Fertility in Japan: Difference between revisions

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==Completed fertility==
==Completed fertility==


===CCF and CC40, not broken down by birth order===
{{further|[[completed fertility in Japan]]}}


{| class="sortable" border="1"
{{#lst:completed fertility in Japan|main}}
!Cohort || CCF || CCF minus previous year's CCF || CCF40 || CCF40 minus previous year's CCF40
|-
|1932 || 2.06 ||  || 2.047 ||
|-
|1933 || 2.035 || -0.025 || 2.024 || -0.023
|-
|1934 || 2.008 || -0.027 || 1.998 || -0.026
|-
|1935 || 2.045 || 0.037 || 2.035 || 0.037
|-
|1936 || 2.035 || -0.01 || 2.026 || -0.009
|-
|1937 || 2.051 || 0.016 || 2.042 || 0.016
|-
|1938 || 2.009 || -0.042 || 2.001 || -0.041
|-
|1939 || 1.985 || -0.024 || 1.976 || -0.025
|-
|1940 || 2.052 || 0.067 || 2.043 || 0.067
|-
|1941 || 2.071 || 0.019 || 2.062 || 0.019
|-
|1942 || 2.031 || -0.04 || 2.022 || -0.04
|-
|1943 || 2.053 || 0.022 || 2.044 || 0.022
|-
|1944 || 2.036 || -0.017 || 2.027 || -0.017
|-
|1945 || 1.851 || -0.185 || 1.842 || -0.185
|-
|1946 || 1.905 || 0.054 || 1.896 || 0.054
|-
|1947 || 2.021 || 0.116 || 2.01 || 0.114
|-
|1948 || 1.987 || -0.034 || 1.976 || -0.034
|-
|1949 || 1.992 || 0.005 || 1.98 || 0.004
|-
|1950 || 1.969 || -0.023 || 1.956 || -0.024
|-
|1951 || 1.962 || -0.007 || 1.949 || -0.007
|-
|1952 || 1.982 || 0.02 || 1.968 || 0.019
|-
|1953 || 1.987 || 0.005 || 1.973 || 0.005
|-
|1954 || 1.983 || -0.004 || 1.968 || -0.005
|-
|1955 || 1.977 || -0.006 || 1.961 || -0.007
|-
|1956 || 1.946 || -0.031 || 1.929 || -0.032
|-
|1957 || 1.918 || -0.028 || 1.9 || -0.029
|-
|1958 || 1.909 || -0.009 || 1.89 || -0.01
|-
|1959 || 1.87 || -0.039 || 1.85 || -0.04
|-
|1960 || unavailable ||  || 1.805 || -0.045
|-
|1961 || unavailable ||  || 1.762 || -0.043
|-
|1962 || unavailable ||  || 1.719 || -0.043
|-
|1963 || unavailable ||  || 1.672 || -0.047
|-
|1964 || unavailable ||  || 1.66 || -0.012
|-
|1965 || unavailable ||  || 1.595 || -0.065
|-
|1966 || unavailable ||  || 1.493 || -0.102
|-
|1967 || unavailable ||  || 1.506 || 0.013
|-
|1968 || unavailable ||  || 1.497 || -0.009
|-
|1969 || unavailable ||  || 1.444 || -0.053
|-
!Mean (1932-1959) || 1.9903571429 || -0.007037037 || 1.9783928571 || -0.0072962963
|-
!Median (1932-1959) || 1.9895 || -0.009 || 1.978 || -0.009
|-
!Standard deviation (1932-1959) || 0.0582747098 || 0.0509467909 || 0.0602871765 || 0.0507488649
|-
!Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1932-1959) || -0.004805145 || -0.0004334554 || -0.0051409414 || -0.000510989
|-
! <math>R^2</math> -- goodness of linear fit (square of the correlation) as a function of time || 0.4600738487 || 0.0045603249 || 0.4920510998 || 0.0063872072
|-
!Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1932-1959) || 0.997579501 ||  || 0.9973921665 ||
|-
! Mean (1960-1969) || || || 1.6153 || -0.0406
|-
! Median (1960-1969) || || || 1.6275 || -0.044
|-
! Standard deviation (1960-1969) || || || 0.1265473561 || 0.0321116109
|-
! Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1960-1969) || || || -0.0410363636 || 0.0013818182
|-
!<math>R^2</math> -- goodness of linear fit (square of the correlation) as a function of time ||  || || 0.9639245164 ||0.01697419
|-
! Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1960-1969) || || || 0.9749241926 ||
|}
 
===Completed cohort fertilities, by birth order where available===
 
{| class="sortable" border="1"
!Cohort || CCF || CCF1 || CCF2 || CCF3 || CCF4 || CCF5+ || CCF1 proportion || CCF2 proportion || CCF3 proportion || CCF4 proportion || CCF5+ proportion
|-
|1932 || 2.06 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1933 || 2.035 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1934 || 2.008 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1935 || 2.045 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1936 || 2.035 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1937 || 2.051 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1938 || 2.009 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1939 || 1.985 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1940 || 2.052 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1941 || 2.071 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1942 || 2.031 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1943 || 2.053 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1944 || 2.036 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1945 || 1.851 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1946 || 1.905 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1947 || 2.021 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1948 || 1.987 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1949 || 1.992 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1950 || 1.969 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1951 || 1.962 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1952 || 1.982 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
|1953 || 1.987 || 0.887 || 0.769 || 0.282 || 0.04 || 0.01 || 0.4464016105 || 0.3870156014 || 0.1419224962 || 0.0201308505 || 0.0050327126
|-
|1954 || 1.983 || 0.882 || 0.765 || 0.286 || 0.041 || 0.01 || 0.4447806354 || 0.3857791225 || 0.1442259203 || 0.0206757438 || 0.0050428643
|-
|1955 || 1.977 || 0.879 || 0.761 || 0.286 || 0.042 || 0.009 || 0.4446130501 || 0.3849266566 || 0.1446636318 || 0.0212443096 || 0.004552352
|-
|1956 || 1.946 || 0.867 || 0.746 || 0.283 || 0.041 || 0.009 || 0.4455292909 || 0.3833504625 || 0.1454265159 || 0.0210688592 || 0.0046248715
|-
|1957 || 1.918 || 0.858 || 0.733 || 0.277 || 0.041 || 0.009 || 0.4473409802 || 0.382168926 || 0.1444212722 || 0.0213764338 || 0.0046923879
|-
|1958 || 1.909 || 0.858 || 0.727 || 0.274 || 0.04 || 0.009 || 0.4494499738 || 0.3808276585 || 0.1435306443 || 0.0209533787 || 0.0047145102
|-
|1959 || 1.87 || 0.846 || 0.71 || 0.265 || 0.039 || 0.009 || 0.4524064171 || 0.3796791444 || 0.1417112299 || 0.020855615 || 0.0048128342
|-
!Mean (1953-1959) || 1.9414285714 || 0.8681428571 || 0.7444285714 || 0.279 || 0.0405714286 || 0.0092857143 || 0.4472174226 || 0.3833925103 || 0.1437002444 || 0.0209007415 || 0.0047817904
|-
!Median (1953-1959) || 1.946 || 0.867 || 0.746 || 0.282 || 0.041 || 0.009 || 0.4464016105 || 0.3833504625 || 0.1442259203 || 0.0209533787 || 0.0047145102
|-
!Standard deviation (1953-1959) || 0.0443353025 || 0.0150712593 || 0.022074549 || 0.0076157731 || 0.0009759001 || 0.00048795 || 0.0028331738 || 0.0026783947 || 0.0014053277 || 0.0004124619 || 0.0001922976
|-
!Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1953-1959) || -0.0199285714 || -0.0068571429 || -0.0100357143 || -0.003 || -0.0002142857 || -0.0001785714 || 0.0010743224 || -0.0012382154 || -8.09539448686275E-005 || 0.0001022031 || -0.000042011
|-
!Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1953-1959) || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583 || 0.9897520583
|}
 
