Period fertility in Japan

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This page gives information of type period fertility about the country Japan.
See all pages giving information on period fertility for particular countries|See all pages giving information about Japan

Data sources

Some data on this page comes from the Human Fertility Database (website www.humanfertility.org) (data downloaded December 2, 2013, last updated by HFD August 8, 2012). The data collected by the Human Fertility Database is based on government data collection by the government of Japan. You can download the data yourself here. Details about the modalities of data collection are available here. Where available, we use HFD data because of its higher reliability.

Trends in period fertility

The fertility history of Japan can be subdivided into the following rough periods. Fertility history prior to 1947 relies on Gapminder, which uses the less reliable UN data, whereas fertility history 1947 onward uses the higher reliability HFD data. However, for the part 1947 onward, the Gapminder and HFD data paint a similar picture, and the only qualitative difference is that the Gapminder data fail to capture the dip in 1966.

Time period Trend in fertility Some numbers Details
1873-1901 huge increase TFR increased from 3.41 to 5.01
1901-1906 rapid decrease TFR decreased from 5.01 to 4.37
1907-1919 upward jump, followed by modest decrease TFR jumped up to 5.02 (from 4.37 the previous year), then decreased gradually to 4.77 The introduction of explicit penalties for women who have abortions in 1907 might explain the jump.
1920-1939 rapid decrease TFR decreased from 5.35 to 3.8 The sudden change between 1919 and 1920 may be attributable to the change in data source.
1939-1947 fluctuation TFR increased from 3.8 to 4.5, but with fluctuations The war years of 1944 and 1945 were particularly bad for TFR.
1947-1957 huge decrease CBR decreased from 34.65 to 17.38
TFR decreased from 4.566 to 2.058
Possibly exacerbated by the legalization of abortion in 1948. Note that the starting point of 1947 is the earliest year for which reliable data can be found, and Japan was also involved in World War II till 1945. Therefore, the relevance of legal abortion in the decline of fertility is hard to test.
1957-1973 modest decrease followed by modest increase CBR increased from 17.38 to 19.35
TFR increased from 2.058 to 2.135, dipping to about 1.9 in between
1959 was the first year with below-replacement fertility, and 1973 was the last year with above-replacement fertility
The year 1966, an inauspicious year for births, was in the middle of this period. Adjusting for the huge decline in birth sin these year and the subsequently slightly-above-normal value next year, we see a steady and modest increase in fertility over the period. Tightening of abortion laws is probably part of the explanation.
1973-present gradual decrease CBR decreased from 19.35 to 8.5
TFR decreased from 2.135 to 1.361
The decline was not steady, with small upticks in a few years, including what may be a more long-term rebound 2005-2009 (further data would be necessary to verify that). But the overall direction of decline is pretty strong. For a discussion of reasons, see explanations for fertility trends in Japan since 1973.


Total indicators only without breakdown by birth order

Total indicators with year-on-year differences (change measured additively)

