0.097 | 2.112 | -0.098 |
1969 | 18.58 | -0.05 | 2.119 | -0.008 | 2.105 | -0.007 |
1970 | 18.8 | 0.22 | 2.129 | 0.01 | 2.115 | 0.01 |
1971 | 19.21 | 0.41 | 2.153 | 0.024 | 2.139 | 0.024 |
1972 | 19.3 | 0.09 | 2.138 | -0.015 | 2.125 | -0.014 |
1973 (last year with TFR above the replacement fertility level; also, first year with new data collection modality) | 19.35 | 0.05 | 2.135 | -0.003 | 2.121 | -0.004 |
1974 | 18.52 | -0.83 | 2.04 | -0.095 | 2.028 | -0.093 |
1975 | 17.14 | -1.38 | 1.9 | -0.14 | 1.889 | -0.139 |
1976 | 16.34 | -0.8 | 1.84 | -0.06 | 1.83 | -0.059 |
1977 | 15.5 | -0.84 | 1.786 | -0.054 | 1.776 | -0.054 |
1978 | 14.95 | -0.55 | 1.774 | -0.012 | 1.765 | -0.011 |
1979 | 14.25 | -0.7 | 1.751 | -0.023 | 1.742 | -0.023 |
1980 | 13.57 | -0.68 | 1.731 | -0.02 | 1.722 | -0.02 |
1981 | 13.07 | -0.5 | 1.726 | -0.005 | 1.718 | -0.004 |
1982 | 12.86 | -0.21 | 1.755 | 0.029 | 1.746 | 0.028 |
1983 | 12.72 | -0.14 | 1.788 | 0.033 | 1.779 | 0.033 |
1984 | 12.48 | -0.24 | 1.8 | 0.012 | 1.79 | 0.011 |
1985 | 11.92 | -0.56 | 1.757 | -0.043 | 1.747 | -0.043 |
1986 | 11.45 | -0.47 | 1.719 | -0.038 | 1.709 | -0.038 |
1987 | 11.1 | -0.35 | 1.689 | -0.03 | 1.68 | -0.029 |
1988 | 10.79 | -0.31 | 1.657 | -0.032 | 1.647 | -0.033 |
1989 | 10.2 | -0.59 | 1.576 | -0.081 | 1.565 | -0.082 |
1990 | 9.96 | -0.24 | 1.543 | -0.033 | 1.531 | -0.034 |
1991 | 9.95 | -0.01 | 1.537 | -0.006 | 1.525 | -0.006 |
1992 | 9.8 | -0.15 | 1.506 | -0.031 | 1.493 | -0.032 |
1993 | 9.61 | -0.19 | 1.464 | -0.042 | 1.451 | -0.042 |
1994 | 9.98 | 0.37 | 1.507 | 0.043 | 1.493 | 0.042 |
1995 | 9.55 | -0.43 | 1.426 | -0.081 | 1.411 | -0.082 |
1996 | 9.68 | 0.13 | 1.43 | 0.004 | 1.414 | 0.003 |
1997 | 9.54 | -0.14 | 1.392 | -0.038 | 1.376 | -0.038 |
1998 | 9.61 | 0.07 | 1.388 | -0.004 | 1.371 | -0.005 |
1999 | 9.39 | -0.22 | 1.347 | -0.041 | 1.329 | -0.042 |
2000 | 9.49 | 0.1 | 1.359 | 0.012 | 1.339 | 0.01 |
2001 | 9.31 | -0.18 | 1.336 | -0.023 | 1.316 | -0.023 |
2002 | 9.16 | -0.15 | 1.318 | -0.018 | 1.297 | -0.019 |
2003 | 8.91 | -0.25 | 1.29 | -0.028 | 1.266 | -0.031 |
2004 | 8.81 | -0.1 | 1.288 | -0.002 | 1.263 | -0.003 |
2005 | 8.43 | -0.38 | 1.254 | -0.034 | 1.228 | -0.035 |
2006 | 8.67 | 0.24 | 1.313 | 0.059 | 1.285 | 0.057 |
2007 | 8.64 | -0.03 | 1.331 | 0.018 | 1.299 | 0.014 |
2008 | 8.66 | 0.02 | 1.36 | 0.029 | 1.326 | 0.027 |
2009 | 8.5 | -0.16 | 1.361 | 0.001 | 1.324 | -0.002 |
Maximum | 34.65 (1947) |
5.64 (1967) |
4.566 (1947) |
0.645 (1967) |
4.252 (1947) |
0.645 (1967) |
Minimum | 8.43 (2005) |
-5 (1950) |
1.254 (2005) |
-0.685 (1950) |
1.228 (2005) |
-0.615 (1950) |
Average (arithmetic mean) | 15.366984127 | -0.4217741935 | 1.971047619 | -0.0516935484 | 1.9304126984 | -0.0472258065 |
Geometric mean | 14.2564922903 | 1.8716644672 | 1.8411780514 | |||
Median | 14.25 | -0.245 | 1.786 | -0.029 | 1.776 | -0.03 |
Standard deviation | 6.3600331291 | 1.2910175478 | 0.7350500406 | 0.1619209065 | 0.6754908761 | 0.1543309643 |
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) | -0.3094743664 | 0.0196975649 | -0.0323055876 | 0.0031489764 | -0.0303344854 | 0.0027210597 |
Multiplier for best log-linear fit (using linear regression on the logarithm) | 0.9803430789 | 0.985175264 | 0.985546664 | |||
![]() |
0.7955544081 | 0.075772529 | 0.6490239958 | 0.1231073376 | 0.6776002642 | 0.1011861286 |
Crude birth rate