===Completed cohort fertilities till age 40, where available===
 
{| class="sortable" border="1"
! Cohort || CCF40 || CCF40_1 || CCF40_2 || CCF40_3 || CCF40_4 || CCF40_5+ || CCF40_1 proportion || CCF40_2 proportion || CCF40_3 proportion || CCF40_4 proportion || CCF40_5+ proportion
|-
| 1932 || 2.047 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1933 || 2.024 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1934 || 1.998 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1935 || 2.035 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1936 || 2.026 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1937 || 2.042 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1938 || 2.001 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1939 || 1.976 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1940 || 2.043 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1941 || 2.062 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1942 || 2.022 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1943 || 2.044 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1944 || 2.027 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1945 || 1.842 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1946 || 1.896 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1947 || 2.01 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1948 || 1.976 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1949 || 1.98 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1950 || 1.956 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1951 || 1.949 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1952 || 1.968 ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||  ||
|-
| 1953 || 1.973 || 0.883 || 0.765 || 0.278 || 0.039 || 0.009 || 0.4475418145 || 0.3877344146 || 0.1409021794 || 0.0197668525 || 0.0045615813
|-
| 1954 || 1.968 || 0.878 || 0.76 || 0.282 || 0.039 || 0.008 || 0.4461382114 || 0.3861788618 || 0.1432926829 || 0.0198170732 || 0.0040650407
|-
| 1955 || 1.961 || 0.875 || 0.756 || 0.283 || 0.039 || 0.008 || 0.4462009179 || 0.3855175931 || 0.1443141254 || 0.0198878123 || 0.0040795512
|-
| 1956 || 1.929 || 0.863 || 0.741 || 0.279 || 0.039 || 0.008 || 0.4473820632 || 0.3841368585 || 0.1446345257 || 0.0202177294 || 0.0041472265
|-
| 1957 || 1.9 || 0.853 || 0.728 || 0.273 || 0.038 || 0.008 || 0.4489473684 || 0.3831578947 || 0.1436842105 || 0.02 || 0.0042105263
|-
| 1958 || 1.89 || 0.853 || 0.722 || 0.269 || 0.038 || 0.008 || 0.4513227513 || 0.382010582 || 0.1423280423 || 0.0201058201 || 0.0042328042
|-
| 1959 || 1.85 || 0.84 || 0.704 || 0.261 || 0.037 || 0.008 || 0.4540540541 || 0.3805405405 || 0.1410810811 || 0.02 || 0.0043243243
|-
| 1960 || 1.805 || 0.826 || 0.686 || 0.249 || 0.036 || 0.008 || 0.4576177285 || 0.3800554017 || 0.1379501385 || 0.0199445983 || 0.004432133
|-
| 1961 || 1.762 || 0.815 || 0.668 || 0.237 || 0.035 || 0.007 || 0.4625425653 || 0.3791146425 || 0.1345062429 || 0.0198637911 || 0.0039727582
|-
| 1962 || 1.719 || 0.804 || 0.65 || 0.225 || 0.033 || 0.007 || 0.4677137871 || 0.3781268179 || 0.1308900524 || 0.0191972077 || 0.004072135
|-
| 1963 || 1.672 || 0.789 || 0.631 || 0.214 || 0.031 || 0.007 || 0.4718899522 || 0.3773923445 || 0.1279904306 || 0.0185406699 || 0.0041866029
|-
| 1964 || 1.66 || 0.792 || 0.625 || 0.206 || 0.031 || 0.007 || 0.4771084337 || 0.3765060241 || 0.1240963855 || 0.0186746988 || 0.0042168675
|-
| 1965 || 1.595 || 0.768 || 0.598 || 0.193 || 0.029 || 0.007 || 0.4815047022 || 0.3749216301 || 0.1210031348 || 0.0181818182 || 0.0043887147
|-
| 1966 || 1.493 || 0.726 || 0.557 || 0.176 || 0.027 || 0.007 || 0.4862692565 || 0.373074347 || 0.1178834561 || 0.0180843938 || 0.0046885466
|-
| 1967 || 1.506 || 0.739 || 0.56 || 0.173 || 0.027 || 0.007 || 0.4907038513 || 0.3718459495 || 0.114873838 || 0.0179282869 || 0.0046480744
|-
| 1968 || 1.497 || 0.741 || 0.556 || 0.168 || 0.026 || 0.007 || 0.49498998 || 0.3714094856 || 0.1122244489 || 0.0173680695 || 0.0046760187
|-
| 1969 || 1.444 || 0.719 || 0.534 || 0.159 || 0.025 || 0.007 || 0.4979224377 || 0.3698060942 || 0.1101108033 || 0.0173130194 || 0.0048476454
|-
! Mean (1953-1969) || 1.7425882353 || 0.8096470588 || 0.6612352941 || 0.2308823529 || 0.0334705882 || 0.0075294118 || 0.4664617574 || 0.378913499 || 0.1312803399 || 0.0191112848 || 0.0043382677
|-
! Median (1953-1969) || 1.762 || 0.815 || 0.668 || 0.237 || 0.035 || 0.007 || 0.4625425653 || 0.3791146425 || 0.1345062429 || 0.0197668525 || 0.0042328042
|-
! Standard deviation (1953-1969) || 0.1854976613 || 0.0556596141 || 0.0795420717 || 0.0448760548 || 0.0051734617 || 0.0006242643 || 0.0185124 || 0.0054832404 || 0.0123492838 || 0.0010215973 || 0.00026236
|-
! Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1953-1969) || -0.036252451 || -0.0108308824 || -0.0156004902 || -0.0087058824 || -0.000997549 || -0.0001078431 || 0.0035779784 || -0.0010829371 || -0.0023354568 || -0.0001824256 || 3.11583339680162E-005
|-
! Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1953-1969) || 0.9791004327 || 0.9791004327 || 0.9791004327 || 0.9791004327 || 0.9791004327 || 0.9791004327 || 0.9791004327 || 0.9791004327 || 0.9791004327 || 0.9791004327 || 0.9791004327
|-
! R^2 for linear regression (1953-1969) || 0.9739531157 || 0.9655782504 || 0.9808957967 || 0.9597020647 || 0.9480826465 || 0.7610062893 || 0.9525551905 || 0.9946540434 || 0.9120115036 || 0.8131160552 || 0.359661059
|}
 
===Parity progression ratios===
 
Note that the [[parity progression ratio]] (PPR) data is strictly deducible from the [[completed cohort fertility]] data (broken down by birth order) above, but it is included for completeness' sake.
 
{| class="sortable" border="1"
! Cohort || PPR from 0 to 1 || PPR from 1 to 2 || PPR from 2 to 3 || PPR from 3 to 4
|-
| 1953 || 0.887 || 0.867 || 0.367 || 0.144
|-
| 1954 || 0.882 || 0.868 || 0.374 || 0.144
|-
| 1955 || 0.879 || 0.865 || 0.377 || 0.145
|-
| 1956 || 0.867 || 0.86 || 0.379 || 0.146
|-
| 1957 || 0.858 || 0.855 || 0.378 || 0.147
|-
| 1958 || 0.858 || 0.848 || 0.376 || 0.147
|-
| 1959 || 0.846 || 0.84 || 0.373 || 0.149
|-
! Maximum || 0.887 || 0.868 || 0.379 || 0.149
|-
! Minimum || 0.846 || 0.84 || 0.367 || 0.144
|-
! Average (arithmetic mean) || 0.8681428571 || 0.8575714286 || 0.3748571429 || 0.146
|-
! Geometric mean || 0.8680305627 || 0.8575157207 || 0.374838175 || 0.1459902411
|-
! Median || 0.867 || 0.86 || 0.376 || 0.146
|-
! Standard deviation || 0.0150712593 || 0.0105333936 || 0.0040590874 || 0.0018257419
|-
! Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) || -0.0068571429 || -0.0046785714 || 0.0008214286 || 0.0008214286
|-
! Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using linear regression on logarithm) || 0.9921263898 || 0.9945448817 || 1.0022155011 || 1.0056349756
|-
! <math>R^2</math> for linear regression || 0.9660377358 || 0.9206545064 || 0.1911127168 || 0.9446428571
|}


==Mean age at birth by period==
==Mean age at birth by period==

Revision as of 19:42, 3 March 2014

This page gives information of type fertility about the country Japan.
See all pages giving information on fertility for particular countries|See all pages giving information about Japan

Data sources

Some data on this page comes from the Human Fertility Database (website www.humanfertility.org) (data downloaded December 2, 2013, last updated by HFD August 8, 2012). The data collected by the Human Fertility Database is based on government data collection by the government of Japan. You can download the data yourself here. Details about the modalities of data collection are available here. Where available, we use HFD data because of its higher reliability.

Qualitative history of fertility-relevant events and trends

Key events

See Wikipedia:Abortion in Japan for the abortion timeline, and this paper for the pro-natalist policy timeline.