Year CBR (births per 1000 people per year) CBR minus previous year's CBR TFR (sum of all age-specific fertility rates), ballpark for replacement fertility is 2.1 TFR minus previous year's TFR TFR40 (sum of age-specific fertility rates up to the age of 40), almost equal to TFR because births above the age of 40 are rare TFR40 minus previous year's TFR40
1947 34.65 4.566 4.252
1948 (passage of Eugenic Protection Law permitting abortion and facilitating provision of fmaily planning services) 33.95 -0.7 4.444 -0.122 4.132 -0.12
1949 33.42 -0.53 4.357 -0.087 4.101 -0.031
1950 28.42 -5 3.672 -0.685 3.486 -0.615
1951 25.55 -2.87 3.281 -0.391 3.13 -0.356
1952 23.6 -1.95 2.995 -0.286 2.874 -0.256
1953 21.67 -1.93 2.713 -0.282 2.617 -0.257
1954 20.27 -1.4 2.502 -0.211 2.423 -0.194
1955 19.58 -0.69 2.383 -0.119 2.316 -0.107
1956 18.63 -0.95 2.236 -0.147 2.18 -0.136
1957 17.38 -1.25 2.058 -0.178 2.013 -0.167
1958 18.18 0.8 2.129 0.071 2.089 0.076
1959 (first year with TFR below replacement fertility) 17.71 -0.47 2.061 -0.068 2.027 -0.062
1960 17.33 -0.38 2.008 -0.053 1.98 -0.047
1961 16.99 -0.34 1.963 -0.045 1.94 -0.04
1962 17.14 0.15 1.974 0.011 1.954 0.014
1963 17.4 0.26 2.001 0.027 1.983 0.029
1964 17.81 0.41 2.045 0.044 2.028 0.045
1965 18.72 0.91 2.145 0.1 2.129 0.101
1966 (inauspicious year for births) 13.85 -4.87 1.579 -0.566 1.565 -0.564
1967 19.49 5.64 2.224 0.645 2.21 0.645
1968 18.63 -0.86 2.127 -0.097 2.112 -0.098
1969 18.58 -0.05 2.119 -0.008 2.105 -0.007
1970 18.8 0.22 2.129 0.01 2.115 0.01
1971 19.21 0.41 2.153 0.024 2.139 0.024
1972 19.3 0.09 2.138 -0.015 2.125 -0.014
1973 (last year with TFR above the replacement fertility level; also, first year with new data collection modality) 19.35 0.05 2.135 -0.003 2.121 -0.004
1974 18.52 -0.83 2.04 -0.095 2.028 -0.093
1975 17.14 -1.38 1.9 -0.14 1.889 -0.139
1976 16.34 -0.8 1.84 -0.06 1.83 -0.059
1977 15.5 -0.84 1.786 -0.054 1.776 -0.054
1978 14.95 -0.55 1.774 -0.012 1.765 -0.011
1979 14.25 -0.7 1.751 -0.023 1.742 -0.023
1980 13.57 -0.68 1.731 -0.02 1.722 -0.02
1981 13.07 -0.5 1.726 -0.005 1.718 -0.004
1982 12.86 -0.21 1.755 0.029 1.746 0.028
1983 12.72 -0.14 1.788 0.033 1.779 0.033
1984 12.48 -0.24 1.8 0.012 1.79 0.011
1985 11.92 -0.56 1.757 -0.043 1.747 -0.043
1986 11.45 -0.47 1.719 -0.038 1.709 -0.038
1987 11.1 -0.35 1.689 -0.03 1.68 -0.029
1988 10.79 -0.31 1.657 -0.032 1.647 -0.033
1989 10.2 -0.59 1.576 -0.081 1.565 -0.082
1990 9.96 -0.24 1.543 -0.033 1.531 -0.034
1991 9.95 -0.01 1.537 -0.006 1.525 -0.006
1992 9.8 -0.15 1.506 -0.031 1.493 -0.032
1993 9.61 -0.19 1.464 -0.042 1.451 -0.042
1994 9.98 0.37 1.507 0.043 1.493 0.042
1995 9.55 -0.43 1.426 -0.081 1.411 -0.082
1996 9.68 0.13 1.43 0.004 1.414 0.003
1997 9.54 -0.14 1.392 -0.038 1.376 -0.038
1998 9.61 0.07 1.388 -0.004 1.371 -0.005
1999 9.39 -0.22 1.347 -0.041 1.329 -0.042
2000 9.49 0.1 1.359 0.012 1.339 0.01
2001 9.31 -0.18 1.336 -0.023 1.316 -0.023
2002 9.16 -0.15 1.318 -0.018 1.297 -0.019
2003 8.91 -0.25 1.29 -0.028 1.266 -0.031
2004 8.81 -0.1 1.288 -0.002 1.263 -0.003
2005 8.43 -0.38 1.254 -0.034 1.228 -0.035
2006 8.67 0.24 1.313 0.059 1.285 0.057
2007 8.64 -0.03 1.331 0.018 1.299 0.014
2008 8.66 0.02 1.36 0.029 1.326 0.027
2009 8.5 -0.16 1.361 0.001 1.324 -0.002
Maximum 34.65
(1947)
5.64
(1967)
4.566
(1947)
0.645
(1967)
4.252
(1947)
0.645
(1967)
Minimum 8.43
(2005)
-5
(1950)
1.254
(2005)
-0.685
(1950)
1.228
(2005)
-0.615
(1950)
Average (arithmetic mean) 15.366984127 -0.4217741935 1.971047619 -0.0516935484 1.9304126984 -0.0472258065
Geometric mean 14.2564922903 1.8716644672 1.8411780514
Median 14.25 -0.245 1.786 -0.029 1.776 -0.03
Standard deviation 6.3600331291 1.2910175478 0.7350500406 0.1619209065 0.6754908761 0.1543309643
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) -0.3094743664 0.0196975649 -0.0323055876 0.0031489764 -0.0303344854 0.0027210597
Multiplier for best log-linear fit (using linear regression on the logarithm) 0.9803430789 0.985175264 0.985546664
R^2 for linear regression 0.7955544081 0.075772529 0.6490239958 0.1231073376 0.6776002642 0.1011861286