Crude birth rate broken down by birth order
Year | CBR | CBR1 | CBR2 | CBR3 | CBR4 | CBR5+ | CBR1 proportion | CBR2 proportion | CBR3 proportion | CBR4 proportion | CBR5+ proportion |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1947 | 34.65 | ||||||||||
1948 | 33.95 | ||||||||||
1949 | 33.42 | ||||||||||
1950 | 28.42 | ||||||||||
1951 | 25.55 | ||||||||||
1952 | 23.6 | ||||||||||
1953 | 21.67 | ||||||||||
1954 | 20.27 | ||||||||||
1955 | 19.58 | ||||||||||
1956 | 18.63 | ||||||||||
1957 | 17.38 | ||||||||||
1958 | 18.18 | ||||||||||
1959 | 17.71 | ||||||||||
1960 | 17.33 | ||||||||||
1961 | 16.99 | ||||||||||
1962 | 17.14 | ||||||||||
1963 | 17.4 | ||||||||||
1964 | 17.81 | ||||||||||
1965 | 18.72 | ||||||||||
1966 | 13.85 | ||||||||||
1967 | 19.49 | ||||||||||
1968 | 18.63 | 8.6 | 7.32 | 2.15 | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.4616210413 | 0.3929146538 | 0.1154052603 | 0.0209339775 | 0.0091250671 |
1969 | 18.58 | 8.41 | 7.32 | 2.31 | 0.39 | 0.16 | 0.4526372443 | 0.3939720129 | 0.1243272336 | 0.0209903122 | 0.0086114101 |
1970 | 18.8 | 8.55 | 7.33 | 2.39 | 0.39 | 0.15 | 0.454787234 | 0.389893617 | 0.1271276596 | 0.0207446809 | 0.0079787234 |
1971 | 19.21 | 8.65 | 7.5 | 2.51 | 0.4 | 0.14 | 0.4502863092 | 0.3904216554 | 0.130661114 | 0.0208224883 | 0.0072878709 |
1972 | 19.3 | 8.86 | 7.35 | 2.54 | 0.4 | 0.14 | 0.4590673575 | 0.3808290155 | 0.1316062176 | 0.0207253886 | 0.007253886 |
1973 | 19.35 | 8.79 | 7.36 | 2.62 | 0.42 | 0.15 | 0.4542635659 | 0.3803617571 | 0.1354005168 | 0.0217054264 | 0.007751938 |
1974 | 18.52 | 8.45 | 7.16 | 2.41 | 0.38 | 0.13 | 0.4562634989 | 0.3866090713 | 0.1301295896 | 0.0205183585 | 0.0070194384 |
1975 | 17.14 | 7.77 | 6.92 | 2.02 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 0.4533255543 | 0.4037339557 | 0.1178529755 | 0.0180863477 | 0.0070011669 |
1976 | 16.34 | 7.17 | 6.8 | 1.97 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.4388004896 | 0.4161566707 | 0.1205630355 | 0.017747858 | 0.0067319461 |
1977 | 15.5 | 6.59 | 6.56 | 1.98 | 0.28 | 0.1 | 0.4251612903 | 0.4232258065 | 0.1277419355 | 0.0180645161 | 0.0064516129 |
1978 | 14.95 | 6.22 | 6.35 | 2.02 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.4160535117 | 0.4247491639 | 0.1351170569 | 0.0180602007 | 0.0060200669 |
1979 | 14.25 | 5.94 | 5.95 | 2.02 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.4168421053 | 0.4175438596 | 0.141754386 | 0.018245614 | 0.0056140351 |
1980 | 13.57 | 5.75 | 5.53 | 1.96 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.4237288136 | 0.4075165807 | 0.1444362564 | 0.0191599116 | 0.0058953574 |
1981 | 13.07 | 5.61 | 5.22 | 1.91 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.4292272379 | 0.3993879112 | 0.1461361897 | 0.0198928845 | 0.0061208875 |
1982 | 12.86 | 5.51 | 5.1 | 1.91 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 0.4284603421 | 0.3965785381 | 0.1485225505 | 0.0209953344 | 0.0062208398 |
1983 | 12.72 | 5.47 | 4.97 | 1.92 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 0.4300314465 | 0.3907232704 | 0.1509433962 | 0.0212264151 | 0.0062893082 |
1984 | 12.48 | 5.31 | 4.87 | 1.93 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 0.4254807692 | 0.390224359 | 0.1546474359 | 0.0224358974 | 0.0064102564 |
1985 | 11.92 | 5.01 | 4.69 | 1.88 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.4203020134 | 0.3934563758 | 0.1577181208 | 0.0226510067 | 0.0058724832 |
