Period fertility in Japan
This page gives information of type period fertility about the country Japan.
See all pages giving information on period fertility for particular countries|See all pages giving information about Japan
Data sources
Some data on this page comes from the Human Fertility Database (website www.humanfertility.org) (data downloaded December 2, 2013, last updated by HFD August 8, 2012). The data collected by the Human Fertility Database is based on government data collection by the government of Japan. You can download the data yourself here. Details about the modalities of data collection are available here. Where available, we use HFD data because of its higher reliability.
Total indicators only without breakdown by birth order
Total indicators with year-on-year differences (change measured additively)
Year | CBR (births per 1000 people per year) | CBR minus previous year's CBR | TFR (sum of all age-specific fertility rates), ballpark for replacement fertility is 2.1 | TFR minus previous year's TFR | TFR40 (sum of age-specific fertility rates up to the age of 40), almost equal to TFR because births above the age of 40 are rare | TFR40 minus previous year's TFR40 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1947 | 34.65 | 4.566 | 4.252 | |||
1948 (passage of Eugenic Protection Law permitting abortion and facilitating provision of fmaily planning services) | 33.95 | -0.7 | 4.444 | -0.122 | 4.132 | -0.12 |
1949 | 33.42 | -0.53 | 4.357 | -0.087 | 4.101 | -0.031 |
1950 | 28.42 | -5 | 3.672 | -0.685 | 3.486 | -0.615 |
1951 | 25.55 | -2.87 | 3.281 | -0.391 | 3.13 | -0.356 |
1952 | 23.6 | -1.95 | 2.995 | -0.286 | 2.874 | -0.256 |
1953 | 21.67 | -1.93 | 2.713 | -0.282 | 2.617 | -0.257 |
1954 | 20.27 | -1.4 | 2.502 | -0.211 | 2.423 | -0.194 |
1955 | 19.58 | -0.69 | 2.383 | -0.119 | 2.316 | -0.107 |
1956 | 18.63 | -0.95 | 2.236 | -0.147 | 2.18 | -0.136 |
1957 | 17.38 | -1.25 | 2.058 | -0.178 | 2.013 | -0.167 |
1958 | 18.18 | 0.8 | 2.129 | 0.071 | 2.089 | 0.076 |
1959 (first year with TFR below replacement fertility) | 17.71 | -0.47 | 2.061 | -0.068 | 2.027 | -0.062 |
1960 | 17.33 | -0.38 | 2.008 | -0.053 | 1.98 | -0.047 |
1961 | 16.99 | -0.34 | 1.963 | -0.045 | 1.94 | -0.04 |
1962 | 17.14 | 0.15 | 1.974 | 0.011 | 1.954 | 0.014 |
1963 | 17.4 | 0.26 | 2.001 | 0.027 | 1.983 | 0.029 |
1964 | 17.81 | 0.41 | 2.045 | 0.044 | 2.028 | 0.045 |
1965 | 18.72 | 0.91 | 2.145 | 0.1 | 2.129 | 0.101 |
1966 (inauspicious year for births) | 13.85 | -4.87 | 1.579 | -0.566 | 1.565 | -0.564 |
1967 | 19.49 | 5.64 | 2.224 | 0.645 | 2.21 | 0.645 |
1968 | 18.63 | -0.86 | 2.127 | -0.097 | 2.112 | -0.098 |
1969 | 18.58 | -0.05 | 2.119 | -0.008 | 2.105 | -0.007 |
1970 | 18.8 | 0.22 | 2.129 | 0.01 | 2.115 | 0.01 |
1971 | 19.21 | 0.41 | 2.153 | 0.024 | 2.139 | 0.024 |
1972 | 19.3 | 0.09 | 2.138 | -0.015 | 2.125 | -0.014 |
1973 (last year with TFR above the replacement fertility level; also, first year with new data collection modality) | 19.35 | 0.05 | 2.135 | -0.003 | 2.121 | -0.004 |
1974 | 18.52 | -0.83 | 2.04 | -0.095 | 2.028 | -0.093 |
1975 | 17.14 | -1.38 | 1.9 | -0.14 | 1.889 | -0.139 |
1976 | 16.34 | -0.8 | 1.84 | -0.06 | 1.83 | -0.059 |
1977 | 15.5 | -0.84 | 1.786 | -0.054 | 1.776 | -0.054 |
1978 | 14.95 | -0.55 | 1.774 | -0.012 | 1.765 | -0.011 |
1979 | 14.25 | -0.7 | 1.751 | -0.023 | 1.742 | -0.023 |
1980 | 13.57 | -0.68 | 1.731 | -0.02 | 1.722 | -0.02 |
1981 | 13.07 | -0.5 | 1.726 | -0.005 | 1.718 | -0.004 |
1982 | 12.86 | -0.21 | 1.755 | 0.029 | 1.746 | 0.028 |
1983 | 12.72 | -0.14 | 1.788 | 0.033 | 1.779 | 0.033 |
1984 | 12.48 | -0.24 | 1.8 | 0.012 | 1.79 | 0.011 |
1985 | 11.92 | -0.56 | 1.757 | -0.043 | 1.747 | -0.043 |
