Fertility in Singapore

From Demography

This page gives information of type fertility about the country Singapore.
See all pages giving information on fertility for particular countries|See all pages giving information about Singapore

Data sources

Human Fertility Database data is not available for Singapore. We therefore rely on the United Nations data as compiled by Gapminder.

Qualitative history of fertility-relevant events and trends

Key events

The event history here is based on the discussion of Singapore in Jonathan Last's book What to Expect When No One's Expecting.

Year Event Postulated effects seen in fertility statistics Total fertility rate values in that year and nearby years (relevant year in bold)
1966 The government of Singapore established a "Family Planning and Population Board" which used a combination of persuasive and coercive tactics. The government launched a propaganda campaign with emphasis on the importance of the two-child ideal. The government's activities might have helped along the decline in Singapore's fertility, but the data don't suggest any change in the trend line at the time the government introduced these policies. 4.658, 4.356, 4.074, 3.815, 3.582
1983 The government switched to a selective (eugenic) pro-natalist policy, providing tax breaks to highly educated women who had three or more children, while giving cash incentives to women with low levels of education who refrained from having more than two children. This might have led to a temporary slowdown in the general decline trend. 1.78, 1.74, 1.61, 1.62, 1.61
1987 The government initiated a "New Population Policy" encouraging everybody to have more children. The "Two is Enough" messages were replaced by messages of the "Have Three or More Children If You Can" form. This might have led to the uptick in fertility 1986-1988, before the resumption of the general downward trend. 1.61, 1.43, 1.62, 1.96, 1.75
1988 Year of the Dragon (auspicious for births) Anomalously high fertility in that year 1.43, 1.62, 1.96, 1.75, 1.83
2000 The government announced "Baby Bonus" programs as well as "Child Development Accounts" that provided government-matched long-term savings for kids. Although the value in 2000 was anomalously high relative to earlier and later years, this is generally attributed to it being the Year of the Dragon. 1.48, 1.47, 1.6, 1.41, 1.37
2000 Year of the Dragon (auspicious year for births) Anomalously high value in that year relative to earlier and later years. 1.48, 1.47, 1.6, 1.41, 1.37

Trends in period fertility

Due to the incomplete and unreliable nature of data prior to 1950, we discuss the trends starting 1950.

Time period Trend in fertility Some numbers Details
1950-1957 relatively stable TFR decreased from 6.487 to 6.415
1957-1976 rapid decrease TFR decreased from 6.415 to 2.096 The decline was relatively steady at about 0.2/year.
1976-1979 modest decrease TFR decreased from 2.096 to 1.732 The decline was about 0.1/year.
1979-1986 modest decrease TFR decreased from 1.732 to 1.43 The decline was slow, but now entering ultra-low fertility.
1986-1988 rapid increase TFR increased from 1.43 to 1.96 The elimination of incentives for low-education women to have fewer kids, plus advertising that encouraged having kids, may have led to a sharp increase. 1988 was also the Dragon Year.
1988-1999 modest decrease TFR decreased from 1.96 to 1.47 The general decline process continued.
2000 unexpectedly high value TFR was 1.6 (relative to < 1.5 before and after) This was likely a response to schemes introduced by the Singapore government to have more children.
2000-2003 rapid decrease TFR decreased from 1.6 to 1.27
2003-2012 relatively stable TFR increased from 1.27 to 1.275 TFR remained in the 1.24-1.3 range according to the UN data.

Data on period fertility

The data below is UN data as used by Gapminder.

Year Total fertility rate (TFR) estimate
1883 5.16595125
1888 5.73120345
1903 5.4557564
1908 5.37651885
1913 5.39830256
1918 5.62247585
1923 5.8856217
1928 6.46294663
1933 7.1934885
1938 7.6759488
1943 5.7249155
1948 6.60352
1950 6.487
1951 6.538
1952 6.62
1953 6.661
1954 6.661
1955 6.62
1956 6.538
1957 6.415
1958 6.254
1959 6.055
1960 5.821
1961 5.557
1962 5.27
1963 4.967
1964 4.658
1965 4.356
1966 4.074
1967 3.815
1968 3.582
1969 3.375
1970 3.19
1971 3.014
1972 2.836
1973 2.652
1974 2.461
1975 2.272
1976 2.096
1977 1.945
1978 1.827
1979 1.743
1980 1.82
1981 1.78
1982 1.74
1983 1.61
1984 1.62
1985 1.61
1986 1.43
1987 1.62
1988 1.96
1989 1.75
1990 1.83
1991 1.73
1992 1.72
1993 1.74
1994 1.71
1995 1.67
1996 1.66
1997 1.61
1998 1.48
1999 1.47
2000 1.6
2001 1.41
2002 1.37
2003 1.27
2004 1.26
2005 1.26
2006 1.28
2007 1.29
2008 1.28
2009 1.257
2010 1.261
2011 1.267
2012 1.275

References