1986 | 11.45 | 4.85 | 4.47 | 1.8 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.423580786 | 0.3903930131 | 0.1572052402 | 0.023580786 | 0.0061135371 |
1987 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 4.32 | 1.76 | 0.26 | 0.07 | 0.4234234234 | 0.3891891892 | 0.1585585586 | 0.0234234234 | 0.0063063063 |
1988 | 10.79 | 4.55 | 4.18 | 1.73 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 0.421686747 | 0.3873957368 | 0.1603336423 | 0.0240963855 | 0.0055607044 |
1989 | 10.2 | 4.38 | 3.89 | 1.63 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.4294117647 | 0.381372549 | 0.1598039216 | 0.0245098039 | 0.0058823529 |
1990 | 9.96 | 4.34 | 3.75 | 1.57 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.4357429719 | 0.3765060241 | 0.1576305221 | 0.0251004016 | 0.0060240964 |
1991 | 9.95 | 4.49 | 3.66 | 1.5 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 0.4512562814 | 0.367839196 | 0.1507537688 | 0.024120603 | 0.0060301508 |
1992 | 9.8 | 4.51 | 3.58 | 1.42 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.4602040816 | 0.3653061224 | 0.1448979592 | 0.0234693878 | 0.006122449 |
1993 | 9.61 | 4.51 | 3.49 | 1.34 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.4693028096 | 0.3631633715 | 0.1394380853 | 0.02289282 | 0.0052029136 |
1994 | 9.98 | 4.75 | 3.6 | 1.34 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.4759519038 | 0.3607214429 | 0.1342685371 | 0.0230460922 | 0.006012024 |
1995 | 9.55 | 4.56 | 3.45 | 1.26 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.477486911 | 0.3612565445 | 0.1319371728 | 0.0230366492 | 0.0062827225 |
1996 | 9.68 | 4.61 | 3.57 | 1.24 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.4762396694 | 0.3688016529 | 0.1280991736 | 0.0216942149 | 0.0061983471 |
1997 | 9.54 | 4.58 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.4800838574 | 0.3668763103 | 0.1257861635 | 0.0220125786 | 0.0052410901 |
1998 | 9.61 | 4.66 | 3.51 | 1.18 | 0.2 | 0.05 | 0.4849115505 | 0.3652445369 | 0.1227887617 | 0.0208116545 | 0.0052029136 |
1999 | 9.39 | 4.62 | 3.41 | 1.12 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.4920127796 | 0.3631522897 | 0.1192758253 | 0.0202342918 | 0.0053248136 |
2000 | 9.49 | 4.65 | 3.47 | 1.12 | 0.2 | 0.05 | 0.4899894626 | 0.3656480506 | 0.1180189673 | 0.0210748156 | 0.0052687039 |
2001 | 9.31 | 4.56 | 3.41 | 1.1 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.4897959184 | 0.3662728249 | 0.1181525242 | 0.0204081633 | 0.0053705693 |
2002 | 9.16 | 4.54 | 3.34 | 1.04 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.4956331878 | 0.364628821 | 0.1135371179 | 0.019650655 | 0.0054585153 |
2003 | 8.91 | 4.34 | 3.32 | 1.02 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.4870931538 | 0.3726150393 | 0.1144781145 | 0.0202020202 | 0.0056116723 |
2004 | 8.81 | 4.26 | 3.31 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.4835414302 | 0.3757094211 | 0.113507378 | 0.020431328 | 0.0056753689 |
2005 | 8.43 | 4.07 | 3.17 | 0.97 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.4827995255 | 0.3760379597 | 0.1150652432 | 0.0201660735 | 0.0059311981 |
2006 | 8.67 | 4.16 | 3.24 | 1.03 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.4798154556 | 0.3737024221 | 0.1188004614 | 0.0207612457 | 0.0057670127 |