Year Event Postulated effects seen in fertility statistics
1869 abortion was banned nationwide, but punishment was rare except in cases of adultery or death to the mother
1880 ban on abortion was included in the penal code
1907 women could be incarcerated for up to a year for having an abortion; practitioners could be jailed for up to seven.
1923 doctors were granted legal permission to perform emergency abortions to save the mother's life; abortions performed under different, less life-threatening circumstances were still prosecuted.
1940 National Eugenic Law outlined a set of procedures doctors needed to follow in order to get an abortion. Some commentators claim this was causally responsible for a huge decline in the number of abortions 1941-1944.
1948 passage of Eugenic Protection Law legalizing abortion and facilitating the provision of family planning services This may have contributed to the rapid decline in birth rates and fertility in the 1949-1955 period.
1966 inauspicious year for births. sudden dip in fertility rates.
1972 The Japanese government, foreseeing that fertility would soon drop to below the replacement fertility level, introduced a per-child subsidy.
1973 change in data collection modalities Jumps or discontinuities at this year are likely attributable to the change in data collection modality.
1991 Childcare Leave Act passed by Japanese government aimed at helping working mothers
1994 government passed a four-year Angel Plan 1995-99 (officially known as the "Basic Direction for Future Childbearing Support Measures") with the primary goal being to establish more day-care centers to make parenting easier (and thereby, more attractive)
1996 replacement of the Eugenic Protection Law by the Maternal Health Protection Law, making abortion illegal except in case the fetus had significant defects or in case of danger to the mother's health No discernible effect, but probably because the law itself didn't change reality on the ground.
1999 government passed a New Angel Plan building on the earlier Angel Plan, to build more day-care centers and after-school support.
1999 birth control pills were legalized, see here No discernible effect
2001 Employment Insurance Law was amended, specifying that 40% salary was to be paid to regular full-time employees on childcare leave
2002 "Plus One" plan announced by the government, encouraging fathers to take five-day paternity leave following childbirth
2003 Japanese government passed "Next Generation" law and "Law for Measures to Support the Development of the Next Generation." These required any business with more than 300 workers to create a "plan" for raising the fertility level of its workers
2004 government subsidies for infertility treatments begin
2006 abortion was officially made legal conditional to the mother's consent No discernible effect, but probably because the law itself didn't change reality on the ground.

Trends in period fertility

The fertility history of Japan can be subdivided into the following rough periods. Fertility history prior to 1947 relies on Gapminder, which uses the less reliable UN data, whereas fertility history 1947 onward uses the higher reliability HFD data. However, for the part 1947 onward, the Gapminder and HFD data paint a similar picture, and the only qualitative difference is that the Gapminder data fail to capture the dip in 1966.

Time period Trend in fertility Some numbers Details
1873-1901 huge increase TFR increased from 3.41 to 5.01
1901-1906 rapid decrease TFR decreased from 5.01 to 4.37
1907-1919 upward jump, followed by modest decrease TFR jumped up to 5.02 (from 4.37 the previous year), then decreased gradually to 4.77 The introduction of explicit penalties for women who have abortions in 1907 might explain the jump.
1920-1939 rapid decrease TFR decreased from 5.35 to 3.8 The sudden change between 1919 and 1920 may be attributable to the change in data source.
1939-1947 fluctuation TFR increased from 3.8 to 4.5, but with fluctuations The war years of 1944 and 1945 were particularly bad for TFR.
1947-1957 huge decrease CBR decreased from 34.65 to 17.38
TFR decreased from 4.566 to 2.058
Possibly exacerbated by the legalization of abortion in 1948. Note that the starting point of 1947 is the earliest year for which reliable data can be found, and Japan was also involved in World War II till 1945. Therefore, the relevance of legal abortion in the decline of fertility is hard to test.
1957-1973 modest decrease followed by modest increase CBR increased from 17.38 to 19.35
TFR increased from 2.058 to 2.135, dipping to about 1.9 in between
1959 was the first year with below-replacement fertility, and 1973 was the last year with above-replacement fertility
The year 1966, an inauspicious year for births, was in the middle of this period. Adjusting for the huge decline in births in these year and the subsequently slightly-above-normal value next year, we see a steady and modest increase in fertility over the period. Tightening of abortion laws is probably part of the explanation.
1973-present gradual decrease CBR decreased from 19.35 to 8.5
TFR decreased from 2.135 to 1.361
The decline was not steady, with small upticks in a few years, including what may be a more long-term rebound 2005-2009 (further data would be necessary to verify that). But the overall direction of decline is pretty strong. For a discussion of reasons, see explanations for fertility trends in Japan since 1973.


Trends in completed fertility

Range of birth cohorts Trend in fertility Some numbers Details
1932-1944 stayed roughly steady, declining and then bouncing back CCF decreased from 2.06 to 2.035
CCF40 decreased from 2.047 to 2.027
The fertility seems to have gone up a bit for the cohorts born during World War II, but the overall variation is too little. Mean CCF for the period is 2.036 and standard deviation is 0.023.
1945-1959 stayed roughly steady, but lower than the 1932-1944 level CCF increased from 1.851 to 1.87
CCF40 increased from 1.842 to 1.85
Mean CCF was 1.95 and standard deviation 0.049.
Mean CCF40 was 1.94 and standard deviation 0.049.
1959-1969 rapid decline CCF data unavailable
CCF40 decreased from 1.85 to 1.444
Slope for rate of decline using linear regression estimate is -0.04.


Key quantitative metrics

Unless otherwise specified, data is from the Human Fertility Database, last updated August 2012.

The "Year" column below gives the period year for period measures, and the birth cohort year for cohort measures. With the exception of the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate, all latest period measures are for 2009. Latest cohort measures are 1959 or 1969, the former for the completed measures and the latter for the under-40 measures.

Metric Direct fertility measure, comparable with replacement fertility value of 2.1? Period measure or cohort measure? Most recent measurement Year Data year range, with link to data Maximum in range Minimum in range
crude birth rate (CBR) No Period 8.5 2009 1947-2009 34.65
(1947)
8.43
2005
total fertility rate (TFR) Yes Period 1.361 2009 1947-2009 4.566
(1947)
1.254
(2005)
TFR40 Yes(ish) Period 1.324 2009 1947-2009 4.252
1947
1.228
(2005)
CBR proportions by birth order No Period birth orders 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (and more) (respectively): 0.479, 0.365, 0.126, 0.024, 0.007 2009 1968-2009
TFR proportions by birth order No Period birth orders 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (and more) (respectively): 0.495, 0.357, 0.118, 0.022, 0.007 2009 1968-2009
Completed cohort fertility Yes Cohort 1.87 1959 1932-1959 2.071
(1941
cohort)
1.851
(1945
cohort)
CCF40 Yes(ish) Cohort 1.444 1969 1932-1969 2.062
(1941
cohort)
1.444
(1969
cohort)
Mean age at birth No Period 30.44 2009 1947-2009 30.47
(1947)
27.47
(1975)
Cohort mean age at birth No Cohort 28.64 1959 1953-1959 28.64
(1959
cohort)
27.92
(1953
cohort)
Cohort mean age at birth for birth cohorts till the age of 40 (CMAB40) No Cohort 29.55 1969 1953-1969 29.55
(1969)
27.82
(1953)
Tempo-adjusted total fertility rate (period measure) Yes Period 1.512 2008 1969-2008 2.045
(1969)
1.369
(2005)

