Explanations for fluctuations in fertility: Difference between revisions
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! Year !! Country !! Fertility information !! Considered auspicious or inauspicious? !! TFR | ! Year !! Country !! Fertility information !! Considered auspicious or inauspicious? !! TFR two years before !! TFR one year before !! TFR that year !! TFR next year !! TFR two years later !! TFR source | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 1966 || [[Japan]] || [[fertility in Japan]] || inauspicious || 2.145 || 1.579 || 2.224 || Human Fertility Database for all years | | 1966 || [[Japan]] || [[fertility in Japan]] || inauspicious || 2.045 || 2.145 || '''1.579''' || 2.224 || 2.127 || Human Fertility Database for all years | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 1988 || [[Singapore]] || [[fertility in Singapore]] || auspicious (Dragon Year) || 1.62 || 1.96 || 1.75 || UN data compiled by Gapminder for all years | | 1988 || [[Singapore]] || [[fertility in Singapore]] || auspicious (Dragon Year) || 1.43 || 1.62 || '''1.96''' || 1.75 || 1.83 || UN data compiled by Gapminder for all years | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 2000 || [[Singapore]] || [[fertility in Singapore]] || auspicious (Dragon Year) || 1.47 || 1.6 || 1.41 || UN data compiled by Gapminder for all years | | 2000 || [[Singapore]] || [[fertility in Singapore]] || auspicious (Dragon Year) || 1.48 || 1.47 || '''1.6''' || 1.41 || 1.37 || UN data compiled by Gapminder for all years | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 2010 || [[Taiwan]] || [[fertility in Taiwan]] || inauspicious || 1.022<br>1.03 || 0.887<br>0.895 || N/A<br>1.065 || First row is Human Fertility Database data, second row is UN data compiled by Gapminder. HFD data goes only till 2010. | | 2010 || [[Taiwan]] || [[fertility in Taiwan]] || inauspicious || 1.05<br>1.05 || 1.022<br>1.03 || '''0.887'''<br>'''0.895''' || N/A<br>1.065 || N/A<br>1.265 || First row is Human Fertility Database data, second row is UN data compiled by Gapminder. HFD data goes only till 2010. | ||
|- | |- | ||
| 2012 || [[Singapore]] || [[fertility in Singapore]] || auspicious (Dragon Year) || 1.267 || 1.275 || N/A || UN data compiled by Gapminder for all years | | 2012 || [[Singapore]] || [[fertility in Singapore]] || auspicious (Dragon Year) || 1.267 || '''1.275''' || N/A || UN data compiled by Gapminder for all years | ||
|- | |||
| 2012 || [[Taiwan]] || [[fertility in Taiwan]] || auspicious || 0.895 || 1.065 || 1.265 || N/A || N/A || UN data compiled by Gapminder for all years | |||
|} | |} | ||
Revision as of 22:14, 8 March 2014
Fertility follows some long-term trends, but there are also minor year-to-year fluctuations. This page explains the possible sources of fluctuations.
There are some obvious culprits:
- Definitional ambiguity
- Random variation
- Measurement error
We discuss factors that cannot be reduced to these ones.
Superstitions associated with specific years
This phenomenon operates particularly in East and South-East Asia: some years are considered very lucky for having babies, whereas some years are considered very unlucky for having babies.
Examples:
| Year | Country | Fertility information | Considered auspicious or inauspicious? | TFR two years before | TFR one year before | TFR that year | TFR next year | TFR two years later | TFR source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | Japan | fertility in Japan | inauspicious | 2.045 | 2.145 | 1.579 | 2.224 | 2.127 | Human Fertility Database for all years |
| 1988 | Singapore | fertility in Singapore | auspicious (Dragon Year) | 1.43 | 1.62 | 1.96 | 1.75 | 1.83 | UN data compiled by Gapminder for all years |
| 2000 | Singapore | fertility in Singapore | auspicious (Dragon Year) | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.6 | 1.41 | 1.37 | UN data compiled by Gapminder for all years |
| 2010 | Taiwan | fertility in Taiwan | inauspicious | 1.05 1.05 |
1.022 1.03 |
0.887 0.895 |
N/A 1.065 |
N/A 1.265 |
First row is Human Fertility Database data, second row is UN data compiled by Gapminder. HFD data goes only till 2010. |
| 2012 | Singapore | fertility in Singapore | auspicious (Dragon Year) | 1.267 | 1.275 | N/A | UN data compiled by Gapminder for all years | ||
| 2012 | Taiwan | fertility in Taiwan | auspicious | 0.895 | 1.065 | 1.265 | N/A | N/A | UN data compiled by Gapminder for all years |