2007 | 8.64 | 4.12 | 3.2 | 1.07 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.4768518519 | 0.3703703704 | 0.1238425926 | 0.0219907407 | 0.0069444444 |
2008 | 8.66 | 4.11 | 3.19 | 1.09 | 0.2 | 0.06 | 0.474595843 | 0.3683602771 | 0.1258660508 | 0.0230946882 | 0.0069284065 |
2009 | 8.5 | 4.07 | 3.1 | 1.07 | 0.2 | 0.06 | 0.4788235294 | 0.3647058824 | 0.1258823529 | 0.0235294118 | 0.0070588235 |
Mean (1968-2009) | 12.2947619048 | 5.5630952381 | 4.7483333333 | 1.644047619 | 0.2595238095 | 0.08 | 0.4556327314 | 0.3829420791 | 0.1337623587 | 0.0213415441 | 0.0063137007 |
Geometric mean (1968-2009) | 14.2564922903 | 5.3696471539 | 4.5153054 | 1.5692807595 | 0.2509251848 | 0.0738468184 | 0.4549327532 | 0.3825503349 | 0.1329542139 | 0.0212591409 | 0.0062565259 |
Median (1968-2009) | 10.495 | 4.68 | 4.035 | 1.68 | 0.255 | 0.06 | 0.4555253665 | 0.3805953863 | 0.1303953518 | 0.0209928233 | 0.0061172123 |
Standard deviation (1968-2009) | 3.7176403729 | 1.6032626614 | 1.5746713427 | 0.5009116544 | 0.0712245635 | 0.0354758592 | 0.0254953152 | 0.0177110054 | 0.0150539022 | 0.0018880947 | 0.0008986095 |
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1968-2009) | -0.2828166275 | -0.114746779 | -0.1210153148 | -0.0393963212 | -0.0053075115 | -0.0025070902 | 0.0013334093 | -0.0010227596 | -0.0003296164 | 4.68163588958831E-005 | -4.3616249428809E-005 |
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1968-2009) | 0.9781332364 | 0.9809732791 | 0.9755395455 | 0.9756427142 | 0.9803586992 | 0.9718051041 | 1.0029035336 | 0.9973483256 | 0.9974538007 | 1.0022752143 | 0.9935303984 |
Total fertility rate
Total fertility rate broken down by birth order
The columns TFR1, TFR2, TFR3, and TFR4 describe the total fertility rates at the respective birth orders 1, 2, 3, and 4. The column TFR5+ describes the total fertility rate at higher birth orders (combined). The corresponding "proportion" columns divide the corresponding birth order TFR column by the TFR column (the total across all birth orders). For each row, the proportion columns add up to 1.
Year | TFR | TFR1 | TFR2 | TFR3 | TFR4 | TFR5+ | TFR1 proportion | TFR2 proportion | TFR3 proportion | TFR4 proportion | TFR5+ proportion |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1947 | 4.566 | ||||||||||
1948 | 4.444 | ||||||||||
1949 | 4.357 | ||||||||||
1950 | 3.672 | ||||||||||
1951 | 3.281 | ||||||||||
1952 | 2.995 | ||||||||||
1953 | 2.713 | ||||||||||
1954 | 2.502 | ||||||||||
1955 | 2.383 | ||||||||||
1956 | 2.236 | ||||||||||
1957 | 2.058 | ||||||||||
1958 | 2.129 | ||||||||||
1959 | 2.061 | ||||||||||
1960 | 2.008 | ||||||||||
1961 | 1.963 | ||||||||||
1962 | 1.974 | ||||||||||
1963 | 2.001 | ||||||||||
1964 | 2.045 | ||||||||||
1965 | 2.145 | ||||||||||
1966 | 1.579 | ||||||||||
1967 | 2.224 | ||||||||||
1968 | 2.127 | 0.96 | 0.843 | 0.255 | 0.047 | 0.021 | 0.4513399154 | 0.3963328632 | 0.119887165 | 0.02209685 | 0.0098730606 |
1969 | 2.119 | 0.936 | 0.842 | 0.274 | 0.048 | 0.02 | 0.4417177914 | 0.397357244 | 0.1293062765 | 0.0226521944 | 0.0094384143 |
1970 | 2.129 | 0.938 | 0.842 | 0.283 | 0.047 | 0.019 | 0.4405824331 | 0.3954908408 | 0.1329262565 | 0.0220760921 | 0.0089243776 |
1971 | 2.153 | 0.929 | 0.86 | 0.297 | 0.048 | 0.018 | 0.4314909429 | 0.3994426382 | 0.1379470506 | 0.0222944728 | 0.0083604273 |
1972 | 2.138 | 0.934 | 0.837 | 0.3 | 0.049 | 0.018 | 0.4368568756 | 0.3914873714 | 0.1403180543 | 0.0229186155 | 0.0084190833 |