1986 | 11.45 | -0.47 | 1.719 | -0.038 | 1.709 | -0.038 |
1987 | 11.1 | -0.35 | 1.689 | -0.03 | 1.68 | -0.029 |
1988 | 10.79 | -0.31 | 1.657 | -0.032 | 1.647 | -0.033 |
1989 | 10.2 | -0.59 | 1.576 | -0.081 | 1.565 | -0.082 |
1990 | 9.96 | -0.24 | 1.543 | -0.033 | 1.531 | -0.034 |
1991 | 9.95 | -0.01 | 1.537 | -0.006 | 1.525 | -0.006 |
1992 | 9.8 | -0.15 | 1.506 | -0.031 | 1.493 | -0.032 |
1993 | 9.61 | -0.19 | 1.464 | -0.042 | 1.451 | -0.042 |
1994 | 9.98 | 0.37 | 1.507 | 0.043 | 1.493 | 0.042 |
1995 | 9.55 | -0.43 | 1.426 | -0.081 | 1.411 | -0.082 |
1996 | 9.68 | 0.13 | 1.43 | 0.004 | 1.414 | 0.003 |
1997 | 9.54 | -0.14 | 1.392 | -0.038 | 1.376 | -0.038 |
1998 | 9.61 | 0.07 | 1.388 | -0.004 | 1.371 | -0.005 |
1999 | 9.39 | -0.22 | 1.347 | -0.041 | 1.329 | -0.042 |
2000 | 9.49 | 0.1 | 1.359 | 0.012 | 1.339 | 0.01 |
2001 | 9.31 | -0.18 | 1.336 | -0.023 | 1.316 | -0.023 |
2002 | 9.16 | -0.15 | 1.318 | -0.018 | 1.297 | -0.019 |
2003 | 8.91 | -0.25 | 1.29 | -0.028 | 1.266 | -0.031 |
2004 | 8.81 | -0.1 | 1.288 | -0.002 | 1.263 | -0.003 |
2005 | 8.43 | -0.38 | 1.254 | -0.034 | 1.228 | -0.035 |
2006 | 8.67 | 0.24 | 1.313 | 0.059 | 1.285 | 0.057 |
2007 | 8.64 | -0.03 | 1.331 | 0.018 | 1.299 | 0.014 |
2008 | 8.66 | 0.02 | 1.36 | 0.029 | 1.326 | 0.027 |
2009 | 8.5 | -0.16 | 1.361 | 0.001 | 1.324 | -0.002 |
Maximum | 34.65 (1947) |
5.64 (1967) |
4.566 (1947) |
0.645 (1967) |
4.252 (1947) |
0.645 (1967) |
Minimum | 8.43 (2005) |
-5 (1950) |
1.254 (2005) |
-0.685 (1950) |
1.228 (2005) |
-0.615 (1950) |
Average (arithmetic mean) | 15.366984127 | -0.4217741935 | 1.971047619 | -0.0516935484 | 1.9304126984 | -0.0472258065 |
Geometric mean | 14.2564922903 | 1.8716644672 | 1.8411780514 | |||
Median | 14.25 | -0.245 | 1.786 | -0.029 | 1.776 | -0.03 |
Standard deviation | 6.3600331291 | 1.2910175478 | 0.7350500406 | 0.1619209065 | 0.6754908761 | 0.1543309643 |
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) | -0.3094743664 | 0.0196975649 | -0.0323055876 | 0.0031489764 | -0.0303344854 | 0.0027210597 |
Multiplier for best log-linear fit (using linear regression on the logarithm) | 0.9803430789 | 0.985175264 | 0.985546664 | |||
for linear regression | 0.7955544081 | 0.075772529 | 0.6490239958 | 0.1231073376 | 0.6776002642 | 0.1011861286 |
Crude birth rate
Crude birth rate broken down by birth order
Year | CBR | CBR1 | CBR2 | CBR3 | CBR4 | CBR5+ | CBR1 proportion | CBR2 proportion | CBR3 proportion | CBR4 proportion | CBR5+ proportion |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1947 | 34.65 | ||||||||||
1948 | 33.95 | ||||||||||
1949 | 33.42 | ||||||||||
1950 | 28.42 | ||||||||||
1951 | 25.55 | ||||||||||
1952 | 23.6 | ||||||||||
1953 | 21.67 | ||||||||||
1954 | 20.27 | ||||||||||
1955 | 19.58 | ||||||||||
1956 | 18.63 | ||||||||||
1957 | 17.38 | ||||||||||
1958 | 18.18 | ||||||||||
1959 | 17.71 | ||||||||||
1960 | 17.33 | ||||||||||
1961 | 16.99 | ||||||||||
1962 | 17.14 | ||||||||||
1963 | 17.4 | ||||||||||
1964 | 17.81 | ||||||||||
1965 | 18.72 | ||||||||||
1966 | 13.85 | ||||||||||
1967 | 19.49 | ||||||||||
1968 | 18.63 | 8.6 | 7.32 | 2.15 | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.4616210413 | 0.3929146538 | 0.1154052603 | 0.0209339775 | 0.0091250671 |
1969 | 18.58 | 8.41 | 7.32 | 2.31 | 0.39 | 0.16 | 0.4526372443 | 0.3939720129 | 0.1243272336 | 0.0209903122 | 0.0086114101 |
1970 | 18.8 | 8.55 | 7.33 | 2.39 | 0.39 | 0.15 | 0.454787234 | 0.389893617 | 0.1271276596 | 0.0207446809 | 0.0079787234 |
1971 | 19.21 | 8.65 | 7.5 | 2.51 | 0.4 | 0.14 | 0.4502863092 | 0.3904216554 | 0.130661114 | 0.0208224883 | 0.0072878709 |
1972 | 19.3 | 8.86 | 7.35 | 2.54 | 0.4 | 0.14 | 0.4590673575 | 0.3808290155 | 0.1316062176 | 0.0207253886 | 0.007253886 |