Period fertility

Further information: period fertility in Japan


Year CBR (births per 1000 people per year) CBR minus previous year's CBR TFR (sum of all age-specific fertility rates), ballpark for replacement fertility is 2.1 TFR minus previous year's TFR TFR40 (sum of age-specific fertility rates up to the age of 40), almost equal to TFR because births above the age of 40 are rare TFR40 minus previous year's TFR40
1947 34.65 4.566 4.252
1948 (passage of Eugenic Protection Law permitting abortion and facilitating provision of fmaily planning services) 33.95 -0.7 4.444 -0.122 4.132 -0.12
1949 33.42 -0.53 4.357 -0.087 4.101 -0.031
1950 28.42 -5 3.672 -0.685 3.486 -0.615
1951 25.55 -2.87 3.281 -0.391 3.13 -0.356
1952 23.6 -1.95 2.995 -0.286 2.874 -0.256
1953 21.67 -1.93 2.713 -0.282 2.617 -0.257
1954 20.27 -1.4 2.502 -0.211 2.423 -0.194
1955 19.58 -0.69 2.383 -0.119 2.316 -0.107
1956 18.63 -0.95 2.236 -0.147 2.18 -0.136
1957 17.38 -1.25 2.058 -0.178 2.013 -0.167
1958 18.18 0.8 2.129 0.071 2.089 0.076
1959 (first year with TFR below replacement fertility) 17.71 -0.47 2.061 -0.068 2.027 -0.062
1960 17.33 -0.38 2.008 -0.053 1.98 -0.047
1961 16.99 -0.34 1.963 -0.045 1.94 -0.04
1962 17.14 0.15 1.974 0.011 1.954 0.014
1963 17.4 0.26 2.001 0.027 1.983 0.029
1964 17.81 0.41 2.045 0.044 2.028 0.045
1965 18.72 0.91 2.145 0.1 2.129 0.101
1966 (inauspicious year for births) 13.85 -4.87 1.579 -0.566 1.565 -0.564
1967 19.49 5.64 2.224 0.645 2.21 0.645
1968 18.63 -0.86 2.127 -0.097 2.112 -0.098
1969 18.58 -0.05 2.119 -0.008 2.105 -0.007
1970 18.8 0.22 2.129 0.01 2.115 0.01
1971 19.21 0.41 2.153 0.024 2.139 0.024
1972 19.3 0.09 2.138 -0.015 2.125 -0.014
1973 (last year with TFR above the replacement fertility level; also, first year with new data collection modality) 19.35 0.05 2.135 -0.003 2.121 -0.004
1974 18.52 -0.83 2.04 -0.095 2.028 -0.093
1975 17.14 -1.38 1.9 -0.14 1.889 -0.139
1976 16.34 -0.8 1.84 -0.06 1.83 -0.059
1977 15.5 -0.84 1.786 -0.054 1.776 -0.054
1978 14.95 -0.55 1.774 -0.012 1.765 -0.011
1979 14.25 -0.7 1.751 -0.023 1.742 -0.023
1980 13.57 -0.68 1.731 -0.02 1.722 -0.02
1981 13.07 -0.5 1.726 -0.005 1.718 -0.004
1982 12.86 -0.21 1.755 0.029 1.746 0.028
1983 12.72 -0.14 1.788 0.033 1.779 0.033
1984 12.48 -0.24 1.8 0.012 1.79 0.011
1985 11.92 -0.56 1.757 -0.043 1.747 -0.043
1986 11.45 -0.47 1.719 -0.038 1.709 -0.038
1987 11.1 -0.35 1.689 -0.03 1.68 -0.029
1988 10.79 -0.31 1.657 -0.032 1.647 -0.033
1989 10.2 -0.59 1.576 -0.081 1.565 -0.082
1990 9.96 -0.24 1.543 -0.033 1.531 -0.034
1991 9.95 -0.01 1.537 -0.006 1.525 -0.006
1992 9.8 -0.15 1.506 -0.031 1.493 -0.032
1993 9.61 -0.19 1.464 -0.042 1.451 -0.042
1994 9.98 0.37 1.507 0.043 1.493 0.042
1995 9.55 -0.43 1.426 -0.081 1.411 -0.082
1996 9.68 0.13 1.43 0.004 1.414 0.003
1997 9.54 -0.14 1.392 -0.038 1.376 -0.038
1998 9.61 0.07 1.388 -0.004 1.371 -0.005
1999 9.39 -0.22 1.347 -0.041 1.329 -0.042
2000 9.49 0.1 1.359 0.012 1.339 0.01
2001 9.31 -0.18 1.336 -0.023 1.316 -0.023
2002 9.16 -0.15 1.318 -0.018 1.297 -0.019
2003 8.91 -0.25 1.29 -0.028 1.266 -0.031
2004 8.81 -0.1 1.288 -0.002 1.263 -0.003
2005 8.43 -0.38 1.254 -0.034 1.228 -0.035
2006 8.67 0.24 1.313 0.059 1.285 0.057
2007 8.64 -0.03 1.331 0.018 1.299 0.014
2008 8.66 0.02 1.36 0.029 1.326 0.027
2009 8.5 -0.16 1.361 0.001 1.324 -0.002
Maximum 34.65
(1947)
5.64
(1967)
4.566
(1947)
0.645
(1967)
4.252
(1947)
0.645
(1967)
Minimum 8.43
(2005)
-5
(1950)
1.254
(2005)
-0.685
(1950)
1.228
(2005)
-0.615
(1950)
Average (arithmetic mean) 15.366984127 -0.4217741935 1.971047619 -0.0516935484 1.9304126984 -0.0472258065
Geometric mean 14.2564922903 1.8716644672 1.8411780514
Median 14.25 -0.245 1.786 -0.029 1.776 -0.03
Standard deviation 6.3600331291 1.2910175478 0.7350500406 0.1619209065 0.6754908761 0.1543309643
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) -0.3094743664 0.0196975649 -0.0323055876 0.0031489764 -0.0303344854 0.0027210597
Multiplier for best log-linear fit (using linear regression on the logarithm) 0.9803430789 0.985175264 0.985546664
for linear regression 0.7955544081 0.075772529 0.6490239958 0.1231073376 0.6776002642 0.1011861286


Completed fertility

Further information: completed fertility in Japan


Cohort CCF CCF minus previous year's CCF CCF40 CCF40 minus previous year's CCF40
1932 2.06 2.047
1933 2.035 -0.025 2.024 -0.023
1934 2.008 -0.027 1.998 -0.026
1935 2.045 0.037 2.035 0.037
1936 2.035 -0.01 2.026 -0.009
1937 2.051 0.016 2.042 0.016
1938 2.009 -0.042 2.001 -0.041
1939 1.985 -0.024 1.976 -0.025
1940 2.052 0.067 2.043 0.067
1941 2.071 0.019 2.062 0.019
1942 2.031 -0.04 2.022 -0.04
1943 2.053 0.022 2.044 0.022
1944 2.036 -0.017 2.027 -0.017
1945 1.851 -0.185 1.842 -0.185
1946 1.905 0.054 1.896 0.054
1947 2.021 0.116 2.01 0.114
1948 1.987 -0.034 1.976 -0.034
1949 1.992 0.005 1.98 0.004
1950 1.969 -0.023 1.956 -0.024
1951 1.962 -0.007 1.949 -0.007
1952 1.982 0.02 1.968 0.019
1953 1.987 0.005 1.973 0.005
1954 1.983 -0.004 1.968 -0.005
1955 1.977 -0.006 1.961 -0.007
1956 1.946 -0.031 1.929 -0.032
1957 1.918 -0.028 1.9 -0.029
1958 1.909 -0.009 1.89 -0.01
1959 1.87 -0.039 1.85 -0.04
1960 unavailable 1.805 -0.045
1961 unavailable 1.762 -0.043
1962 unavailable 1.719 -0.043
1963 unavailable 1.672 -0.047
1964 unavailable 1.66 -0.012
1965 unavailable 1.595 -0.065
1966 unavailable 1.493 -0.102
1967 unavailable 1.506 0.013
1968 unavailable 1.497 -0.009
1969 unavailable 1.444 -0.053
Mean (1932-1959) 1.9903571429 -0.007037037 1.9783928571 -0.0072962963
Median (1932-1959) 1.9895 -0.009 1.978 -0.009
Standard deviation (1932-1959) 0.0582747098 0.0509467909 0.0602871765 0.0507488649
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1932-1959) -0.004805145 -0.0004334554 -0.0051409414 -0.000510989
-- goodness of linear fit (square of the correlation) as a function of time 0.4600738487 0.0045603249 0.4920510998 0.0063872072
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1932-1959) 0.997579501 0.9973921665
Mean (1960-1969) 1.6153 -0.0406
Median (1960-1969) 1.6275 -0.044
Standard deviation (1960-1969) 0.1265473561 0.0321116109
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1960-1969) -0.0410363636 0.0013818182
-- goodness of linear fit (square of the correlation) as a function of time 0.9639245164 0.01697419
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1960-1969) 0.9749241926