1973 | 2.135 | 0.925 | 0.829 | 0.31 | 0.051 | 0.019 | 0.4332552693 | 0.3882903981 | 0.1451990632 | 0.0238875878 | 0.0088992974 |
1974 | 2.04 | 0.902 | 0.793 | 0.283 | 0.046 | 0.016 | 0.4421568627 | 0.3887254902 | 0.1387254902 | 0.0225490196 | 0.0078431373 |
1975 | 1.9 | 0.855 | 0.758 | 0.235 | 0.037 | 0.015 | 0.45 | 0.3989473684 | 0.1236842105 | 0.0194736842 | 0.0078947368 |
1976 | 1.84 | 0.821 | 0.746 | 0.226 | 0.034 | 0.013 | 0.4461956522 | 0.4054347826 | 0.122826087 | 0.0184782609 | 0.0070652174 |
1977 | 1.786 | 0.786 | 0.731 | 0.224 | 0.033 | 0.012 | 0.4400895857 | 0.4092945129 | 0.1254199328 | 0.0184770437 | 0.006718925 |
1978 | 1.774 | 0.776 | 0.727 | 0.228 | 0.031 | 0.011 | 0.4374295378 | 0.4098083427 | 0.1285231116 | 0.0174746336 | 0.0062006764 |
1979 | 1.751 | 0.773 | 0.707 | 0.23 | 0.031 | 0.01 | 0.4414620217 | 0.4037692747 | 0.1313535123 | 0.017704169 | 0.0057110223 |
1980 | 1.731 | 0.779 | 0.685 | 0.228 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.450028885 | 0.3957250144 | 0.1317157712 | 0.0173310225 | 0.0057770075 |
1981 | 1.726 | 0.786 | 0.673 | 0.228 | 0.031 | 0.009 | 0.4553881808 | 0.3899188876 | 0.1320973349 | 0.0179606025 | 0.0052143685 |
1982 | 1.755 | 0.793 | 0.684 | 0.237 | 0.032 | 0.009 | 0.4518518519 | 0.3897435897 | 0.135042735 | 0.0182336182 | 0.0051282051 |
1983 | 1.788 | 0.805 | 0.692 | 0.247 | 0.034 | 0.009 | 0.4502237136 | 0.3870246085 | 0.1381431767 | 0.01901566 | 0.005033557 |
1984 | 1.8 | 0.796 | 0.701 | 0.258 | 0.036 | 0.01 | 0.4422222222 | 0.3894444444 | 0.1433333333 | 0.02 | 0.0055555556 |
1985 | 1.757 | 0.76 | 0.692 | 0.261 | 0.035 | 0.009 | 0.4325554923 | 0.3938531588 | 0.1485486625 | 0.0199203187 | 0.0051223677 |
1986 | 1.719 | 0.742 | 0.673 | 0.259 | 0.036 | 0.009 | 0.431646306 | 0.3915066899 | 0.1506689936 | 0.0209424084 | 0.0052356021 |
1987 | 1.689 | 0.723 | 0.661 | 0.261 | 0.036 | 0.009 | 0.4280639432 | 0.3913558319 | 0.1545293073 | 0.0213143872 | 0.0053285968 |
1988 | 1.657 | 0.702 | 0.647 | 0.263 | 0.037 | 0.009 | 0.4236572118 | 0.3904646952 | 0.1587205794 | 0.0223295112 | 0.0054315027 |
1989 | 1.576 | 0.674 | 0.606 | 0.251 | 0.037 | 0.008 | 0.4276649746 | 0.3845177665 | 0.1592639594 | 0.0234771574 | 0.0050761421 |
1990 | 1.543 | 0.664 | 0.587 | 0.246 | 0.038 | 0.008 | 0.430330525 | 0.3804277382 | 0.1594296824 | 0.0246273493 | 0.0051847051 |
1991 | 1.537 | 0.682 | 0.573 | 0.237 | 0.037 | 0.008 | 0.4437215355 | 0.372804164 | 0.1541964867 | 0.0240728692 | 0.0052049447 |
1992 | 1.506 | 0.678 | 0.558 | 0.225 | 0.036 | 0.008 | 0.4501992032 | 0.3705179283 | 0.1494023904 | 0.0239043825 | 0.005312085 |
1993 | 1.464 | 0.671 | 0.539 | 0.212 | 0.035 | 0.008 | 0.4583333333 | 0.3681693989 | 0.1448087432 | 0.0239071038 | 0.0054644809 |
1994 | 1.507 | 0.698 | 0.552 | 0.212 | 0.036 | 0.009 | 0.4631718646 | 0.3662906437 | 0.1406768414 | 0.0238885202 | 0.0059721301 |
1995 | 1.426 | 0.662 | 0.522 | 0.197 | 0.035 | 0.009 | 0.4642356241 | 0.366058906 | 0.1381486676 | 0.0245441795 | 0.0063113604 |
1996 | 1.43 | 0.661 | 0.534 | 0.192 | 0.034 | 0.009 | 0.4622377622 | 0.3734265734 | 0.1342657343 | 0.0237762238 | 0.0062937063 |
1997 | 1.392 | 0.651 | 0.516 | 0.184 | 0.032 | 0.009 | 0.4676724138 | 0.3706896552 | 0.132183908 | 0.0229885057 | 0.0064655172 |