1973 | 19.35 | 8.79 | 7.36 | 2.62 | 0.42 | 0.15 | 0.4542635659 | 0.3803617571 | 0.1354005168 | 0.0217054264 | 0.007751938 |
1974 | 18.52 | 8.45 | 7.16 | 2.41 | 0.38 | 0.13 | 0.4562634989 | 0.3866090713 | 0.1301295896 | 0.0205183585 | 0.0070194384 |
1975 | 17.14 | 7.77 | 6.92 | 2.02 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 0.4533255543 | 0.4037339557 | 0.1178529755 | 0.0180863477 | 0.0070011669 |
1976 | 16.34 | 7.17 | 6.8 | 1.97 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.4388004896 | 0.4161566707 | 0.1205630355 | 0.017747858 | 0.0067319461 |
1977 | 15.5 | 6.59 | 6.56 | 1.98 | 0.28 | 0.1 | 0.4251612903 | 0.4232258065 | 0.1277419355 | 0.0180645161 | 0.0064516129 |
1978 | 14.95 | 6.22 | 6.35 | 2.02 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 0.4160535117 | 0.4247491639 | 0.1351170569 | 0.0180602007 | 0.0060200669 |
1979 | 14.25 | 5.94 | 5.95 | 2.02 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.4168421053 | 0.4175438596 | 0.141754386 | 0.018245614 | 0.0056140351 |
1980 | 13.57 | 5.75 | 5.53 | 1.96 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.4237288136 | 0.4075165807 | 0.1444362564 | 0.0191599116 | 0.0058953574 |
1981 | 13.07 | 5.61 | 5.22 | 1.91 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 0.4292272379 | 0.3993879112 | 0.1461361897 | 0.0198928845 | 0.0061208875 |
1982 | 12.86 | 5.51 | 5.1 | 1.91 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 0.4284603421 | 0.3965785381 | 0.1485225505 | 0.0209953344 | 0.0062208398 |
1983 | 12.72 | 5.47 | 4.97 | 1.92 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 0.4300314465 | 0.3907232704 | 0.1509433962 | 0.0212264151 | 0.0062893082 |
1984 | 12.48 | 5.31 | 4.87 | 1.93 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 0.4254807692 | 0.390224359 | 0.1546474359 | 0.0224358974 | 0.0064102564 |
1985 | 11.92 | 5.01 | 4.69 | 1.88 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.4203020134 | 0.3934563758 | 0.1577181208 | 0.0226510067 | 0.0058724832 |
1986 | 11.45 | 4.85 | 4.47 | 1.8 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.423580786 | 0.3903930131 | 0.1572052402 | 0.023580786 | 0.0061135371 |
1987 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 4.32 | 1.76 | 0.26 | 0.07 | 0.4234234234 | 0.3891891892 | 0.1585585586 | 0.0234234234 | 0.0063063063 |
1988 | 10.79 | 4.55 | 4.18 | 1.73 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 0.421686747 | 0.3873957368 | 0.1603336423 | 0.0240963855 | 0.0055607044 |
1989 | 10.2 | 4.38 | 3.89 | 1.63 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.4294117647 | 0.381372549 | 0.1598039216 | 0.0245098039 | 0.0058823529 |
1990 | 9.96 | 4.34 | 3.75 | 1.57 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.4357429719 | 0.3765060241 | 0.1576305221 | 0.0251004016 | 0.0060240964 |
1991 | 9.95 | 4.49 | 3.66 | 1.5 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 0.4512562814 | 0.367839196 | 0.1507537688 | 0.024120603 | 0.0060301508 |
1992 | 9.8 | 4.51 | 3.58 | 1.42 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.4602040816 | 0.3653061224 | 0.1448979592 | 0.0234693878 | 0.006122449 |
1993 | 9.61 | 4.51 | 3.49 | 1.34 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.4693028096 | 0.3631633715 | 0.1394380853 | 0.02289282 | 0.0052029136 |
1994 | 9.98 | 4.75 | 3.6 | 1.34 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.4759519038 | 0.3607214429 | 0.1342685371 | 0.0230460922 | 0.006012024 |
1995 | 9.55 | 4.56 | 3.45 | 1.26 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 0.477486911 | 0.3612565445 | 0.1319371728 | 0.0230366492 | 0.0062827225 |