Crude birth rate

Crude birth rate broken down by birth order

Year CBR CBR1 CBR2 CBR3 CBR4 CBR5+ CBR1 proportion CBR2 proportion CBR3 proportion CBR4 proportion CBR5+ proportion
1947 34.65
1948 33.95
1949 33.42
1950 28.42
1951 25.55
1952 23.6
1953 21.67
1954 20.27
1955 19.58
1956 18.63
1957 17.38
1958 18.18
1959 17.71
1960 17.33
1961 16.99
1962 17.14
1963 17.4
1964 17.81
1965 18.72
1966 13.85
1967 19.49
1968 18.63 8.6 7.32 2.15 0.39 0.17 0.4616210413 0.3929146538 0.1154052603 0.0209339775 0.0091250671
1969 18.58 8.41 7.32 2.31 0.39 0.16 0.4526372443 0.3939720129 0.1243272336 0.0209903122 0.0086114101
1970 18.8 8.55 7.33 2.39 0.39 0.15 0.454787234 0.389893617 0.1271276596 0.0207446809 0.0079787234
1971 19.21 8.65 7.5 2.51 0.4 0.14 0.4502863092 0.3904216554 0.130661114 0.0208224883 0.0072878709
1972 19.3 8.86 7.35 2.54 0.4 0.14 0.4590673575 0.3808290155 0.1316062176 0.0207253886 0.007253886
1973 19.35 8.79 7.36 2.62 0.42 0.15 0.4542635659 0.3803617571 0.1354005168 0.0217054264 0.007751938
1974 18.52 8.45 7.16 2.41 0.38 0.13 0.4562634989 0.3866090713 0.1301295896 0.0205183585 0.0070194384
1975 17.14 7.77 6.92 2.02 0.31 0.12 0.4533255543 0.4037339557 0.1178529755 0.0180863477 0.0070011669
1976 16.34 7.17 6.8 1.97 0.29 0.11 0.4388004896 0.4161566707 0.1205630355 0.017747858 0.0067319461
1977 15.5 6.59 6.56 1.98 0.28 0.1 0.4251612903 0.4232258065 0.1277419355 0.0180645161 0.0064516129
1978 14.95 6.22 6.35 2.02 0.27 0.09 0.4160535117 0.4247491639 0.1351170569 0.0180602007 0.0060200669
1979 14.25 5.94 5.95 2.02 0.26 0.08 0.4168421053 0.4175438596 0.141754386 0.018245614 0.0056140351
1980 13.57 5.75 5.53 1.96 0.26 0.08 0.4237288136 0.4075165807 0.1444362564 0.0191599116 0.0058953574
1981 13.07 5.61 5.22 1.91 0.26 0.08 0.4292272379 0.3993879112 0.1461361897 0.0198928845 0.0061208875
1982 12.86 5.51 5.1 1.91 0.27 0.08 0.4284603421 0.3965785381 0.1485225505 0.0209953344 0.0062208398
1983 12.72 5.47 4.97 1.92 0.27 0.08 0.4300314465 0.3907232704 0.1509433962 0.0212264151 0.0062893082
1984 12.48 5.31 4.87 1.93 0.28 0.08 0.4254807692 0.390224359 0.1546474359 0.0224358974 0.0064102564
1985 11.92 5.01 4.69 1.88 0.27 0.07 0.4203020134 0.3934563758 0.1577181208 0.0226510067 0.0058724832
1986 11.45 4.85 4.47 1.8 0.27 0.07 0.423580786 0.3903930131 0.1572052402 0.023580786 0.0061135371
1987 11.1 4.7 4.32 1.76 0.26 0.07 0.4234234234 0.3891891892 0.1585585586 0.0234234234 0.0063063063
1988 10.79 4.55 4.18 1.73 0.26 0.06 0.421686747 0.3873957368 0.1603336423 0.0240963855 0.0055607044
1989 10.2 4.38 3.89 1.63 0.25 0.06 0.4294117647 0.381372549 0.1598039216 0.0245098039 0.0058823529
1990 9.96 4.34 3.75 1.57 0.25 0.06 0.4357429719 0.3765060241 0.1576305221 0.0251004016 0.0060240964
1991 9.95 4.49 3.66 1.5 0.24 0.06 0.4512562814 0.367839196 0.1507537688 0.024120603 0.0060301508