1998 | 1.388 | 0.659 | 0.511 | 0.179 | 0.031 | 0.008 | 0.4747838617 | 0.3681556196 | 0.128962536 | 0.0223342939 | 0.0057636888 |
1999 | 1.347 | 0.652 | 0.491 | 0.167 | 0.029 | 0.008 | 0.4840386043 | 0.3645137342 | 0.1239792131 | 0.0215293244 | 0.005939124 |
2000 | 1.359 | 0.66 | 0.496 | 0.165 | 0.03 | 0.008 | 0.4856512141 | 0.3649742458 | 0.1214128035 | 0.0220750552 | 0.0058866814 |
2001 | 1.336 | 0.655 | 0.485 | 0.159 | 0.029 | 0.008 | 0.4902694611 | 0.3630239521 | 0.119011976 | 0.0217065868 | 0.005988024 |
2002 | 1.318 | 0.658 | 0.475 | 0.15 | 0.027 | 0.008 | 0.4992412747 | 0.3603945372 | 0.1138088012 | 0.0204855842 | 0.0060698027 |
2003 | 1.29 | 0.637 | 0.474 | 0.145 | 0.026 | 0.008 | 0.4937984496 | 0.3674418605 | 0.1124031008 | 0.0201550388 | 0.0062015504 |
2004 | 1.288 | 0.636 | 0.476 | 0.142 | 0.026 | 0.008 | 0.4937888199 | 0.3695652174 | 0.1102484472 | 0.0201863354 | 0.0062111801 |
2005 | 1.254 | 0.62 | 0.463 | 0.139 | 0.025 | 0.007 | 0.4944178628 | 0.3692185008 | 0.1108452951 | 0.0199362041 | 0.0055821372 |
2006 | 1.313 | 0.649 | 0.481 | 0.149 | 0.027 | 0.008 | 0.4942878903 | 0.3663366337 | 0.1134805788 | 0.0205635948 | 0.006092917 |
2007 | 1.331 | 0.655 | 0.483 | 0.157 | 0.028 | 0.008 | 0.4921111946 | 0.3628850488 | 0.1179564237 | 0.0210368144 | 0.0060105184 |
2008 | 1.36 | 0.667 | 0.491 | 0.163 | 0.03 | 0.009 | 0.4904411765 | 0.3610294118 | 0.1198529412 | 0.0220588235 | 0.0066176471 |
2009 | 1.361 | 0.674 | 0.486 | 0.161 | 0.03 | 0.009 | 0.4952240999 | 0.3570903747 | 0.1182953711 | 0.0220426157 | 0.0066127847 |
Mean (1968-2009) | 1.639047619 | 0.7448571429 | 0.6290952381 | 0.2195 | 0.0349285714 | 0.0106666667 | 0.4574722819 | 0.3816892847 | 0.133132143 | 0.0213434932 | 0.0063675302 |
Median (1968-2009) | 1.6165 | 0.7 | 0.6265 | 0.228 | 0.034 | 0.009 | 0.4502114584 | 0.3857711875 | 0.1321406215 | 0.0218746013 | 0.0059992712 |
Standard deviation (1968-2009) | 0.2837342412 | 0.1034605077 | 0.1298717584 | 0.0486637292 | 0.0068588304 | 0.0039673464 | 0.0237216689 | 0.0153357426 | 0.0140492792 | 0.0020951576 | 0.0012821002 |
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1968-2009) | -0.0222746941 | -0.007759987 | -0.0103252573 | -0.0034965562 | -0.000432785 | -0.0002570294 | 0.001556969 | -0.00111562 | -0.0004130709 | 2.9638050840737E-005 | -5.68902263624509E-005 |
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1968-2009) | 0.9866279019 | 0.9899364352 | 0.983742996 | 0.983361587 | 0.9881403735 | 0.9792000859 | 1.0033533749 | 0.997075994 | 0.9966894156 | 1.0015329706 | 0.9924715122 |
Data 1800 onward: lower quality data based on reconstruction from other data
The data here are lower quality than the other data, even for recent years. They are based on various reconstructions and estimates, and are not sufficiently reliable for calculating year-on-year changes. However, broad trends may still be discerned.
An example to illustrate the lower quality of the Gapminder data is that the Gapminder data does not pick the sudden fertility dip in 1966, whereas the HFD data does.
The data sets correlate highly. For the years 1947-2009, where both data sets are available, the correlation is 0.993, indicating near perfect agreement in the trend. The values themselves differ only slightly, both additively and multiplicatively, as the table below shows. If we exclude the anomalous year 1966 from the assessment, the correlation rises to 0.996.