1996 | 9.68 | 4.61 | 3.57 | 1.24 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 0.4762396694 | 0.3688016529 | 0.1280991736 | 0.0216942149 | 0.0061983471 |
1997 | 9.54 | 4.58 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.4800838574 | 0.3668763103 | 0.1257861635 | 0.0220125786 | 0.0052410901 |
1998 | 9.61 | 4.66 | 3.51 | 1.18 | 0.2 | 0.05 | 0.4849115505 | 0.3652445369 | 0.1227887617 | 0.0208116545 | 0.0052029136 |
1999 | 9.39 | 4.62 | 3.41 | 1.12 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.4920127796 | 0.3631522897 | 0.1192758253 | 0.0202342918 | 0.0053248136 |
2000 | 9.49 | 4.65 | 3.47 | 1.12 | 0.2 | 0.05 | 0.4899894626 | 0.3656480506 | 0.1180189673 | 0.0210748156 | 0.0052687039 |
2001 | 9.31 | 4.56 | 3.41 | 1.1 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 0.4897959184 | 0.3662728249 | 0.1181525242 | 0.0204081633 | 0.0053705693 |
2002 | 9.16 | 4.54 | 3.34 | 1.04 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.4956331878 | 0.364628821 | 0.1135371179 | 0.019650655 | 0.0054585153 |
2003 | 8.91 | 4.34 | 3.32 | 1.02 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.4870931538 | 0.3726150393 | 0.1144781145 | 0.0202020202 | 0.0056116723 |
2004 | 8.81 | 4.26 | 3.31 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.4835414302 | 0.3757094211 | 0.113507378 | 0.020431328 | 0.0056753689 |
2005 | 8.43 | 4.07 | 3.17 | 0.97 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.4827995255 | 0.3760379597 | 0.1150652432 | 0.0201660735 | 0.0059311981 |
2006 | 8.67 | 4.16 | 3.24 | 1.03 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.4798154556 | 0.3737024221 | 0.1188004614 | 0.0207612457 | 0.0057670127 |
2007 | 8.64 | 4.12 | 3.2 | 1.07 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.4768518519 | 0.3703703704 | 0.1238425926 | 0.0219907407 | 0.0069444444 |
2008 | 8.66 | 4.11 | 3.19 | 1.09 | 0.2 | 0.06 | 0.474595843 | 0.3683602771 | 0.1258660508 | 0.0230946882 | 0.0069284065 |
2009 | 8.5 | 4.07 | 3.1 | 1.07 | 0.2 | 0.06 | 0.4788235294 | 0.3647058824 | 0.1258823529 | 0.0235294118 | 0.0070588235 |
Mean (1968-2009) | 12.2947619048 | 5.5630952381 | 4.7483333333 | 1.644047619 | 0.2595238095 | 0.08 | 0.4556327314 | 0.3829420791 | 0.1337623587 | 0.0213415441 | 0.0063137007 |
Geometric mean (1968-2009) | 14.2564922903 | 5.3696471539 | 4.5153054 | 1.5692807595 | 0.2509251848 | 0.0738468184 | 0.4549327532 | 0.3825503349 | 0.1329542139 | 0.0212591409 | 0.0062565259 |
Median (1968-2009) | 10.495 | 4.68 | 4.035 | 1.68 | 0.255 | 0.06 | 0.4555253665 | 0.3805953863 | 0.1303953518 | 0.0209928233 | 0.0061172123 |
Standard deviation (1968-2009) | 3.7176403729 | 1.6032626614 | 1.5746713427 | 0.5009116544 | 0.0712245635 | 0.0354758592 | 0.0254953152 | 0.0177110054 | 0.0150539022 | 0.0018880947 | 0.0008986095 |
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1968-2009) | -0.2828166275 | -0.114746779 | -0.1210153148 | -0.0393963212 | -0.0053075115 | -0.0025070902 | 0.0013334093 | -0.0010227596 | -0.0003296164 | 4.68163588958831E-005 | -4.3616249428809E-005 |
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1968-2009) | 0.9781332364 | 0.9809732791 | 0.9755395455 | 0.9756427142 | 0.9803586992 | 0.9718051041 | 1.0029035336 | 0.9973483256 | 0.9974538007 | 1.0022752143 | 0.9935303984 |
Total fertility rate
Total fertility rate broken down by birth order
The columns TFR1, TFR2, TFR3, and TFR4 describe the total fertility rates at the respective birth orders 1, 2, 3, and 4. The column TFR5+ describes the total fertility rate at higher birth orders (combined). The corresponding "proportion" columns divide the corresponding birth order TFR column by the TFR column (the total across all birth orders). For each row, the proportion columns add up to 1.