Mean age at birth by period

Mean age at birth

Year Mean age at birth (all birth orders) MAB1 MAB2 MAB3 MAB4 MAB5+ MAB40 MAB40_1 MAB40_2 MAB40_3 MAB40_4 MAB40_5+
1947 30.47 29.59
1948 30.19 29.28
1949 29.92 29.16
1950 29.62 28.95
1951 29.54 28.94
1952 29.38 28.85
1953 29.2 28.73
1954 29.03 28.61
1955 28.85 28.47
1956 28.64 28.3
1957 28.44 28.14
1958 28.22 27.96
1959 28.06 27.83
1960 27.89 27.69
1961 27.81 27.63
1962 27.71 27.56
1963 27.71 27.58
1964 27.7 27.58
1965 27.7 27.59
1966 27.66 27.53
1967 27.76 27.67
1968 27.79 25.9 28.58 30.72 32.56 35.8 27.69 25.84 28.53 30.62 32.2 34.38
1969 27.8 25.87 28.53 30.74 32.54 35.69 27.7 25.81 28.48 30.64 32.2 34.3
1970 27.76 25.81 28.48 30.77 32.56 35.51 27.67 25.76 28.43 30.67 32.22 34.19
1971 27.74 25.75 28.43 30.73 32.55 35.36 27.65 25.7 28.37 30.63 32.23 34.09
1972 27.66 25.67 28.36 30.69 32.51 35.38 27.57 25.61 28.3 30.59 32.18 34.16
1973 27.64 25.63 28.28 30.65 32.46 35.16 27.55 25.58 28.22 30.55 32.15 34.08
1974 27.54 25.62 28.18 30.59 32.49 35.3 27.45 25.57 28.13 30.49 32.17 34.1
1975 27.47 25.68 28.16 30.51 32.46 35.26 27.39 25.63 28.11 30.4 32.13 34.11
1976 27.49 25.76 28.15 30.43 32.35 35.29 27.41 25.71 28.1 30.33 32.01 34.08
1977 27.58 25.88 28.21 30.39 32.33 35.29 27.5 25.83 28.17 30.29 32 34.07
1978 27.65 25.95 28.28 30.39 32.36 35.19 27.57 25.91 28.23 30.3 32.01 34
1979 27.7 26.01 28.36 30.41 32.29 35.33 27.63 25.97 28.32 30.33 31.95 34.08
1980 27.75 26.07 28.44 30.51 32.35 35.21 27.68 26.03 28.39 30.43 32.02 33.96
1981 27.83 26.16 28.54 30.62 32.39 35.16 27.76 26.12 28.49 30.54 32.04 33.93
1982 27.92 26.24 28.59 30.73 32.5 35.17 27.85 26.19 28.55 30.64 32.16 33.96
1983 28.02 26.3 28.68 30.86 32.6 35.12 27.95 26.26 28.64 30.78 32.29 33.92
1984 28.12 26.37 28.74 30.94 32.73 35.08 28.05 26.33 28.7 30.85 32.4 33.96
1985 28.26 26.5 28.83 31.02 32.83 35.09 28.19 26.46 28.78 30.93 32.51 34.02
1986 28.38 26.64 28.92 31.11 32.95 35.05 28.31 26.6 28.87 31.03 32.64 33.97
1987 28.52 26.78 29.03 31.23 32.99 35.24 28.45 26.74 28.97 31.14 32.68 34.2
1988 28.68 26.9 29.17 31.35 33.21 35.26 28.59 26.85 29.11 31.25 32.88 34.2
1989 28.81 27.03 29.32 31.5 33.32 35.29 28.72 26.97 29.25 31.39 32.97 34.28
1990 28.94 27.15 29.46 31.62 33.43 35.33 28.84 27.09 29.38 31.51 33.1 34.35
1991 29 27.23 29.58 31.75 33.53 35.36 28.9 27.17 29.5 31.63 33.16 34.39
1992 29.09 27.37 29.67 31.87 33.68 35.43 28.99 27.31 29.59 31.74 33.29 34.45
1993 29.19 27.51 29.79 32 33.78 35.54 29.08 27.44 29.7 31.85 33.36 34.55
1994 29.29 27.64 29.9 32.09 33.88 35.64 29.18 27.57 29.81 31.93 33.44 34.6
1995 29.39 27.75 30 32.16 33.96 35.73 29.26 27.68 29.9 31.98 33.48 34.65
1996 29.5 27.89 30.14 32.23 34.01 35.72 29.37 27.8 30.04 32.05 33.5 34.66
1997 29.57 27.95 30.26 32.32 34.05 35.72 29.43 27.85 30.15 32.11 33.53 34.58
1998 29.63 27.99 30.38 32.4 34.12 35.91 29.47 27.89 30.27 32.18 33.54 34.66
1999 29.65 28.01 30.49 32.47 34.18 35.81 29.48 27.9 30.36 32.24 33.58 34.57
2000 29.68 28.03 30.54 32.55 34.29 35.79 29.5 27.92 30.4 32.3 33.65 34.57
2001 29.68 28.05 30.54 32.59 34.33 35.81 29.49 27.93 30.39 32.33 33.68 34.59
2002 29.71 28.15 30.59 32.64 34.35 35.94 29.51 28.02 30.43 32.35 33.65 34.61
2003 29.83 28.36 30.61 32.61 34.34 35.91 29.61 28.21 30.44 32.3 33.61 34.65
2004 29.93 28.51 30.69 32.59 34.26 35.92 29.7 28.35 30.5 32.27 33.53 34.59
2005 30 28.63 30.76 32.53 34.2 35.86 29.76 28.45 30.55 32.19 33.46 34.48
2006 30.09 28.72 30.88 32.55 34.12 35.77 29.84 28.53 30.66 32.19 33.34 34.39
2007 30.24 28.87 31.02 32.59 34.03 35.62 29.96 28.66 30.78 32.22 33.24 34.25
2008 30.31 28.95 31.09 32.58 33.93 35.55 30.02 28.73 30.83 32.21 33.13 34.18
2009 30.44 29.13 31.22 32.64 33.89 35.33 30.13 28.89 30.93 32.25 33.13 33.98
Average (1968-2009) 28.7445238095 27.0573809524 29.4254761905 31.515952381 33.2783333333 35.4742857143 28.6154761905 26.9728571429 29.3273809524 31.3488095238 32.82 34.2807142857
Median (1968-2009) 28.745 26.965 29.245 31.425 33.265 35.37 28.655 26.91 29.18 31.32 32.925 34.225
Standard deviation (1968-2009) 0.9693427554 1.1172135624 1.0141900586 0.8534751329 0.7638890121 0.2786390519 0.9102082377 1.0695572043 0.9542512312 0.7685564625 0.628086525 0.2520490937
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) 0.0766850336 0.0893955109 0.079628069 0.0656907868 0.0573608298 0.0126505145 0.072007941 0.085704562 0.0749380115 0.0586330119 0.0451438295 0.0116351997
Multiplier for best logarithm fit (using linear fit on logarithm) 1.0026655941 1.003298838 1.002699542 1.0020836461 1.0017242967 1.000356136 1.002516574 1.0031751711 1.0025509791 1.0018713788 1.0013775446 1.000338998
R^2 for linear regression 0.9418960745 0.963597186 0.9277483064 0.8915869093 0.8486074179 0.3102193711 0.9419237822 0.9663542144 0.9281440216 0.8759298983 0.7774891586 0.3207110369