1992 9.8 4.51 3.58 1.42 0.23 0.06 0.4602040816 0.3653061224 0.1448979592 0.0234693878 0.006122449
1993 9.61 4.51 3.49 1.34 0.22 0.05 0.4693028096 0.3631633715 0.1394380853 0.02289282 0.0052029136
1994 9.98 4.75 3.6 1.34 0.23 0.06 0.4759519038 0.3607214429 0.1342685371 0.0230460922 0.006012024
1995 9.55 4.56 3.45 1.26 0.22 0.06 0.477486911 0.3612565445 0.1319371728 0.0230366492 0.0062827225
1996 9.68 4.61 3.57 1.24 0.21 0.06 0.4762396694 0.3688016529 0.1280991736 0.0216942149 0.0061983471
1997 9.54 4.58 3.5 1.2 0.21 0.05 0.4800838574 0.3668763103 0.1257861635 0.0220125786 0.0052410901
1998 9.61 4.66 3.51 1.18 0.2 0.05 0.4849115505 0.3652445369 0.1227887617 0.0208116545 0.0052029136
1999 9.39 4.62 3.41 1.12 0.19 0.05 0.4920127796 0.3631522897 0.1192758253 0.0202342918 0.0053248136
2000 9.49 4.65 3.47 1.12 0.2 0.05 0.4899894626 0.3656480506 0.1180189673 0.0210748156 0.0052687039
2001 9.31 4.56 3.41 1.1 0.19 0.05 0.4897959184 0.3662728249 0.1181525242 0.0204081633 0.0053705693
2002 9.16 4.54 3.34 1.04 0.18 0.05 0.4956331878 0.364628821 0.1135371179 0.019650655 0.0054585153
2003 8.91 4.34 3.32 1.02 0.18 0.05 0.4870931538 0.3726150393 0.1144781145 0.0202020202 0.0056116723
2004 8.81 4.26 3.31 1 0.18 0.05 0.4835414302 0.3757094211 0.113507378 0.020431328 0.0056753689
2005 8.43 4.07 3.17 0.97 0.17 0.05 0.4827995255 0.3760379597 0.1150652432 0.0201660735 0.0059311981
2006 8.67 4.16 3.24 1.03 0.18 0.05 0.4798154556 0.3737024221 0.1188004614 0.0207612457 0.0057670127
2007 8.64 4.12 3.2 1.07 0.19 0.06 0.4768518519 0.3703703704 0.1238425926 0.0219907407 0.0069444444
2008 8.66 4.11 3.19 1.09 0.2 0.06 0.474595843 0.3683602771 0.1258660508 0.0230946882 0.0069284065
2009 8.5 4.07 3.1 1.07 0.2 0.06 0.4788235294 0.3647058824 0.1258823529 0.0235294118 0.0070588235
Mean (1968-2009) 12.2947619048 5.5630952381 4.7483333333 1.644047619 0.2595238095 0.08 0.4556327314 0.3829420791 0.1337623587 0.0213415441 0.0063137007
Geometric mean (1968-2009) 14.2564922903 5.3696471539 4.5153054 1.5692807595 0.2509251848 0.0738468184 0.4549327532 0.3825503349 0.1329542139 0.0212591409 0.0062565259
Median (1968-2009) 10.495 4.68 4.035 1.68 0.255 0.06 0.4555253665 0.3805953863 0.1303953518 0.0209928233 0.0061172123
Standard deviation (1968-2009) 3.7176403729 1.6032626614 1.5746713427 0.5009116544 0.0712245635 0.0354758592 0.0254953152 0.0177110054 0.0150539022 0.0018880947 0.0008986095
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1968-2009) -0.2828166275 -0.114746779 -0.1210153148 -0.0393963212 -0.0053075115 -0.0025070902 0.0013334093 -0.0010227596 -0.0003296164 4.68163588958831E-005 -4.3616249428809E-005
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1968-2009) 0.9781332364 0.9809732791 0.9755395455 0.9756427142 0.9803586992 0.9718051041 1.0029035336 0.9973483256 0.9974538007 1.0022752143 0.9935303984