Year | TFR | TFR1 | TFR2 | TFR3 | TFR4 | TFR5+ | TFR1 proportion | TFR2 proportion | TFR3 proportion | TFR4 proportion | TFR5+ proportion |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1947 | 4.566 | ||||||||||
1948 | 4.444 | ||||||||||
1949 | 4.357 | ||||||||||
1950 | 3.672 | ||||||||||
1951 | 3.281 | ||||||||||
1952 | 2.995 | ||||||||||
1953 | 2.713 | ||||||||||
1954 | 2.502 | ||||||||||
1955 | 2.383 | ||||||||||
1956 | 2.236 | ||||||||||
1957 | 2.058 | ||||||||||
1958 | 2.129 | ||||||||||
1959 | 2.061 | ||||||||||
1960 | 2.008 | ||||||||||
1961 | 1.963 | ||||||||||
1962 | 1.974 | ||||||||||
1963 | 2.001 | ||||||||||
1964 | 2.045 | ||||||||||
1965 | 2.145 | ||||||||||
1966 | 1.579 | ||||||||||
1967 | 2.224 | ||||||||||
1968 | 2.127 | 0.96 | 0.843 | 0.255 | 0.047 | 0.021 | 0.4513399154 | 0.3963328632 | 0.119887165 | 0.02209685 | 0.0098730606 |
1969 | 2.119 | 0.936 | 0.842 | 0.274 | 0.048 | 0.02 | 0.4417177914 | 0.397357244 | 0.1293062765 | 0.0226521944 | 0.0094384143 |
1970 | 2.129 | 0.938 | 0.842 | 0.283 | 0.047 | 0.019 | 0.4405824331 | 0.3954908408 | 0.1329262565 | 0.0220760921 | 0.0089243776 |
1971 | 2.153 | 0.929 | 0.86 | 0.297 | 0.048 | 0.018 | 0.4314909429 | 0.3994426382 | 0.1379470506 | 0.0222944728 | 0.0083604273 |
1972 | 2.138 | 0.934 | 0.837 | 0.3 | 0.049 | 0.018 | 0.4368568756 | 0.3914873714 | 0.1403180543 | 0.0229186155 | 0.0084190833 |
1973 | 2.135 | 0.925 | 0.829 | 0.31 | 0.051 | 0.019 | 0.4332552693 | 0.3882903981 | 0.1451990632 | 0.0238875878 | 0.0088992974 |
1974 | 2.04 | 0.902 | 0.793 | 0.283 | 0.046 | 0.016 | 0.4421568627 | 0.3887254902 | 0.1387254902 | 0.0225490196 | 0.0078431373 |
1975 | 1.9 | 0.855 | 0.758 | 0.235 | 0.037 | 0.015 | 0.45 | 0.3989473684 | 0.1236842105 | 0.0194736842 | 0.0078947368 |
1976 | 1.84 | 0.821 | 0.746 | 0.226 | 0.034 | 0.013 | 0.4461956522 | 0.4054347826 | 0.122826087 | 0.0184782609 | 0.0070652174 |
1977 | 1.786 | 0.786 | 0.731 | 0.224 | 0.033 | 0.012 | 0.4400895857 | 0.4092945129 | 0.1254199328 | 0.0184770437 | 0.006718925 |
1978 | 1.774 | 0.776 | 0.727 | 0.228 | 0.031 | 0.011 | 0.4374295378 | 0.4098083427 | 0.1285231116 | 0.0174746336 | 0.0062006764 |
1979 | 1.751 | 0.773 | 0.707 | 0.23 | 0.031 | 0.01 | 0.4414620217 | 0.4037692747 | 0.1313535123 | 0.017704169 | 0.0057110223 |
1980 | 1.731 | 0.779 | 0.685 | 0.228 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.450028885 | 0.3957250144 | 0.1317157712 | 0.0173310225 | 0.0057770075 |
1981 | 1.726 | 0.786 | 0.673 | 0.228 | 0.031 | 0.009 | 0.4553881808 | 0.3899188876 | 0.1320973349 | 0.0179606025 | 0.0052143685 |
1982 | 1.755 | 0.793 | 0.684 | 0.237 | 0.032 | 0.009 | 0.4518518519 | 0.3897435897 | 0.135042735 | 0.0182336182 | 0.0051282051 |
1983 | 1.788 | 0.805 | 0.692 | 0.247 | 0.034 | 0.009 | 0.4502237136 | 0.3870246085 | 0.1381431767 | 0.01901566 | 0.005033557 |
1984 | 1.8 | 0.796 | 0.701 | 0.258 | 0.036 | 0.01 | 0.4422222222 | 0.3894444444 | 0.1433333333 | 0.02 | 0.0055555556 |
1985 | 1.757 | 0.76 | 0.692 | 0.261 | 0.035 | 0.009 | 0.4325554923 | 0.3938531588 | 0.1485486625 | 0.0199203187 | 0.0051223677 |
1986 | 1.719 | 0.742 | 0.673 | 0.259 | 0.036 | 0.009 | 0.431646306 | 0.3915066899 | 0.1506689936 | 0.0209424084 | 0.0052356021 |
1987 | 1.689 | 0.723 | 0.661 | 0.261 | 0.036 | 0.009 | 0.4280639432 | 0.3913558319 | 0.1545293073 | 0.0213143872 | 0.0053285968 |
1988 | 1.657 | 0.702 | 0.647 | 0.263 | 0.037 | 0.009 | 0.4236572118 | 0.3904646952 | 0.1587205794 | 0.0223295112 | 0.0054315027 |
1989 | 1.576 | 0.674 | 0.606 | 0.251 | 0.037 | 0.008 | 0.4276649746 | 0.3845177665 | 0.1592639594 | 0.0234771574 | 0.0050761421 |
1990 | 1.543 | 0.664 | 0.587 | 0.246 | 0.038 | 0.008 | 0.430330525 | 0.3804277382 | 0.1594296824 | 0.0246273493 | 0.0051847051 |