Standard deviation in age of birth

Year sdMAB sdMAB1 sdMAB2 sdMAB3 sdMAB4 sdMAB5+ sdMAB40 sdMAB40_1 sdMAB40_2 sdMAB40_3 sdMAB40_4 sdMAB40_5+
1947 6.03 5.22
1948 6.14 5.33
1949 5.91 5.2
1950 5.77 5.12
1951 5.63 5.03
1952 5.49 4.92
1953 5.36 4.84
1954 5.25 4.76
1955 5.12 4.67
1956 5.01 4.58
1957 4.85 4.45
1958 4.71 4.34
1959 4.59 4.24
1960 4.42 4.11
1961 4.29 4.02
1962 4.19 3.95
1963 4.14 3.92
1964 4.1 3.9
1965 4.06 3.88
1966 4.22 4.01
1967 3.99 3.84
1968 4.03 3.52 3.43 3.45 3.84 4.41 3.87 3.4 3.33 3.3 3.42 3.4
1969 4.03 3.52 3.44 3.45 3.8 4.42 3.87 3.39 3.34 3.31 3.41 3.39
1970 4.03 3.51 3.43 3.45 3.82 4.4 3.88 3.38 3.32 3.3 3.43 3.42
1971 4.02 3.51 3.4 3.43 3.79 4.39 3.87 3.38 3.29 3.28 3.42 3.43
1972 4.03 3.49 3.39 3.42 3.81 4.34 3.87 3.36 3.29 3.28 3.43 3.43
1973 4.03 3.48 3.41 3.42 3.79 4.25 3.88 3.35 3.31 3.28 3.43 3.41
1974 4 3.45 3.4 3.43 3.85 4.36 3.85 3.33 3.3 3.28 3.48 3.48
1975 3.94 3.45 3.37 3.48 3.92 4.34 3.8 3.33 3.27 3.32 3.56 3.5
1976 3.88 3.43 3.32 3.45 3.96 4.39 3.74 3.32 3.23 3.3 3.57 3.54
1977 3.84 3.43 3.3 3.43 3.92 4.41 3.7 3.32 3.21 3.27 3.54 3.53
1978 3.81 3.42 3.27 3.36 3.94 4.42 3.68 3.32 3.19 3.21 3.54 3.6
1979 3.8 3.42 3.26 3.32 3.9 4.45 3.67 3.33 3.18 3.19 3.51 3.58
1980 3.81 3.45 3.27 3.31 3.86 4.48 3.69 3.36 3.19 3.16 3.49 3.64
1981 3.84 3.48 3.31 3.29 3.86 4.47 3.72 3.39 3.23 3.15 3.46 3.61
1982 3.86 3.5 3.33 3.28 3.81 4.41 3.74 3.41 3.24 3.14 3.42 3.53
1983 3.89 3.55 3.34 3.28 3.74 4.37 3.77 3.46 3.26 3.14 3.38 3.48
1984 3.92 3.58 3.38 3.28 3.72 4.3 3.8 3.49 3.3 3.14 3.34 3.46
1985 3.94 3.63 3.42 3.31 3.69 4.24 3.82 3.54 3.33 3.17 3.32 3.42
1986 3.96 3.66 3.46 3.31 3.7 4.24 3.85 3.57 3.38 3.19 3.36 3.4
1987 3.98 3.69 3.47 3.34 3.7 4.18 3.86 3.6 3.38 3.21 3.36 3.39
1988 4.02 3.75 3.51 3.36 3.68 4.17 3.9 3.65 3.42 3.22 3.33 3.36
1989 4.09 3.82 3.57 3.41 3.67 4.15 3.96 3.72 3.47 3.26 3.31 3.4
1990 4.14 3.89 3.61 3.44 3.67 4.04 4 3.79 3.5 3.28 3.33 3.32
1991 4.18 3.93 3.65 3.47 3.73 4.1 4.04 3.82 3.54 3.3 3.36 3.41
1992 4.23 3.98 3.73 3.52 3.75 4.09 4.09 3.88 3.61 3.35 3.39 3.4
1993 4.27 4.04 3.77 3.57 3.78 4.06 4.13 3.93 3.66 3.38 3.38 3.39
1994 4.32 4.1 3.82 3.64 3.84 4.12 4.17 3.99 3.7 3.44 3.44 3.45
1995 4.38 4.18 3.88 3.71 3.9 4.08 4.22 4.07 3.75 3.5 3.48 3.36
1996 4.42 4.24 3.92 3.75 3.95 4.08 4.25 4.12 3.79 3.54 3.52 3.39
1997 4.49 4.34 3.98 3.82 3.99 4.21 4.32 4.2 3.84 3.59 3.55 3.46
1998 4.56 4.42 4.04 3.85 4.06 4.23 4.38 4.28 3.89 3.62 3.58 3.44
1999 4.64 4.5 4.1 3.9 4.11 4.27 4.45 4.36 3.94 3.67 3.64 3.5
2000 4.73 4.61 4.17 3.95 4.14 4.26 4.53 4.46 4.01 3.7 3.65 3.5
2001 4.81 4.71 4.27 4.03 4.16 4.27 4.61 4.55 4.1 3.78 3.66 3.51
2002 4.88 4.79 4.35 4.1 4.26 4.32 4.67 4.62 4.17 3.83 3.74 3.54
2003 4.91 4.85 4.43 4.19 4.32 4.29 4.68 4.66 4.24 3.9 3.79 3.52
2004 4.94 4.91 4.49 4.27 4.36 4.34 4.71 4.71 4.29 3.98 3.83 3.58
2005 4.96 4.94 4.54 4.33 4.43 4.46 4.72 4.72 4.33 4.03 3.9 3.66
2006 4.98 4.96 4.56 4.37 4.53 4.54 4.73 4.74 4.34 4.06 3.97 3.76
2007 5.01 5 4.6 4.4 4.59 4.61 4.74 4.77 4.37 4.08 4.03 3.8
2008 5.04 5.04 4.65 4.42 4.61 4.59 4.76 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.03 3.77
2009 5.06 5.07 4.68 4.43 4.59 4.68 4.77 4.81 4.41 4.1 4.04 3.84
Average (1968-2009) 4.2785714286 4.0057142857 3.7552380952 3.6528571429 3.9652380952 4.315 4.1133333333 3.8733333333 3.6271428571 3.4602380952 3.5433333333 3.5
Median (1968-2009) 4.06 3.785 3.54 3.45 3.86 4.33 3.93 3.685 3.445 3.3 3.48 3.47
Standard deviation (1968-2009) 0.4227065604 0.5798786368 0.4657552906 0.37805204 0.2774556708 0.1566143313 0.3781512581 0.5407387299 0.4160574873 0.3143439789 0.209210673 0.124997561
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) 0.030493477 0.0444469654 0.0345887691 0.0258844502 0.0163017584 -5.75318045539274E-005 0.0276282311 0.0418928774 0.031131999 0.0213151284 0.0117591767 0.0046657483
Multiplier for best logarithm fit (using linear fit on logarithm) 1.0069625637 1.0108694208 1.0089693165 1.0068332117 1.003954279 0.9999561218 1.006588887 1.0106470664 1.0083893499 1.0059586687 1.0032032028 1.0012951305
R^2 for linear regression 0.7831995317 0.8841918579 0.8300249014 0.7055230676 0.5195390451 0.000020309 0.8033625099 0.9033206291 0.8426434174 0.69199366 0.4754694981 0.2096891884

Mean age of childbearing by cohort

Cohort Mean age of childbearing (all birth orders), CMAC CMAC1 CMAC2 CMAC3 CMAC4 CMAC5+ CMAC40 CMAC40_1 CMAC40_2 CMAC40_3 CMAC40_4 CMAC40_5+
1953 27.92 26.03 28.57 31.12 33.08 34.97 27.82 25.96 28.49 30.99 32.64 33.88
1954 28.07 26.18 28.7 31.21 33.22 35.2 27.96 26.12 28.62 31.07 32.77 34.07
1955 28.22 26.35 28.84 31.3 33.34 35.31 28.1 26.28 28.76 31.16 32.88 34.2
1956 28.35 26.51 28.97 31.38 33.43 35.36 28.23 26.43 28.88 31.23 32.95 34.25
1957 28.47 26.67 29.09 31.45 33.5 35.47 28.35 26.58 29 31.29 33.03 34.34
1958 28.55 26.78 29.18 31.5 33.54 35.53 28.42 26.69 29.08 31.34 33.07 34.39
1959 28.64 26.89 29.27 31.55 33.61 35.55 28.49 26.79 29.15 31.38 33.11 34.42
1960 28.59 26.92 29.27 31.44 33.16 34.44
1961 28.7 27.06 29.4 31.49 33.21 34.53
1962 28.8 27.21 29.52 31.55 33.22 34.5
1963 28.92 27.37 29.66 31.64 33.23 34.49
1964 29.05 27.54 29.82 31.73 33.27 34.47
1965 29.15 27.68 29.94 31.77 33.29 34.47
1966 29.25 27.81 30.06 31.83 33.28 34.47
1967 29.36 27.94 30.18 31.93 33.29 34.45
1968 29.45 28.06 30.3 32.01 33.36 34.48
1969 29.55 28.17 30.4 32.09 33.42 34.52

Tempo-adjusted total fertility rate

The tempo-adjusted total fertility rates have been computed using the Bongarts-Feeney formula below.