Year | Japan's TFR according to Gapminder (low quality data) | Japan's TFR according to HFD (high quality data) | Difference | Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|
1800 | 4.08032 | |||
1801 | ||||
1802 | ||||
1803 | ||||
1804 | ||||
1805 | ||||
1806 | ||||
1807 | ||||
1808 | ||||
1809 | ||||
1810 | ||||
1811 | ||||
1812 | 4.42864 | |||
1813 | ||||
1814 | ||||
1815 | ||||
1816 | ||||
1817 | ||||
1818 | ||||
1819 | ||||
1820 | ||||
1821 | ||||
1822 | ||||
1823 | ||||
1824 | ||||
1825 | ||||
1826 | ||||
1827 | ||||
1828 | ||||
1829 | ||||
1830 | ||||
1831 | ||||
1832 | ||||
1833 | ||||
1834 | ||||
1835 | ||||
1836 | ||||
1837 | ||||
1838 | 4.5406 | |||
1839 | ||||
1840 | ||||
1841 | ||||
1842 | ||||
1843 | ||||
1844 | ||||
1845 | ||||
1846 | ||||
1847 | ||||
1848 | ||||
1849 | ||||
1850 | ||||
1851 | ||||
1852 | ||||
1853 | ||||
1854 | ||||
1855 | ||||
1856 | ||||
1857 | ||||
1858 | ||||
1859 | ||||
1860 | ||||
1861 | ||||
1862 | ||||
1863 | 4.83916 | |||
1864 | ||||
1865 | ||||
1866 | ||||
1867 | ||||
1868 | ||||
1869 | ||||
1870 | ||||
1871 | ||||
1872 | ||||
1873 | 3.4143658113 | |||
1874 | 3.5178314419 | |||
1875 | 3.7395435076 | |||
1876 | 3.754324312 | |||
1877 | 3.6656394857 | |||
1878 | 3.5769546594 | |||
1879 | 3.5473930507 | |||
1880 | 3.5917354638 | |||
1881 | 3.7691051163 | |||
1882 | 3.6656394857 | |||
1883 | 3.9612555733 | |||
1884 | 3.7986667251 | |||
1885 | 3.9760363776 | |||
1886 | 4.0351595951 | |||
1887 | 4.0351595951 | |||
1888 | 4.4342413133 | |||
1889 | 4.537706944 | |||
1890 | 4.1829676389 | |||
1891 | 3.990817182 | |||
1892 | 4.4046797046 | |||
1893 | 4.2568716608 | |||
1894 | 4.3455564871 | |||
1895 | 4.3603372915 | |||
1896 | 4.5081453352 | |||
1897 | 4.655953379 | |||
1898 | 4.7150765965 | |||
1899 | 4.7298574009 | |||
1900 | 4.6855149878 | |||
1901 | 5.0106926841 | |||
1902 | 4.966350271 | |||
1903 | 4.8333230316 | |||
1904 | 4.6116109659 | |||
1905 | 4.5229261396 | |||
1906 | 4.3751180958 | |||
1907 | 5.0254734885 | |||
1908 | 5.1289391191 | |||
1909 | 5.1585007279 | |||
1910 | 5.0106926841 | |||
1911 | 5.1880623366 | |||
1912 | 5.084596706 | |||
1913 | 5.0698159016 | |||
1914 | 5.1437199235 | |||
1915 | 4.9072270534 | |||
1916 | 4.9811310753 | |||
1917 | 4.9515694666 | |||
1918 | 4.8333230316 | |||
1919 | 4.774199814 | |||
1920 | 5.35 | |||
1921 | 5.22 | |||
1922 | 5.12 | |||
1923 | 5.26 | |||
1924 | 5.07 | |||
1925 | 5.22 | |||
1926 | 5.19 | |||
1927 | 5 | |||
1928 | 5.09 | |||
1929 | 4.87 | |||
1930 | 4.82 | |||
1931 | 4.76 | |||
1932 | 4.86 | |||
1933 | 4.63 | |||
1934 | 4.39 | |||
1935 | 4.59 | |||
1936 | 4.34 | |||
1937 | 4.45 | |||
1938 | 3.88 | |||
1939 | 3.8 | |||
1940 | 4.14 | |||
1941 | 4.36 | |||
1942 | 4.18 | |||
1943 | 4.11 | |||
1944 | 3.95 | |||
1945 | 3.11 | |||
1946 | 3.37 | |||
1947 | 4.51 | 4.566 | 0.056 | 1.0124168514 |
1948 | 4.38 | 4.444 | 0.064 | 1.0146118721 |