Total fertility rate

Total fertility rate broken down by birth order

The columns TFR1, TFR2, TFR3, and TFR4 describe the total fertility rates at the respective birth orders 1, 2, 3, and 4. The column TFR5+ describes the total fertility rate at higher birth orders (combined). The corresponding "proportion" columns divide the corresponding birth order TFR column by the TFR column (the total across all birth orders). For each row, the proportion columns add up to 1.

Year TFR TFR1 TFR2 TFR3 TFR4 TFR5+ TFR1 proportion TFR2 proportion TFR3 proportion TFR4 proportion TFR5+ proportion
1947 4.566
1948 4.444
1949 4.357
1950 3.672
1951 3.281
1952 2.995
1953 2.713
1954 2.502
1955 2.383
1956 2.236
1957 2.058
1958 2.129
1959 2.061
1960 2.008
1961 1.963
1962 1.974
1963 2.001
1964 2.045
1965 2.145
1966 1.579
1967 2.224
1968 2.127 0.96 0.843 0.255 0.047 0.021 0.4513399154 0.3963328632 0.119887165 0.02209685 0.0098730606
1969 2.119 0.936 0.842 0.274 0.048 0.02 0.4417177914 0.397357244 0.1293062765 0.0226521944 0.0094384143
1970 2.129 0.938 0.842 0.283 0.047 0.019 0.4405824331 0.3954908408 0.1329262565 0.0220760921 0.0089243776
1971 2.153 0.929 0.86 0.297 0.048 0.018 0.4314909429 0.3994426382 0.1379470506 0.0222944728 0.0083604273
1972 2.138 0.934 0.837 0.3 0.049 0.018 0.4368568756 0.3914873714 0.1403180543 0.0229186155 0.0084190833
1973 2.135 0.925 0.829 0.31 0.051 0.019 0.4332552693 0.3882903981 0.1451990632 0.0238875878 0.0088992974
1974 2.04 0.902 0.793 0.283 0.046 0.016 0.4421568627 0.3887254902 0.1387254902 0.0225490196 0.0078431373
1975 1.9 0.855 0.758 0.235 0.037 0.015 0.45 0.3989473684 0.1236842105 0.0194736842 0.0078947368
1976 1.84 0.821 0.746 0.226 0.034 0.013 0.4461956522 0.4054347826 0.122826087 0.0184782609 0.0070652174
1977 1.786 0.786 0.731 0.224 0.033 0.012 0.4400895857 0.4092945129 0.1254199328 0.0184770437 0.006718925
1978 1.774 0.776 0.727 0.228 0.031 0.011 0.4374295378 0.4098083427 0.1285231116 0.0174746336 0.0062006764
1979 1.751 0.773 0.707 0.23 0.031 0.01 0.4414620217 0.4037692747 0.1313535123 0.017704169 0.0057110223
1980 1.731 0.779 0.685 0.228 0.03 0.01 0.450028885 0.3957250144 0.1317157712 0.0173310225 0.0057770075
1981 1.726 0.786 0.673 0.228 0.031 0.009 0.4553881808 0.3899188876 0.1320973349 0.0179606025 0.0052143685
1982 1.755 0.793 0.684 0.237 0.032 0.009 0.4518518519 0.3897435897 0.135042735 0.0182336182 0.0051282051
1983 1.788 0.805 0.692 0.247 0.034 0.009 0.4502237136 0.3870246085 0.1381431767 0.01901566 0.005033557
1984 1.8 0.796 0.701 0.258 0.036 0.01 0.4422222222 0.3894444444 0.1433333333 0.02 0.0055555556
1985 1.757 0.76 0.692 0.261 0.035 0.009 0.4325554923 0.3938531588 0.1485486625 0.0199203187 0.0051223677
1986 1.719 0.742 0.673 0.259 0.036 0.009 0.431646306 0.3915066899 0.1506689936 0.0209424084 0.0052356021
1987 1.689 0.723 0.661 0.261 0.036 0.009 0.4280639432 0.3913558319 0.1545293073 0.0213143872 0.0053285968
1988 1.657 0.702 0.647 0.263 0.037 0.009 0.4236572118 0.3904646952 0.1587205794 0.0223295112 0.0054315027