Year AdjTFR AdjTFR1 AdjTFR2 AdjTFR3 AdjTFR4 AdjTFR5+ AdjTFR1 proportion AdjTFR2 proportion AdjTFR3 proportion AdjTFR4 proportion AdjTFR5+ proportion
1969 2.045 0.898 0.801 0.281 0.048 0.017 0.4391198044 0.3916870416 0.137408313 0.0234718826 0.0083129584
1970 2.033 0.886 0.801 0.283 0.048 0.016 0.435809149 0.3939990162 0.1392031481 0.0236104279 0.0078701426
1971 2.027 0.866 0.81 0.286 0.047 0.017 0.4272323631 0.3996053281 0.1410952146 0.0231869758 0.0083867785
1972 2.012 0.882 0.779 0.288 0.047 0.016 0.4383697813 0.3871769384 0.1431411531 0.023359841 0.0079522863
1973 2.031 0.904 0.763 0.295 0.051 0.018 0.4451009355 0.3756770064 0.145248646 0.0251107829 0.0088626292
1974 2 0.925 0.748 0.265 0.045 0.017 0.4625 0.374 0.1325 0.0225 0.0085
1975 1.93 0.918 0.746 0.218 0.034 0.014 0.4756476684 0.3865284974 0.1129533679 0.0176165803 0.007253886
1976 1.936 0.909 0.767 0.213 0.032 0.013 0.4695247934 0.396177686 0.1100206612 0.0165289256 0.006714876
1977 1.915 0.87 0.78 0.22 0.033 0.012 0.454308094 0.407310705 0.1148825065 0.017232376 0.0062663185
1978 1.89 0.831 0.786 0.23 0.031 0.012 0.4396825397 0.4158730159 0.1216931217 0.0164021164 0.0063492063
1979 1.876 0.82 0.769 0.245 0.03 0.01 0.4371002132 0.4099147122 0.1305970149 0.0159914712 0.0053304904
1980 1.885 0.84 0.75 0.254 0.032 0.009 0.4456233422 0.3978779841 0.1347480106 0.0169761273 0.0047745358
1981 1.884 0.857 0.729 0.256 0.033 0.009 0.4548832272 0.3869426752 0.135881104 0.0175159236 0.0047770701
1982 1.906 0.853 0.738 0.27 0.036 0.009 0.4475341028 0.3871983211 0.1416579224 0.018887723 0.0047219307
1983 1.937 0.866 0.748 0.276 0.038 0.009 0.4470831182 0.3861641714 0.1424883841 0.0196179659 0.0046463604
1984 1.97 0.886 0.755 0.279 0.04 0.009 0.4497461929 0.383248731 0.1416243655 0.0203045685 0.0045685279
1985 1.97 0.877 0.759 0.285 0.04 0.009 0.445177665 0.3852791878 0.1446700508 0.0203045685 0.0045685279
1986 1.95 0.864 0.748 0.29 0.039 0.01 0.4430769231 0.3835897436 0.1487179487 0.02 0.0051282051
1987 1.934 0.832 0.755 0.296 0.041 0.01 0.430196484 0.3903826267 0.1530506722 0.0211995863 0.0051706308
1988 1.914 0.8 0.757 0.304 0.044 0.009 0.4179728318 0.3955067921 0.1588296761 0.0229885057 0.0047021944
1989 1.815 0.768 0.708 0.29 0.041 0.009 0.4231404959 0.3900826446 0.1597796143 0.0225895317 0.0049586777
1990 1.745 0.737 0.675 0.281 0.042 0.009 0.4223495702 0.3868194842 0.1610315186 0.0240687679 0.0051575931
1991 1.731 0.766 0.644 0.271 0.042 0.009 0.4425187753 0.3720392837 0.1565569035 0.0242634315 0.0051993068
1992 1.72 0.79 0.623 0.256 0.042 0.009 0.4593023256 0.3622093023 0.1488372093 0.0244186047 0.0052325581
1993 1.671 0.777 0.608 0.238 0.038 0.009 0.4649910233 0.3638539797 0.1424296828 0.0227408737 0.0053859964
1994 1.693 0.794 0.619 0.23 0.04 0.01 0.4689899587 0.3656231542 0.1358535145 0.0236266982 0.0059066745
1995 1.606 0.754 0.593 0.212 0.038 0.009 0.4694894147 0.3692403487 0.1320049813 0.0236612702 0.0056039851
1996 1.597 0.732 0.611 0.21 0.035 0.009 0.4583594239 0.3825923607 0.131496556 0.0219160927 0.0056355667
1997 1.519 0.687 0.588 0.201 0.034 0.01 0.4522712311 0.3870967742 0.1323238973 0.0223831468 0.0065832785
1998 1.492 0.68 0.578 0.193 0.033 0.009 0.4557640751 0.3873994638 0.1293565684 0.0221179625 0.0060321716
1999 1.418 0.666 0.532 0.181 0.032 0.008 0.4696755994 0.3751763047 0.1276445698 0.0225669958 0.0056417489
2000 1.4 0.674 0.51 0.176 0.032 0.008 0.4814285714 0.3642857143 0.1257142857 0.0228571429 0.0057142857
2001 1.398 0.695 0.498 0.167 0.03 0.009 0.4971387697 0.356223176 0.1194563662 0.0214592275 0.0064377682
2002 1.457 0.778 0.492 0.152 0.027 0.008 0.533973919 0.3376801647 0.1043239533 0.0185312286 0.0054907344
2003 1.451 0.779 0.498 0.142 0.025 0.008 0.5368711234 0.3432115782 0.0978635424 0.0172294969 0.005513439
2004 1.42 0.738 0.514 0.136 0.024 0.007 0.5197183099 0.361971831 0.0957746479 0.0169014085 0.0049295775
2005 1.369 0.692 0.511 0.136 0.023 0.007 0.5054784514 0.373265157 0.0993425858 0.0168005844 0.0051132213
2006 1.476 0.736 0.555 0.153 0.024 0.007 0.4986449864 0.3760162602 0.1036585366 0.0162601626 0.0047425474
2007 1.474 0.741 0.541 0.159 0.025 0.007 0.5027137042 0.3670284939 0.1078697422 0.0169606513 0.0047489824
2008 1.512 0.767 0.543 0.167 0.028 0.008 0.5072751323 0.3591269841 0.1104497354 0.0185185185 0.0052910053
Mean 1.750225 0.803375 0.66825 0.232125 0.0361 0.01035 0.4618946022 0.380377066 0.1313044923 0.0205669536 0.0058544169
Median 1.8455 0.797 0.7185 0.2415 0.0355 0.009 0.4545956606 0.3844344657 0.1336240053 0.0213294069 0.0054383654
Standard deviation 0.2292455282 0.0763375391 0.1079023181 0.0528773072 0.0074551651 0.0031341788 0.0302267785 0.0168703565 0.0179891874 0.0029024389 0.0012288164
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) -0.018332364 -0.0055712008 -0.0086386492 -0.0034464353 -0.0004414634 -0.0002223265 0.001791493 -0.0009922883 -0.0006900574 -4.10824401118291E-005 -6.10066483665693E-005
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) 0.9893212128 0.9930591068 0.9867216718 0.9836514642 0.9873868089 0.9803553931 1.0037782411 0.9973723994 0.9942690518 0.998044716 0.9909374027

Fertility and mortality: the story for surviving kids

A "surviving kids per woman" value of about 2 suggests that the population remains near-constant in the long run.