1949 | 4.3 | 4.357 | 0.057 | 1.013255814 |
1950 | 3.51 | 3.672 | 0.162 | 1.0461538462 |
1951 | 3.367 | 3.281 | -0.086 | 0.9744579745 |
1952 | 3.096 | 2.995 | -0.101 | 0.967377261 |
1953 | 2.856 | 2.713 | -0.143 | 0.949929972 |
1954 | 2.647 | 2.502 | -0.145 | 0.9452210049 |
1955 | 2.468 | 2.383 | -0.085 | 0.9655591572 |
1956 | 2.32 | 2.236 | -0.084 | 0.9637931034 |
1957 | 2.201 | 2.058 | -0.143 | 0.935029532 |
1958 | 2.11 | 2.129 | 0.019 | 1.0090047393 |
1959 | 2.044 | 2.061 | 0.017 | 1.0083170254 |
1960 | 2.001 | 2.008 | 0.007 | 1.0034982509 |
1961 | 1.976 | 1.963 | -0.013 | 0.9934210526 |
1962 | 1.965 | 1.974 | 0.009 | 1.0045801527 |
1963 | 1.965 | 2.001 | 0.036 | 1.0183206107 |
1964 | 1.97 | 2.045 | 0.075 | 1.038071066 |
1965 | 1.98 | 2.145 | 0.165 | 1.0833333333 |
1966 | 1.997 | 1.579 | -0.418 | 0.790686029 |
1967 | 2.02 | 2.224 | 0.204 | 1.100990099 |
1968 | 2.048 | 2.127 | 0.079 | 1.0385742188 |
1969 | 2.077 | 2.119 | 0.042 | 1.0202214733 |
1970 | 2.101 | 2.129 | 0.028 | 1.0133269871 |
1971 | 2.113 | 2.153 | 0.04 | 1.0189304307 |
1972 | 2.109 | 2.138 | 0.029 | 1.0137505927 |
1973 | 2.087 | 2.135 | 0.048 | 1.0229995208 |
1974 | 2.048 | 2.04 | -0.008 | 0.99609375 |
1975 | 1.997 | 1.9 | -0.097 | 0.9514271407 |
1976 | 1.94 | 1.84 | -0.1 | 0.9484536082 |
1977 | 1.885 | 1.786 | -0.099 | 0.9474801061 |
1978 | 1.838 | 1.774 | -0.064 | 0.965179543 |
1979 | 1.802 | 1.751 | -0.051 | 0.9716981132 |
1980 | 1.777 | 1.731 | -0.046 | 0.9741136747 |
1981 | 1.761 | 1.726 | -0.035 | 0.980124929 |
1982 | 1.751 | 1.755 | 0.004 | 1.0022844089 |
1983 | 1.741 | 1.788 | 0.047 | 1.0269959793 |
1984 | 1.73 | 1.8 | 0.07 | 1.0404624277 |
1985 | 1.715 | 1.757 | 0.042 | 1.0244897959 |
1986 | 1.695 | 1.719 | 0.024 | 1.014159292 |
1987 | 1.67 | 1.689 | 0.019 | 1.0113772455 |
1988 | 1.641 | 1.657 | 0.016 | 1.0097501523 |
1989 | 1.607 | 1.576 | -0.031 | 0.9807093964 |
1990 | 1.571 | 1.543 | -0.028 | 0.9821769574 |
1991 | 1.535 | 1.537 | 0.002 | 1.0013029316 |
1992 | 1.499 | 1.506 | 0.007 | 1.0046697799 |
1993 | 1.467 | 1.464 | -0.003 | 0.9979550102 |
1994 | 1.438 | 1.507 | 0.069 | 1.0479833102 |
1995 | 1.413 | 1.426 | 0.013 | 1.0092002831 |
1996 | 1.392 | 1.43 | 0.038 | 1.0272988506 |
1997 | 1.372 | 1.392 | 0.02 | 1.0145772595 |
1998 | 1.354 | 1.388 | 0.034 | 1.0251107829 |
1999 | 1.337 | 1.347 | 0.01 | 1.0074794316 |
2000 | 1.322 | 1.359 | 0.037 | 1.0279878971 |
2001 | 1.31 | 1.336 | 0.026 | 1.0198473282 |
2002 | 1.303 | 1.318 | 0.015 | 1.0115118956 |
2003 | 1.3 | 1.29 | -0.01 | 0.9923076923 |
2004 | 1.301 | 1.288 | -0.013 | 0.9900076864 |
2005 | 1.307 | 1.254 | -0.053 | 0.9594491201 |
2006 | 1.317 | 1.313 | -0.004 | 0.9969627942 |
2007 | 1.329 | 1.331 | 0.002 | 1.0015048909 |
2008 | 1.343 | 1.36 | 0.017 | 1.0126582278 |
2009 | 1.359 | 1.361 | 0.002 | 1.0014716703 |
2010 | 1.374 | |||
2011 | 1.389 | |||
2012 | 1.405 | |||
Average (1947-2009) | -0.0033174603 | 0.9990808783 |