1989 1.576 0.674 0.606 0.251 0.037 0.008 0.4276649746 0.3845177665 0.1592639594 0.0234771574 0.0050761421
1990 1.543 0.664 0.587 0.246 0.038 0.008 0.430330525 0.3804277382 0.1594296824 0.0246273493 0.0051847051
1991 1.537 0.682 0.573 0.237 0.037 0.008 0.4437215355 0.372804164 0.1541964867 0.0240728692 0.0052049447
1992 1.506 0.678 0.558 0.225 0.036 0.008 0.4501992032 0.3705179283 0.1494023904 0.0239043825 0.005312085
1993 1.464 0.671 0.539 0.212 0.035 0.008 0.4583333333 0.3681693989 0.1448087432 0.0239071038 0.0054644809
1994 1.507 0.698 0.552 0.212 0.036 0.009 0.4631718646 0.3662906437 0.1406768414 0.0238885202 0.0059721301
1995 1.426 0.662 0.522 0.197 0.035 0.009 0.4642356241 0.366058906 0.1381486676 0.0245441795 0.0063113604
1996 1.43 0.661 0.534 0.192 0.034 0.009 0.4622377622 0.3734265734 0.1342657343 0.0237762238 0.0062937063
1997 1.392 0.651 0.516 0.184 0.032 0.009 0.4676724138 0.3706896552 0.132183908 0.0229885057 0.0064655172
1998 1.388 0.659 0.511 0.179 0.031 0.008 0.4747838617 0.3681556196 0.128962536 0.0223342939 0.0057636888
1999 1.347 0.652 0.491 0.167 0.029 0.008 0.4840386043 0.3645137342 0.1239792131 0.0215293244 0.005939124
2000 1.359 0.66 0.496 0.165 0.03 0.008 0.4856512141 0.3649742458 0.1214128035 0.0220750552 0.0058866814
2001 1.336 0.655 0.485 0.159 0.029 0.008 0.4902694611 0.3630239521 0.119011976 0.0217065868 0.005988024
2002 1.318 0.658 0.475 0.15 0.027 0.008 0.4992412747 0.3603945372 0.1138088012 0.0204855842 0.0060698027
2003 1.29 0.637 0.474 0.145 0.026 0.008 0.4937984496 0.3674418605 0.1124031008 0.0201550388 0.0062015504
2004 1.288 0.636 0.476 0.142 0.026 0.008 0.4937888199 0.3695652174 0.1102484472 0.0201863354 0.0062111801
2005 1.254 0.62 0.463 0.139 0.025 0.007 0.4944178628 0.3692185008 0.1108452951 0.0199362041 0.0055821372
2006 1.313 0.649 0.481 0.149 0.027 0.008 0.4942878903 0.3663366337 0.1134805788 0.0205635948 0.006092917
2007 1.331 0.655 0.483 0.157 0.028 0.008 0.4921111946 0.3628850488 0.1179564237 0.0210368144 0.0060105184
2008 1.36 0.667 0.491 0.163 0.03 0.009 0.4904411765 0.3610294118 0.1198529412 0.0220588235 0.0066176471
2009 1.361 0.674 0.486 0.161 0.03 0.009 0.4952240999 0.3570903747 0.1182953711 0.0220426157 0.0066127847
Mean (1968-2009) 1.639047619 0.7448571429 0.6290952381 0.2195 0.0349285714 0.0106666667 0.4574722819 0.3816892847 0.133132143 0.0213434932 0.0063675302
Median (1968-2009) 1.6165 0.7 0.6265 0.228 0.034 0.009 0.4502114584 0.3857711875 0.1321406215 0.0218746013 0.0059992712
Standard deviation (1968-2009) 0.2837342412 0.1034605077 0.1298717584 0.0486637292 0.0068588304 0.0039673464 0.0237216689 0.0153357426 0.0140492792 0.0020951576 0.0012821002
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1968-2009) -0.0222746941 -0.007759987 -0.0103252573 -0.0034965562 -0.000432785 -0.0002570294 0.001556969 -0.00111562 -0.0004130709 2.9638050840737E-005 -5.68902263624509E-005
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1968-2009) 0.9866279019 0.9899364352 0.983742996 0.983361587 0.9881403735 0.9792000859 1.0033533749 0.997075994 0.9966894156 1.0015329706 0.9924715122