1991 | 1.537 | 0.682 | 0.573 | 0.237 | 0.037 | 0.008 | 0.4437215355 | 0.372804164 | 0.1541964867 | 0.0240728692 | 0.0052049447 |
1992 | 1.506 | 0.678 | 0.558 | 0.225 | 0.036 | 0.008 | 0.4501992032 | 0.3705179283 | 0.1494023904 | 0.0239043825 | 0.005312085 |
1993 | 1.464 | 0.671 | 0.539 | 0.212 | 0.035 | 0.008 | 0.4583333333 | 0.3681693989 | 0.1448087432 | 0.0239071038 | 0.0054644809 |
1994 | 1.507 | 0.698 | 0.552 | 0.212 | 0.036 | 0.009 | 0.4631718646 | 0.3662906437 | 0.1406768414 | 0.0238885202 | 0.0059721301 |
1995 | 1.426 | 0.662 | 0.522 | 0.197 | 0.035 | 0.009 | 0.4642356241 | 0.366058906 | 0.1381486676 | 0.0245441795 | 0.0063113604 |
1996 | 1.43 | 0.661 | 0.534 | 0.192 | 0.034 | 0.009 | 0.4622377622 | 0.3734265734 | 0.1342657343 | 0.0237762238 | 0.0062937063 |
1997 | 1.392 | 0.651 | 0.516 | 0.184 | 0.032 | 0.009 | 0.4676724138 | 0.3706896552 | 0.132183908 | 0.0229885057 | 0.0064655172 |
1998 | 1.388 | 0.659 | 0.511 | 0.179 | 0.031 | 0.008 | 0.4747838617 | 0.3681556196 | 0.128962536 | 0.0223342939 | 0.0057636888 |
1999 | 1.347 | 0.652 | 0.491 | 0.167 | 0.029 | 0.008 | 0.4840386043 | 0.3645137342 | 0.1239792131 | 0.0215293244 | 0.005939124 |
2000 | 1.359 | 0.66 | 0.496 | 0.165 | 0.03 | 0.008 | 0.4856512141 | 0.3649742458 | 0.1214128035 | 0.0220750552 | 0.0058866814 |
2001 | 1.336 | 0.655 | 0.485 | 0.159 | 0.029 | 0.008 | 0.4902694611 | 0.3630239521 | 0.119011976 | 0.0217065868 | 0.005988024 |
2002 | 1.318 | 0.658 | 0.475 | 0.15 | 0.027 | 0.008 | 0.4992412747 | 0.3603945372 | 0.1138088012 | 0.0204855842 | 0.0060698027 |
2003 | 1.29 | 0.637 | 0.474 | 0.145 | 0.026 | 0.008 | 0.4937984496 | 0.3674418605 | 0.1124031008 | 0.0201550388 | 0.0062015504 |
2004 | 1.288 | 0.636 | 0.476 | 0.142 | 0.026 | 0.008 | 0.4937888199 | 0.3695652174 | 0.1102484472 | 0.0201863354 | 0.0062111801 |
2005 | 1.254 | 0.62 | 0.463 | 0.139 | 0.025 | 0.007 | 0.4944178628 | 0.3692185008 | 0.1108452951 | 0.0199362041 | 0.0055821372 |
2006 | 1.313 | 0.649 | 0.481 | 0.149 | 0.027 | 0.008 | 0.4942878903 | 0.3663366337 | 0.1134805788 | 0.0205635948 | 0.006092917 |
2007 | 1.331 | 0.655 | 0.483 | 0.157 | 0.028 | 0.008 | 0.4921111946 | 0.3628850488 | 0.1179564237 | 0.0210368144 | 0.0060105184 |
2008 | 1.36 | 0.667 | 0.491 | 0.163 | 0.03 | 0.009 | 0.4904411765 | 0.3610294118 | 0.1198529412 | 0.0220588235 | 0.0066176471 |
2009 | 1.361 | 0.674 | 0.486 | 0.161 | 0.03 | 0.009 | 0.4952240999 | 0.3570903747 | 0.1182953711 | 0.0220426157 | 0.0066127847 |
Mean (1968-2009) | 1.639047619 | 0.7448571429 | 0.6290952381 | 0.2195 | 0.0349285714 | 0.0106666667 | 0.4574722819 | 0.3816892847 | 0.133132143 | 0.0213434932 | 0.0063675302 |
Median (1968-2009) | 1.6165 | 0.7 | 0.6265 | 0.228 | 0.034 | 0.009 | 0.4502114584 | 0.3857711875 | 0.1321406215 | 0.0218746013 | 0.0059992712 |
Standard deviation (1968-2009) | 0.2837342412 | 0.1034605077 | 0.1298717584 | 0.0486637292 | 0.0068588304 | 0.0039673464 | 0.0237216689 | 0.0153357426 | 0.0140492792 | 0.0020951576 | 0.0012821002 |
Slope for best linear fit (using linear regression) (1968-2009) | -0.0222746941 | -0.007759987 | -0.0103252573 | -0.0034965562 | -0.000432785 | -0.0002570294 | 0.001556969 | -0.00111562 | -0.0004130709 | 2.9638050840737E-005 | -5.68902263624509E-005 |
Multiplier for best logarithmic fit (using log-linear regression) (1968-2009) | 0.9866279019 | 0.9899364352 | 0.983742996 | 0.983361587 | 0.9881403735 | 0.9792000859 | 1.0033533749 | 0.997075994 | 0.9966894156 | 1.0015329706 | 0.9924715122 |
Data 1800 onward: lower quality data based on reconstruction from other data
The data here are lower quality than the other data, even for recent years. They are based on various reconstructions and estimates, and are not sufficiently reliable for calculating year-on-year changes. However, broad trends may still be discerned.