Year TFR Surviving kids per woman Survival ratio (fraction of kids surviving to age 35)
1800 4.08032 2.0538143745 0.503346398
1801 2.0684248428
1802 2.0830353106
1803 2.0976457789
1804 2.1122562471
1805 2.1268667149
1806 2.1414771832
1807 2.1560876515
1808 2.1706981193
1809 2.1853085875
1810 2.1999190558
1811 2.2145295236
1812 4.42864 2.2291399919 0.503346398
1813 2.231307479
1814 2.2334749661
1815 2.2356424532
1816 2.2378099398
1817 2.2399774269
1818 2.242144914
1819 2.2443124011
1820 2.2464798882
1821 2.2486473753
1822 2.2508148619
1823 2.252982349
1824 2.2551498361
1825 2.2573173232
1826 2.2594848103
1827 2.2616522974
1828 2.2638197845
1829 2.2659872711
1830 2.2681547583
1831 2.2703222454
1832 2.2724897325
1833 2.2746572196
1834 2.2768247067
1835 2.2789921933
1836 2.2811596804
1837 2.2833271675
1838 4.5406 2.2854946546 0.503346398
1839 2.2915058186
1840 2.2975169826
1841 2.3035281467
1842 2.3095393107
1843 2.3155504747
1844 2.3215616387
1845 2.3275728028
1846 2.3335839668
1847 2.3395951308
1848 2.3456062948
1849 2.3516174588
1850 2.3576286229
1851 2.3636397869
1852 2.3696509509
1853 2.3756621149
1854 2.381673279
1855 2.387684443
1856 2.393695607
1857 2.399706771
1858 2.4057179351
1859 2.4117290991
1860 2.4177402631
1861 2.4237514271
1862 2.4297625911
1863 4.83916 2.4357737552 0.503346398
1864 2.3640572528
1865 2.2923407505
1866 2.2206242482
1867 2.1489077463
1868 2.1406598326
1869 2.0667520322
1870 1.9928442318
1871 1.9189364314
1872 1.8450286309
1873 3.4143658113 1.7711208305 0.5187261496
1874 3.5178314419 1.8247911589 0.5187261496
1875 3.7395435076 1.9397990052 0.5187261497
1876 3.754324312 1.9474661948 0.5187261496
1877 3.6656394857 1.9014630565 0.5187261497
1878 3.5769546594 1.8554599176 0.5187261496
1879 3.5473930507 1.8401255385 0.5187261497
1880 3.5917354638 1.8631271077 0.5187261496
1881 3.7691051163 1.9551333843 0.5187261496
1882 3.6656394857 1.9014630565 0.5187261497
1883 3.9612555733 2.054806851 0.5187261496
1884 3.7986667251 1.9704677639 0.5187261496
1885 3.9760363776 2.0624740411 0.5187261497
1886 4.0351595951 2.0931427998 0.5187261496
1887 4.0351595951 2.0931427998 0.5187261496
1888 4.4342413133 2.3677171097 0.533962169
1889 4.537706944 2.4229638425 0.5339621691
1890 4.1829676389 2.2335464737 0.5339621691
1891 3.990817182 2.1309453989 0.5339621691
1892 4.4046797046 2.3519323294 0.5339621691
1893 4.2568716608 2.2730084256 0.5339621691
1894 4.3455564871 2.3203627676 0.5339621691
1895 4.3603372915 2.3282551578 0.533962169
1896 4.5081453352 2.4071790616 0.533962169
1897 4.655953379 2.4861029654 0.5339621691
1898 4.7150765965 2.5176725271 0.5339621691
1899 4.7298574009 2.5255649173 0.5339621691
1900 4.6855149878 2.5725825255 0.5490501113
1901 5.0106926841 2.7511213757 0.5490501113
1902 4.966350271 2.7267751689 0.5490501113
1903 4.8333230316 2.6537365485 0.5490501113
1904 4.6116109659 2.532005514 0.5490501113
1905 4.5229261396 2.4833131004 0.5490501113
1906 4.3751180958 2.4021590774 0.5490501113
1907 5.0254734885 2.8343028834 0.5639872322
1908 5.1289391191 2.8926561782 0.5639872323
1909 5.1585007279 2.9093285483 0.5639872323
1910 5.0106926841 2.8259666986 0.5639872323
1911 5.1880623366 2.9260009183 0.5639872323
1912 5.084596706 2.8676476235 0.5639872323
1913 5.0698159016 2.9342411744 0.5787668096
1914 5.1437199235 2.9770143689 0.5787668095
1915 4.9072270534 2.840140145 0.5787668095
1916 4.9811310753 2.8829133401 0.5787668095
1917 4.9515694666 2.8658040625 0.5787668096
1918 4.8333230316 2.8680317848 0.5933871513
1919 4.774199814 2.8329488269 0.5933871512
1920 5.35 3.1746212589 0.5933871512
1921 5.22 3.0974809293 0.5933871512
1922 5.12 3.1121511774 0.6078420268
1923 5.26 3.1972490612 0.6078420268
1924 5.07 3.1541852742 0.622127273
1925 5.22 3.2475043652 0.622127273
1926 5.19 3.3020899698 0.636240842
1927 5 3.2508682219 0.6501736444
1928 5.09 3.3093838499 0.6501736444
1929 4.87 3.1663456481 0.6501736444
1930 4.82 3.2001245759 0.6639262606
1931 4.76 3.1602890002 0.6639262606
1932 4.86 3.2266816263 0.6639262606
1933 4.63 3.1367898935 0.6774924176
1934 4.39 2.9741917133 0.6774924176
1935 4.59 3.1096901968 0.6774924176
1936 4.34 2.9983652662 0.6908675729
1937 4.45 3.0743606992 0.6908675729
1938 3.88 2.6805661827 0.6908675729
1939 3.8 2.6252967769 0.6908675729
1940 4.14 2.8601917516 0.6908675729
1941 4.36 3.0121826177 0.6908675729
1942 4.18 2.8878264545 0.6908675729
1943 4.11 2.6722136784 0.6501736444
1944 3.95 2.2277495675 0.5639872323
1945 3.11 1.3201060833 0.4244714094
1946 3.37 2.2374314981 0.6639262606
1947 4.51 3.2913641856 0.7297925024
1948 4.38 3.4620268485 0.7904170887
1949 4.3 3.4479074761 0.8018389479
1950 3.51 2.8536721626 0.8130120121
1951 3.367 2.812553737 0.8353292952
1952 3.096 2.6507399696 0.8561821607
1953 2.856 2.4455213913 0.856274997
1954 2.647 2.3172154258 0.8754119478
1955 2.468 2.1825747364 0.8843495691
1956 2.32 2.0500297119 0.8836334965
1957 2.201 1.9439936924 0.8832320274
1958 2.11 1.8832549918 0.8925379108
1959 2.044 1.8382620599 0.8993454305
1960 2.001 1.8022177058 0.9006585236
1961 1.976 1.7841955287 0.9029329599
1962 1.965 1.7913837121 0.911645655
1963 1.965 1.8069258306 0.9195551301
1964 1.97 1.8069258306 0.9172212338
1965 1.98 1.8160980429 0.9172212338
1966 1.997 1.8490678593 0.9259228139
1967 2.02 1.8675585379 0.9245339297
1968 2.048 1.9095270769 0.932386268
1969 2.077 1.9374713755 0.9328220393
1970 2.101 1.956100908 0.9310332737
1971 2.113 1.9788342091 0.9365045949
1972 2.109 1.9788342091 0.9382808009
1973 2.087 1.9600774867 0.9391842294
1974 2.048 1.93400458 0.9443381738
1975 1.997 1.8868337365 0.9448341195
1976 1.94 1.8404835047 0.9487028375
1977 1.885 1.7930483629 0.9512192906
1978 1.838 1.7541038203 0.9543546356
1979 1.802 1.7159711285 0.9522592278
1980 1.777 1.6969047826 0.9549267207
1981 1.761 1.6853812561 0.9570592028
1982 1.751 1.6758052262 0.9570560972
1983 1.741 1.6662291964 0.957052956
1984 1.73 1.6633258337 0.9614600195
1985 1.715 1.6537112335 0.9642631099
1986 1.695 1.6344820331 0.9642961847
1987 1.67 1.6112644302 0.9648290001
1988 1.641 1.5823195602 0.9642410483
1989 1.607 1.5533746902 0.9666301744
1990 1.571 1.5147815302 0.9642148505
1991 1.535 1.4858366602 0.9679717656
1992 1.499 1.4472435002 0.9654726485
1993 1.467 1.4229599729 0.9699795316
1994 1.438 1.3939199734 0.9693462958
1995 1.413 1.364879974 0.9659447799
1996 1.392 1.3455199744 0.966609177
1997 1.372 1.3301168177 0.9694728992
1998 1.354 1.3204079358 0.9751904991
1999 1.337 1.300990172 0.9730666956
2000 1.322 1.2815724083 0.9694193709
2001 1.31 1.2754038307 0.9735907104
2002 1.303 1.2656679236 0.9713491355
2003 1.3 1.2656679236 0.9735907104
2004 1.301 1.2559320165 0.9653589673
2005 1.307 1.2656679236 0.9683763761
2006 1.317 1.2689559314 0.9635200694
2007 1.329 1.2787171309 0.962164884
2008 1.343 1.2982395298 0.9666712806
2009 1.359 1.3177619288 0.9696555767
2010 1.374 1.3275231282 0.966174038
2011 1.389
2012 1.405
Mean (1873-2010) 3.3066870191 2.2263275793 0.7425261319
Median (1873-2010) 3.6656394857 2.0778084204 0.6908675729
Standard deviation (1873-2010) 1.4083658131 0.6374520353 0.1849666117
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1873-2010) -0.028899737 -0.0087381739 0.0043928812
R^2 for linear regression (1873-2010) 0.6730843202 0.3003716783 0.9016227919
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1873-2010) 0.9895231085 0.995508162 1.0060484222