Data 1800 onward: lower quality data based on reconstruction from other data

The data here are lower quality than the other data, even for recent years. They are based on various reconstructions and estimates, and are not sufficiently reliable for calculating year-on-year changes. However, broad trends may still be discerned.

An example to illustrate the lower quality of the Gapminder data is that the Gapminder data does not pick the sudden fertility dip in 1966, whereas the HFD data does.

The data sets correlate highly. For the years 1947-2009, where both data sets are available, the correlation is 0.993, indicating near perfect agreement in the trend. The values themselves differ only slightly, both additively and multiplicatively, as the table below shows. If we exclude the anomalous year 1966 from the assessment, the correlation rises to 0.996.

Year Japan's TFR according to Gapminder (low quality data) Japan's TFR according to HFD (high quality data) Difference Ratio
1800 4.08032
1801
1802
1803
1804
1805
1806
1807
1808
1809
1810
1811
1812 4.42864
1813
1814
1815
1816
1817
1818
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
1829
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838 4.5406
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863 4.83916
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873 3.4143658113
1874 3.5178314419
1875 3.7395435076
1876 3.754324312
1877 3.6656394857
1878 3.5769546594
1879 3.5473930507
1880 3.5917354638
1881 3.7691051163
1882 3.6656394857
1883 3.9612555733
1884 3.7986667251
1885 3.9760363776
1886 4.0351595951
1887 4.0351595951
1888 4.4342413133
1889 4.537706944
1890 4.1829676389
1891 3.990817182
1892 4.4046797046
1893 4.2568716608
1894 4.3455564871
1895 4.3603372915
1896 4.5081453352
1897 4.655953379
1898 4.7150765965
1899 4.7298574009
1900 4.6855149878
1901 5.0106926841
1902 4.966350271
1903 4.8333230316
1904 4.6116109659
1905 4.5229261396
1906 4.3751180958
1907 5.0254734885
1908 5.1289391191
1909 5.1585007279
1910 5.0106926841
1911 5.1880623366
1912 5.084596706
1913 5.0698159016
1914 5.1437199235
1915 4.9072270534
1916 4.9811310753
1917 4.9515694666
1918 4.8333230316
1919 4.774199814
1920 5.35
1921 5.22
1922 5.12
1923 5.26
1924 5.07
1925 5.22
1926 5.19
1927 5
1928 5.09
1929 4.87
1930 4.82
1931 4.76
1932 4.86
1933 4.63
1934 4.39
1935 4.59
1936 4.34
1937 4.45
1938 3.88
1939 3.8
1940 4.14