An example to illustrate the lower quality of the Gapminder data is that the Gapminder data does not pick the sudden fertility dip in 1966, whereas the HFD data does.
The data sets correlate highly. For the years 1947-2009, where both data sets are available, the correlation is 0.993, indicating near perfect agreement in the trend. The values themselves differ only slightly, both additively and multiplicatively, as the table below shows. If we exclude the anomalous year 1966 from the assessment, the correlation rises to 0.996.
Year | Japan's TFR according to Gapminder (low quality data) | Japan's TFR according to HFD (high quality data) | Difference | Ratio |
---|---|---|---|---|
1800 | 4.08032 | |||
1801 | ||||
1802 | ||||
1803 | ||||
1804 | ||||
1805 | ||||
1806 | ||||
1807 | ||||
1808 | ||||
1809 | ||||
1810 | ||||
1811 | ||||
1812 | 4.42864 | |||
1813 | ||||
1814 | ||||
1815 | ||||
1816 | ||||
1817 | ||||
1818 | ||||
1819 | ||||
1820 | ||||
1821 | ||||
1822 | ||||
1823 | ||||
1824 | ||||
1825 | ||||
1826 | ||||
1827 | ||||
1828 | ||||
1829 | ||||
1830 | ||||
1831 | ||||
1832 | ||||
1833 | ||||
1834 | ||||
1835 | ||||
1836 | ||||
1837 | ||||
1838 | 4.5406 | |||
1839 | ||||
1840 | ||||
1841 | ||||
1842 | ||||
1843 | ||||
1844 | ||||
1845 | ||||
1846 | ||||
1847 | ||||
1848 | ||||
1849 | ||||
1850 | ||||
1851 | ||||
1852 | ||||
1853 | ||||
1854 | ||||
1855 | ||||
1856 | ||||
1857 | ||||
1858 | ||||
1859 | ||||
1860 | ||||
1861 | ||||
1862 | ||||
1863 | 4.83916 | |||
1864 | ||||
1865 | ||||
1866 | ||||
1867 | ||||
1868 | ||||
1869 | ||||
1870 | ||||
1871 | ||||
1872 | ||||
1873 | 3.4143658113 | |||
1874 | 3.5178314419 | |||
1875 | 3.7395435076 | |||
1876 | 3.754324312 | |||
1877 | 3.6656394857 | |||
1878 | 3.5769546594 | |||
1879 | 3.5473930507 | |||
1880 | 3.5917354638 | |||
1881 | 3.7691051163 | |||
1882 | 3.6656394857 | |||
1883 | 3.9612555733 | |||
1884 | 3.7986667251 | |||
1885 | 3.9760363776 | |||
1886 | 4.0351595951 | |||
1887 | 4.0351595951 | |||
1888 | 4.4342413133 | |||
1889 | 4.537706944 | |||
1890 | 4.1829676389 | |||
1891 | 3.990817182 | |||
1892 | 4.4046797046 | |||
1893 | 4.2568716608 | |||
1894 | 4.3455564871 | |||
1895 | 4.3603372915 | |||
1896 | 4.5081453352 | |||
1897 | 4.655953379 | |||
1898 | 4.7150765965 | |||
1899 | 4.7298574009 | |||
1900 | 4.6855149878 | |||
1901 | 5.0106926841 | |||
1902 | 4.966350271 | |||
1903 | 4.8333230316 | |||
1904 | 4.6116109659 | |||
1905 | 4.5229261396 | |||
1906 | 4.3751180958 | |||
1907 | 5.0254734885 | |||
1908 | 5.1289391191 | |||
1909 | 5.1585007279 | |||
1910 | 5.0106926841 | |||
1911 | 5.1880623366 | |||
1912 | 5.084596706 | |||
1913 | 5.0698159016 | |||
1914 | 5.1437199235 | |||
1915 | 4.9072270534 | |||
1916 | 4.9811310753 | |||
1917 | 4.9515694666 | |||
1918 | 4.8333230316 | |||
1919 | 4.774199814 | |||
1920 | 5.35 | |||
1921 | 5.22 | |||
1922 | 5.12 | |||
1923 | 5.26 | |||
1924 | 5.07 | |||
1925 | 5.22 | |||
1926 | 5.19 | |||
1927 | 5 | |||
1928 | 5.09 | |||
1929 | 4.87 | |||
1930 | 4.82 | |||
1931 | 4.76 | |||
1932 | 4.86 | |||
1933 | 4.63 | |||
1934 | 4.39 | |||
1935 | 4.59 | |||
1936 | 4.34 | |||
1937 | 4.45 | |||