1941 4.36
1942 4.18
1943 4.11
1944 3.95
1945 3.11
1946 3.37
1947 4.51 4.566 0.056 1.0124168514
1948 4.38 4.444 0.064 1.0146118721
1949 4.3 4.357 0.057 1.013255814
1950 3.51 3.672 0.162 1.0461538462
1951 3.367 3.281 -0.086 0.9744579745
1952 3.096 2.995 -0.101 0.967377261
1953 2.856 2.713 -0.143 0.949929972
1954 2.647 2.502 -0.145 0.9452210049
1955 2.468 2.383 -0.085 0.9655591572
1956 2.32 2.236 -0.084 0.9637931034
1957 2.201 2.058 -0.143 0.935029532
1958 2.11 2.129 0.019 1.0090047393
1959 2.044 2.061 0.017 1.0083170254
1960 2.001 2.008 0.007 1.0034982509
1961 1.976 1.963 -0.013 0.9934210526
1962 1.965 1.974 0.009 1.0045801527
1963 1.965 2.001 0.036 1.0183206107
1964 1.97 2.045 0.075 1.038071066
1965 1.98 2.145 0.165 1.0833333333
1966 1.997 1.579 -0.418 0.790686029
1967 2.02 2.224 0.204 1.100990099
1968 2.048 2.127 0.079 1.0385742188
1969 2.077 2.119 0.042 1.0202214733
1970 2.101 2.129 0.028 1.0133269871
1971 2.113 2.153 0.04 1.0189304307
1972 2.109 2.138 0.029 1.0137505927
1973 2.087 2.135 0.048 1.0229995208
1974 2.048 2.04 -0.008 0.99609375
1975 1.997 1.9 -0.097 0.9514271407
1976 1.94 1.84 -0.1 0.9484536082
1977 1.885 1.786 -0.099 0.9474801061
1978 1.838 1.774 -0.064 0.965179543
1979 1.802 1.751 -0.051 0.9716981132
1980 1.777 1.731 -0.046 0.9741136747
1981 1.761 1.726 -0.035 0.980124929
1982 1.751 1.755 0.004 1.0022844089
1983 1.741 1.788 0.047 1.0269959793
1984 1.73 1.8 0.07 1.0404624277
1985 1.715 1.757 0.042 1.0244897959
1986 1.695 1.719 0.024 1.014159292
1987 1.67 1.689 0.019 1.0113772455
1988 1.641 1.657 0.016 1.0097501523
1989 1.607 1.576 -0.031 0.9807093964
1990 1.571 1.543 -0.028 0.9821769574
1991 1.535 1.537 0.002 1.0013029316
1992 1.499 1.506 0.007 1.0046697799
1993 1.467 1.464 -0.003 0.9979550102
1994 1.438 1.507 0.069 1.0479833102
1995 1.413 1.426 0.013 1.0092002831
1996 1.392 1.43 0.038 1.0272988506
1997 1.372 1.392 0.02 1.0145772595
1998 1.354 1.388 0.034 1.0251107829
1999 1.337 1.347 0.01 1.0074794316
2000 1.322 1.359 0.037 1.0279878971
2001 1.31 1.336 0.026 1.0198473282
2002 1.303 1.318 0.015 1.0115118956
2003 1.3 1.29 -0.01 0.9923076923
2004 1.301 1.288 -0.013 0.9900076864
2005 1.307 1.254 -0.053 0.9594491201
2006 1.317 1.313 -0.004 0.9969627942
2007 1.329 1.331 0.002 1.0015048909
2008 1.343 1.36 0.017 1.0126582278
2009 1.359 1.361 0.002 1.0014716703
2010 1.374
2011 1.389
2012 1.405
Average (1947-2009) -0.0033174603 0.9990808783