1938 | 3.88 | |||
1939 | 3.8 | |||
1940 | 4.14 | |||
1941 | 4.36 | |||
1942 | 4.18 | |||
1943 | 4.11 | |||
1944 | 3.95 | |||
1945 | 3.11 | |||
1946 | 3.37 | |||
1947 | 4.51 | 4.566 | 0.056 | 1.0124168514 |
1948 | 4.38 | 4.444 | 0.064 | 1.0146118721 |
1949 | 4.3 | 4.357 | 0.057 | 1.013255814 |
1950 | 3.51 | 3.672 | 0.162 | 1.0461538462 |
1951 | 3.367 | 3.281 | -0.086 | 0.9744579745 |
1952 | 3.096 | 2.995 | -0.101 | 0.967377261 |
1953 | 2.856 | 2.713 | -0.143 | 0.949929972 |
1954 | 2.647 | 2.502 | -0.145 | 0.9452210049 |
1955 | 2.468 | 2.383 | -0.085 | 0.9655591572 |
1956 | 2.32 | 2.236 | -0.084 | 0.9637931034 |
1957 | 2.201 | 2.058 | -0.143 | 0.935029532 |
1958 | 2.11 | 2.129 | 0.019 | 1.0090047393 |
1959 | 2.044 | 2.061 | 0.017 | 1.0083170254 |
1960 | 2.001 | 2.008 | 0.007 | 1.0034982509 |
1961 | 1.976 | 1.963 | -0.013 | 0.9934210526 |
1962 | 1.965 | 1.974 | 0.009 | 1.0045801527 |
1963 | 1.965 | 2.001 | 0.036 | 1.0183206107 |
1964 | 1.97 | 2.045 | 0.075 | 1.038071066 |
1965 | 1.98 | 2.145 | 0.165 | 1.0833333333 |
1966 | 1.997 | 1.579 | -0.418 | 0.790686029 |
1967 | 2.02 | 2.224 | 0.204 | 1.100990099 |
1968 | 2.048 | 2.127 | 0.079 | 1.0385742188 |
1969 | 2.077 | 2.119 | 0.042 | 1.0202214733 |
1970 | 2.101 | 2.129 | 0.028 | 1.0133269871 |
1971 | 2.113 | 2.153 | 0.04 | 1.0189304307 |
1972 | 2.109 | 2.138 | 0.029 | 1.0137505927 |
1973 | 2.087 | 2.135 | 0.048 | 1.0229995208 |
1974 | 2.048 | 2.04 | -0.008 | 0.99609375 |
1975 | 1.997 | 1.9 | -0.097 | 0.9514271407 |
1976 | 1.94 | 1.84 | -0.1 | 0.9484536082 |
1977 | 1.885 | 1.786 | -0.099 | 0.9474801061 |
1978 | 1.838 | 1.774 | -0.064 | 0.965179543 |
1979 | 1.802 | 1.751 | -0.051 | 0.9716981132 |
1980 | 1.777 | 1.731 | -0.046 | 0.9741136747 |
1981 | 1.761 | 1.726 | -0.035 | 0.980124929 |
1982 | 1.751 | 1.755 | 0.004 | 1.0022844089 |
1983 | 1.741 | 1.788 | 0.047 | 1.0269959793 |
1984 | 1.73 | 1.8 | 0.07 | 1.0404624277 |
1985 | 1.715 | 1.757 | 0.042 | 1.0244897959 |
1986 | 1.695 | 1.719 | 0.024 | 1.014159292 |
1987 | 1.67 | 1.689 | 0.019 | 1.0113772455 |
1988 | 1.641 | 1.657 | 0.016 | 1.0097501523 |
1989 | 1.607 | 1.576 | -0.031 | 0.9807093964 |
1990 | 1.571 | 1.543 | -0.028 | 0.9821769574 |
1991 | 1.535 | 1.537 | 0.002 | 1.0013029316 |
1992 | 1.499 | 1.506 | 0.007 | 1.0046697799 |
1993 | 1.467 | 1.464 | -0.003 | 0.9979550102 |
1994 | 1.438 | 1.507 | 0.069 | 1.0479833102 |
1995 | 1.413 | 1.426 | 0.013 | 1.0092002831 |
1996 | 1.392 | 1.43 | 0.038 | 1.0272988506 |
1997 | 1.372 | 1.392 | 0.02 | 1.0145772595 |
1998 | 1.354 | 1.388 | 0.034 | 1.0251107829 |
1999 | 1.337 | 1.347 | 0.01 | 1.0074794316 |
2000 | 1.322 | 1.359 | 0.037 | 1.0279878971 |
2001 | 1.31 | 1.336 | 0.026 | 1.0198473282 |
2002 | 1.303 | 1.318 | 0.015 | 1.0115118956 |
2003 | 1.3 | 1.29 | -0.01 | 0.9923076923 |
2004 | 1.301 | 1.288 | -0.013 | 0.9900076864 |
2005 | 1.307 | 1.254 | -0.053 | 0.9594491201 |
2006 | 1.317 | 1.313 | -0.004 | 0.9969627942 |
2007 | 1.329 | 1.331 | 0.002 | 1.0015048909 |
2008 | 1.343 | 1.36 | 0.017 | 1.0126582278 |
2009 | 1.359 | 1.361 | 0.002 | 1.0014716703 |
2010 | 1.374 | |||
2011 | 1.389 | |||
2012 | 1.405 | |||
Average (1947-2009) | -0.0033174603 | 0.9990808783 |